❓Am I The Only One Here Doing Much Live Betting?

[BMR Genie]

Let’s see how this one turns out

I have Under 99.5 (+100)

View attachment 36518

Another close game but still looking good at 3Q, WAS!

Good luck!

 

[Wagerallsports]

I ended up cashing out on that game genie

Twice

One at 99.5 and one at 96.5

Total ended at 98 so I should have kept the 99.5

 

[Wagerallsports]

Played this one that popped up right after the game above and hit Under 87.5

Game ended final score something like 38-37

 

[BMR Genie]

You're nailing it, WAS!

 

[Wagerallsports]

You're nailing it, WAS!

Where is @BigJay with “That’s what she said”

 

[BMR Genie]

Where is @BigJay with “That’s what she said”

He's preparing the meme lol

 

[KVB]

I like this thread, I plan to get involved.

 

[KVB]

An area of focus I would feel comfortable in posting will be contrarian plays or strong contrarian radar plays that take the lead early as dogs, only to give up the ass to the better, favored team, late.

Here, we buy the dog pregame, then the favorite if the become a dog or close enough during the game, to gaurantee a profit or take a freeroll position on one side.

There are pitfalls here, but if we are patient enough we can make only +EV plays, or very close to it.

We can also make a list of dog contenders, but not buy them pregame, and just buy the better team once they go down early. This way we don't get messy in selling back +EV, if we can squeeze any EV out to begin with.

 

[Wagerallsports]

An area of focus I would feel comfortable in posting will be contrarian plays or strong contrarian radar plays that take the lead early as dogs, only to give up the ass to the better, favored team,

I see that a lot with many of these games I follow, monitor, and wager live and I’d say much more so than what we see in American sports

 

[KVB]

You know those games.

The ones where the potentialy upset team comes out strong, hit's the favorite right in the mouth. Those games where the rookie dog bettor jumps for joy and counts his cash while the rookie favorite bettor rips up his ticket.

Only to find us at the game's end with it all knotted up and the favorite about to take control.

You know what I'm talking about.

The goal is to try to isolate those games, narrow the field, then strike at them.

 

[KVB]

Same thing with those UNDER games you @Wagerallsports were talking about that all of sudden go OVER or the games where a bunch of points come early showing an OVER then nothing rest of game to keep it just UNDER at the end.

 

[Wagerallsports]

You know those games.

The ones where the potentialy upset team comes out strong, hit's the favorite right in the mouth. Those games where the rookie dog bettor jumps for joy and counts his cash while the rookie favorite bettor rips up his ticket.

Only to find us at the game's end with it all knotted up and the favorite about to take control.

You know what I'm talking about.

The goal is to try to isolate those games, narrow the field, then strike at them.

Oh yeah

Like the football team that takes the opening drive down for a TD and surprisingly jumps on the Fav, but never scores again rest of the game lol

 

[Wagerallsports]

Same thing with those UNDER games you @Wagerallsports were talking about that all of sudden go OVER or the games where a bunch of points come early showing an OVER then nothing rest of game to keep it just UNDER at the end.

Yeah I fell for the soccer shenanigans yet again today on a live play late tied 0-0

 

[KVB]

Oh yeah

Like the football team that takes the opening drive down for a TD and surprisingly jumps on the Fav, but never scores again rest of the game lol

One of the problems with buying the dog pregame (opening the trade) is that sometimes nobody is fooled and even when the dog takes the lead, the pregame favorite just doesn't get cheap enough LIVE to close the trade.

Just how solid that pregame favorite is matters, just how contrarian it gets matters.

 

[jjgold]

Juice very wide

 

[KVB]

Juice very wide

True, but who cares as long as you get YOUR number.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Juice very wide

True, but who cares as long as you get YOUR number.

At least 70% of my my Live wagers are + money

But that’s because the majority are these very low scoring basketball games

The scores fluctuate so much at points there’s simply no reason to pay the juice

But at 5 minute mark in the 3rd those alternative options go away and only regular lines are offered

 

[Wagerallsports]

At least 70% of my my Live wagers are + money

But that’s because the majority are these very low scoring basketball games

The scores fluctuate so much at points there’s simply no reason to pay the juice

But at 5 minute mark in the 3rd those alternative options go away and only regular lines are offered

I’m not paying that much more for 1point (pic below)

Especially when I know in these matchups there isn’t going to be any big scoring bursts, and I can buy higher if total climbs a little, and sell as soon as it dips agsin

Unlike most ‘regular’ basketball games where there are scoring bursts, which would make the strategy above dangerous, it very rarely happens in these very low scoring affairs

The total fluctuates reasonably back & forth as it isuly slowly declines

If you see one of these oddball games with a total around 100pts, it’s usually for very good reason

 

[Wagerallsports]

I don’t usually dabble with these friendly matchups, but I monitored this one for nearly 3qtrs before taking a shot at under 115.5

 

[Wagerallsports]

Here we go let’s go with under 101.5 and 102.5 large