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🏈Monday: Eagles Going For 9-0/All Sports *CHAT & IN-GAME ACTION*📢

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Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
47,190
Tank, why do you like penn st today??
penn st open- 9.5 and keep getting hit down
Sorry for the late reply.... tied up.

I have it open at -12. Dropping down to 5.5 is too much IMO.
  • 3 models I have have the spread at -8.5, -10, and -6 for Penn St. The Last model is extremely conservative. Anytime I get a 3 point or greater overlay on the 1st two models, I confirm that the last model is on the same side and then eval the game further.
  • Penn St. has won both its games by 25. They took the lead and kept it growing pretty much through the whole game. Winthrop was the better of the two teams they played and I have Butler rated slightly better than Winthrop.
  • Penn St returns top two scorers (Picket, Lundy and 3 out of the top 5 when you count Dread - love that name).

  • There's not a lot of data on Butler since they've only played New Orleans, a truly horrible team.
  • Butler returns only two (Harris, Taylor) of its top 5 leading scorers and they weren't huge scorers.
Early season games are tough since you have limited data but, I think this one is a cover at 5.5 spread. What do you hate about this game? Just the line move or something else?
 
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