🏆Rd 1 ArunSH vs Sharpsquare 🏆

[arunsh]

PM picks to me or if playing me than can PM to Genie/BobbyFK/Wags or if you don't trust us staff than an honorable guy like Tanko or Capitalist Pig.

Rules are setup to prevent fading/same plays. I encourage everyone to turn in the last 2 days that way you get the plays you wanted. You have to take into consideration that there is also a strategy in posting the plays 1st so your opponent WON'T be able to use them. This is match play. Totally different contest and if you are not seeing the advantages of posting the plays than you are not thinking of all the strategies. Your not only usually getting a better line but forcing your opponent to do something outside their norm.

Thanks for the comment, I will PM Genie in future last two days if applicable.

Honestly though I don't agree with your assessment about the advantage of picking first so your opponent (if trailing you I presume) can't use the same picks.

For one you can't be sure the line will be better/worse by time opponent decides what picks to make - if I or anyone could be sure which way a line would move, well we could be doing much more lucrative things instead of contests like this

Bigger thing though is that there are so many different games/sports to pick stuff from, preventing your opponent from making one particular pick isn't exactly likely to be earth shattering (and they can also make the opposite pick as you to give themselves a better chance to catch up if they are quite far behind).

Comparing that to the opportunity I had today, where I could have 100% locked up a win by making a particular pick is not even close to the same league as preventing your opponent from making one particular selection from one particular game by picking first.

Either way, in future rounds (should I be in any of them!), I'll be PM'ing my picks to Genie in the last two days most likely. Whether ahead of behind, it makes the contest feel more natural when neither side knows the others' picks at least until they've started so they can't strategize in any way based on what their opponent has done. Makes it purely about who picks best which is as it should be imo.

 

[Enikk]

I still don't get your strategy of not picking ANY late night +$$ play?? You gave your opponent the chance to beat you with his pick. At least if you made a selection and won than this game would not matter unless I am missing something. I bet on you and have you going almost all the way as did a lot of other posters. Just wondering

 

[arunsh]

You are right that once I know his pick, obviously I should have picked something, after all I would 100% lose if his pick wins, whereas I would still win 100% if his pick loses but still have a chance to win if I picked something and his pick wins.

But as I said, I was working under the assumption that I had no idea, what if anything he picked (if he made 1 pick or 3 picks and what juice each of them had). Given that, I thought my best chance was to not pick and just hope he couldn't gain the needed 1.13 units to pass me. If I had only been 0.9 units ahead, then I probably would have picked (again all of this under the assumption that I had no idea what, if any, picks he made).

Just my opinion, and I'm sure others would disagree saying "do whatever you can within the rules to win". And I can't really fault someone who would say that. But frankly I got annoyed by that several times over the years at SBR.

Say with their survivor over/under contests, with three or four people left, tons of people would wait until the very last minute to pick so that they could see what others picked and get an advantage from it. E.g. three people left, the other two have already picked the same side, you pick the other side giving you a 50% chance to win when in theory you should only have 33% chance to win in the grand scheme of things. Even though that might not be the side that you actually think will win, it's clearly the best EV play in that situation.

And as I said, that to me is not in the spirit of it, should be about making the best picks, changing/basing your decisions on your opponents' picks should not be the strategy. Again, 100% just my opinion, but that's why I really prefer that all picks be private until after they are decided (or at the very least until the game(s) in question have started).

Whether you or anyone else agrees/disagrees with me, I'm rather determined not to allow my opponent to strategize based on my picks in the final days. If I do pick in the last two days next week, rest assured I will be PM'ing my picks to avoid them doing so. And I would encourage everyone else to do so as well - keep it about who actually picks best, not strategizing based on what your opponent picked.

Again best I think if folks PM their picks to the mod in question, and when both folks have done so, then mod posts both person's picks so people can sweat their picks + anti-sweat their opponents' picks! But neither person's picks gets revealed (even if the games are done) until both players have sent their picks for the day.

 

[Enikk]

Great reply. I am just being that annoying fvcking reporter at the end of a game questioning a coaches strategy and at the same time learning other ways to think on the best way to close out a lead or if behind. Kind of like me in poker. i can get toward the end but when I am at the final table it turns into pure luck and no skill.

Your last paragraph, I was tempted to have it as everyone turns in picks and post after both do so but with different contests involved and the baller coin bets involved it takes the fun out of it. Also, just thought of having an early Saturday/Sunday dead-line. Some we can all discuss next time and put it all to a vote on what everyone wants. Right now it is more like the "golf match-play" do what you have to do to advance instead of the actual give us you best week of plays. At least for me, I am strategizing each day compared to throwing out my best 3 plays. Sometimes it bites you and sometimes it helps. gL this next rd!!

 

[arunsh]

Great reply. I am just being that annoying fvcking reporter at the end of a game questioning a coaches strategy and at the same time learning other ways to think on the best way to close out a lead or if behind. Kind of like me in poker. i can get toward the end but when I am at the final table it turns into pure luck and no skill.

Your last paragraph, I was tempted to have it as everyone turns in picks and post after both do so but with different contests involved and the baller coin bets involved it takes the fun out of it. Also, just thought of having an early Saturday/Sunday dead-line. Some we can all discuss next time and put it all to a vote on what everyone wants. Right now it is more like the "golf match-play" do what you have to do to advance instead of the actual give us you best week of plays. At least for me, I am strategizing each day compared to throwing out my best 3 plays. Sometimes it bites you and sometimes it helps. gL this next rd!!

Heh, no problem Enikk, I appreciate your feedback and attention to this. Always good to hear different opinions and perspectives, can be beneficial for future contests if nothing else!

Obviously different folks might look at things differently, and no doubt you are correct that from the standpoint of attempting to "win at all costs", I certainly did not take the optimal approach or even close.

Looking forward to next week, just hope I didn't use up all my luck this week! But again, I will definitely be PM'ing my picks on the last two days (should there be any) to Genie, and I would encourage all others to do the same.

 

[Enikk]

Heh, no problem Enikk, I appreciate your feedback and attention to this. Always good to hear different opinions and perspectives, can be beneficial for future contests if nothing else!

Obviously different folks might look at things differently, and no doubt you are correct that from the standpoint of attempting to "win at all costs", I certainly did not take the optimal approach or even close.

Looking forward to next week, just hope I didn't use up all my luck this week! But again, I will definitely be PM'ing my picks on the last two days (should there be any) to Genie, and I would encourage all others to do the same.

Why I got into doing the contests and running them over 20 years ago with rules where you pm/email is because I played against that asshole poster in a regular season long contest where he caught me with only a few days left and stood by the computer until I posted my plays than wrote the word "same' behind each and every days picks until the end.

On the other side of things, you had places that you could turn in your picks that ripped posters off like Cappersmall stealing all of the posters post-up funds. That is why I allow picks to be turned into a trusted posters like Tanko and Capitalist Pig along with Genie.