I'm on Eastern Michigan tonight. The line opened at -7.5. You can get it now at -6.5.
Akron is 80% passing team. They are 1-8 but the win was vs St. Francis (FCS team) and they won by 7 in overtime.
Akron has lost all 6 of of their 8 FBS games by > 7 points. One loss was by 6 (@Kent St.) and one by 3 Bowling Green) and both of those teams are worse than E. Michigan so I expect a bigger losing margin tonight.
Eastern Michigan can be up/down at times. Over their last 4 games, which have been against much much better than Akron, they are 2-2, losing their last game to a very good Toledo team (1st in MAC-West) by 3. E. Mich was ahead going into the 4th and gave up 10 pts in the 4Q to barely lose.
E. Mich scores ~ 25 ppg against simliar opponents. Akron gives up ~35 ppg against simliar opponents.
Best stat: E. Mich is 97% Redzone scoring (3rd in country). Akron is 71st.
Another MAC-anation game I like tonight is Toledo.
Ball St. @ Toledo. The line started out at Toledo -11 dropped to -10 and settled at -10.5 so far.
D. Finn (QB) Toledo will likely not play and the line accounts for that. Gleason will do fine if not great in his 2nd start. Gleason was 15 of 27 for 238 yds and 3TDs last week vs E. Mich.
This is a big game for the conference title. If Toledo wins at home they pretty much wrap up the MAC-West. If Ball St. wins it's a dog fight for 2 more weeks for MAC-West title and a place in the conf championship game.
Toledo is a much better team than Ball St on both sides of the ball.
Toledo Offense (75th), Defense (62nd) - per SP+rankings
Ball St. Offense (112th), Defense (95th)
Toledo, over the last 5 opponents that are similar to Ball St, are 4-1. Two of those games were at home and they won those games by 21 points each. Note: the one loss (@Buffalo) was Finn's last game and he threw 4 INTs. They were ahead 27-10 going into 4Q and lost by giving up 24 points to Buffalo.
This should be a good cover for the Rockets tonight.