La-Lafeyette @ Marshall
The ND Game:
Ok lets get the big issue out of the way when capping this game. Yes, Marshall did beat Notre Dame in week 2. After watching Marshall in subsequent weeks, I think everyone would agree this was 100% a "fluke". Although ND wasn't as good as everyone thought, Marshall winning that game does not make them a good team. See their performance against a very bad Bowling Green team and a pretty bad Troy team (both losses).
Off/Def stats:
- I see these teams as evenly matched. The only outstanding part of either team's play on offense or defense is that Marshall's rush-D is 15th in the country, allowing 102 yd/gm. But, their pass-D is 110th out of 131 teams. Fortunately for La-Laf they mainly rely on passing to win games (64% of yards from pass game).
- YPPT (Yards per point stats) support La-Laf in this matchup. I'm not a huge believer in YPPT as a key factor but I like with it supportsmy plays.
Season YPPT: La-Laf 4.7 vs -0.8 for Marshall
Last 3 games YPPT: La-Laf 2.0 vs -0.8 for Marshall
Vs Similar Strength Opponents:
La-Laf played S. Alabama at home and only lost by 3 in week 5 of the season. S. Alabama is on par with Marshall as far as team strength. Marshall has not played anyone that is "close" to La-Laf level of play. The closest was a 16-7 loss to Troy in week 4.
So someone may bring up Lafayette's loss to La-Monroe. Yep a bad loss by by 4 that they should have won. The Ragin' Cajuns lead the entire game until 6 minutes left. I would also counter that with Marshall losing to just as bad a Bowling Green team in OT. The Herd had to come from behind to force OT but still lost. They followed that up with a bad loss to another poor Sun Belt team, Troy.
IMO this should be a 3-4 pt spread. 10.5 is just to much value to pass up. Of course there are risks with the Cajuns but I think they will cover tonight.
La-Laf +10.5 -115 Bookmaker
