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📢March Madness 2022 *TOURNAMENT IN-GAME THREAD*🏀

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Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
46,460
OK Wager, in another thread, you mentioned you liked Arkansas.
For tomorrow/Thursday

Arizona -1.5
Maybe just maybe Arkansas +9.5

Arkansas/Gonzaga an interesting game

Pure athleticism (Arkansas) vs Purely skilled (Gonzaga)

Sorry for the long write-up

I've looked at this game a little more closely, and I like the play at +9.5.

Arkansas: Arkansas has shown an ability to keep games close against top rated teams. In the last 6 weeks, they have not lost to a top 20 team (Tenn x2, Auburn, Kentucky) by more than 4. They actually won 3 of these games and lost once to Tenn by 4. Their only double digit loss during that time was to Tx A&M, who is playing out of sight the last several weeks.

Zags: When the Zags play against competition similar to Arkansas, they win by an avg of 14 pts (actually lost one game to St. Marys). Their last opponent, Memphis, is also pretty athletic and only lost by 4 to Zags in the last round. Usually you see tighter games in the tourny due to the "elimination" aspect so the 14 pts avg win might be arguably around 10 pts today.

Concern: Timme/Holmgren (Zags) - Two giants that Ark does not match up well with. Ark is ~2-3" shorter on average than Zags in all positions (lets forget about 5'-7" Razorback Lykes for a min). This is a huge advantage. Forget about winning the boards. Ark played a similar team in Auburn (2 big men in #5 position - Kessler/Smith) on Feb 8th and won by 4 in OT. That game had poor shooting by both teams and Ark won at the FT line with 32 shots vs 17 for the Tigers so its a tough comparison.

I think Arkansas can stay within the spread against the Zags but they will need to RUN. Transition ball is obviously a requirement for them to have a chance.
 

mikesmith99

mikesmith99

Joined
Jan 8, 2022
Messages
2,908
Yeah I'm torn on it think I'm backing off
I came to the same conclusion
OK Wager, in another thread, you mentioned you liked Arkansas.


Sorry for the long write-up

I've looked at this game a little more closely, and I like the play at +9.5.

Arkansas: Arkansas has shown an ability to keep games close against top rated teams. In the last 6 weeks, they have not lost to a top 20 team (Tenn x2, Auburn, Kentucky) by more than 4. They actually won 3 of these games and lost once to Tenn by 4. Their only double digit loss during that time was to Tx A&M, who is playing out of sight the last several weeks.

Zags: When the Zags play against competition similar to Arkansas, they win by an avg of 14 pts (actually lost one game to St. Marys). Their last opponent, Memphis, is also pretty athletic and only lost by 4 to Zags in the last round. Usually you see tighter games in the tourny due to the "elimination" aspect so the 14 pts avg win might be arguably around 10 pts today.

Concern: Timme/Holmgren (Zags) - Two giants that Ark does not match up well with. Ark is ~2-3" shorter on average than Zags in all positions (lets forget about 5'-7" Razorback Lykes for a min). This is a huge advantage. Forget about winning the boards. Ark played a similar team in Auburn (2 big men in #5 position - Kessler/Smith) on Feb 8th and won by 4 in OT. That game had poor shooting by both teams and Ark won at the FT line with 32 shots vs 17 for the Tigers so its a tough comparison.

I think Arkansas can stay within the spread against the Zags but they will need to RUN. Transition ball is obviously a requirement for them to have a chance.
Lovig this input though. Keep em coming Tank...dont apologize for long write ups. Thats what the forums craves!!
 

mikesmith99

mikesmith99

Joined
Jan 8, 2022
Messages
2,908
Arkansas still close because of a lot of easy misses by Zags
I think Tank had the right betting angle for this one. My personal fear didnt let me pull the trigger but rooting for him and anyone tailing.

Having said that...just ran my numbers for the later games and I cant believe Im saying this but....I think I like Duke tonight... and not because of the steam on CK's report, although that helps
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
57,718
I think Tank had the right betting angle for this one. My personal fear didnt let me pull the trigger but rooting for him and anyone tailing.

Having said that...just ran my numbers for the later games and I cant believe Im saying this but....I think I like Duke tonight... and not because of the steam on CK's report, although that helps
I leaned Arkansas with the points but couldn't pull the trigger

As we speak Gonzaga still missing easy buckets
 
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