Phoenix/Skybook/Mania

[Ace7550]

In today's sportsbook world you have two options for attracting customers. You can offer bonuses or you can offer low juice. If you're not offering either than you're useless.

 

[tony_piker]

Ace, when you got that email about non-recreational play, did you have a balance? Are the confiscating it?

Good luck

 

[yves]

Just because I don't find them useful anymore.
BM/JB and BAS both have decent bonuses.
bet105 and prophetx both have low juice. It's gonna be a pretty rare occasion that BOL has a better number than both bet105 and prophetx on a game.
I'm also a little jaded. I think removing bonuses entirely was very stingy of them.

Agree. My usage of BOL has dropped significantly as well. They rarely have a good price on a game. So vanilla now.

 

[redrightred]

is bmr helping with any of these issues? i still have a giant rollover and they won't even let me bet anything that doesn't have ridiculous juice/edge, that's essentially bait/switch and theft of my balance

The story has changed now?

 

[milwaukee mike]

The story has changed now?

what part of my story changed? i can bet "major sports" 2 hours before game time, and no props, mma, golf, tennis, nba preseason, etc

 

[milwaukee mike]

• GAMES

NBA PRESEASON​

There is currently no game for this league.

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL​

There is currently no game for this league.

NCAA FOOTBALL​

There is currently no game for this league.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT​

There is currently no game for this league.

 

[mrmcnasty]

This happened to me too months ago when I was rolling through my balance. I had $200 limited but they bumped up to my usual 3k limits but only two hours before.

I eventually learned that if you called they would accept bets over the phone outside that two hour window. As long as you didn’t go over your usual bet limit.

 

[redrightred]

what part of my story changed? i can bet "major sports" 2 hours before game time, and no props, mma, golf, tennis, nba preseason, etc

You said before that they had paid people so it was a way too much to call them a stiff. Now you say they are stealing your money.

 

[redrightred]

The scary thing is, knock on wood, I think we are eventually going to see one of the books we would never expect to do this Fall at some point. I attached the quote from DK CEO Jason Robins, earlier this week. It all boils down to that and unfortunately, almost none of these customers are going offshore anymore. Offshore is filled with people like us, people that have been offshore for a while.

But now, you have all the people that have been turned away from the Domestics, coming offshore looking for a safe haven and you have a disproportionate userbase of of sharp people vs. losers. The sharp ratio is going up offshore and going down domestically through the controls domestic books have. All the tools and services now that make players 'advantaged players' with EV Filters, arbitrage screens and up to the second odds' screens, those people are coming onboard, a lot being pushed by affiliates to exploit edges.

This is NO Excuse for the books offshore to do what they are doing but simply put, they can't handle it. They don't have the automated risk management AI and trading staff that the Monopoly onshore has with DK and Flutter. As soon as they see a pulse, they show people the door.

It's a bad situation that I hate to say, is not going to get better. At least not until there's some great reset.

This was the inevitable end of online sports betting. The US going legal just accelerated the process. In the age of the internet, you can only have one line. The only book that can exist is the book that makes the line or the handful of books that can have a sharp line. Everybody else goes broke.

 

[Ace7550]

Ace, when you got that email about non-recreational play, did you have a balance? Are the confiscating it?

Good luck

I did and still do have a balance. They have sent me $1,000 and assured they will send more as long as I place at least 10 bets a week. Strange requirement being that they think I'm non-rec.

 

[sportsbettor5]

This was the inevitable end of online sports betting. The US going legal just accelerated the process. In the age of the internet, you can only have one line. The only book that can exist is the book that makes the line or the handful of books that can have a sharp line. Everybody else goes broke.

You do realize it is the offshores (BOL, Pinnacle) that make the lines on the major markets? Onshores other than Circa do not welcome sharps.

 

[redrightred]

You do realize it is the offshores (BOL, Pinnacle) that make the lines on the major markets? Onshores other than Circa do not welcome sharps.

Yes. That is why the US books cannot accept sharps. They would go out of business.

 

[titan]

Yes. That is why the US books cannot accept sharps. They would go out of business.

For the most part in terms of the amount of books that would probably go under with how they are run, this is true. Books that White Label Kambi Odds (And their flagships BetRivers/Parx), MGM and Fanatics would be in real rough shape. DK and Flutter would still do very well because they are in even better shape than offshore was before legalization with vast amounts of 'ideal' customers. It's just that they are beholden to the shareholder and with enormous costs from marketing and the first 3 years of customer acquisition costs, Wall Street wants to see results now.

 

[sportsbettor5]

Yes. That is why the US books cannot accept sharps. They would go out of business.

Your comment said we have reached the end of online sports betting, yet you also said the book that sets the line or has a sharp line can exist.

That's self-contradictory. The book that sets the line is online (BOL, Pinnacle).

 

[redrightred]

Your comment said we have reached the end of online sports betting, yet you also said the book that sets the line or has a sharp line can exist.

That's self-contradictory. The book that sets the line is online (BOL, Pinnacle).

That is what you thought I said. There is no end to sports betting. There will always be sports betting. The only books that can exist in an online world are the sharp books. That will be about four or five in the world, if not eventually just one.

 

[redrightred]

For the most part in terms of the amount of books that would probably go under with how they are run, this is true. Books that White Label Kambi Odds (And their flagships BetRivers/Parx), MGM and Fanatics would be in real rough shape. DK and Flutter would still do very well because they are in even better shape than offshore was before legalization with vast amounts of 'ideal' customers. It's just that they are beholden to the shareholder and with enormous costs from marketing and the first 3 years of customer acquisition costs, Wall Street wants to see results now.

They can exist because they don't take sharp action. If you do not take sharp action, you can make tons of money but your customer base gradually goes broke.

DraftKings could take sharp action if it wanted to right now but it does not have the tax structure to make a profit. This is a long term project.

 

[sportsbettor5]

That is what you thought I said. There is no end to sports betting.

You wrote: This was the inevitable end of online sports betting.

I think I get your meaning, though. I think you mean the final form of the industry.

 

[BigJay]

You wrote: This was the inevitable end of online sports betting.

I think I get your meaning, though. I think you mean the final form of the industry.

 

[redrightred]

You wrote: This was the inevitable end of online sports betting.

I think I get your meaning, though. I think you mean the final form of the industry.

Yes, final stage at which point you might get to the end of sportsbetting as a business and go back to what came before. Then you start the process all over again but the stages progress much faster.

 

[sportsbettor5]

Yes, final stage at which point you might get to the end of sportsbetting as a business and go back to what came before. Then you start the process all over again but the stages progress much faster.

I think reality is much simpler than you describe. The offshores that used to just copy lines and move off the big boys are in trouble because onshore is now more convenient for Joe Blow than it ever used to be. Thus, their player base became too sharp. Also, bonus abuse got too sophisticated for the Mickey Mouse offshores to deal with. Bonuses/promos were their lifeline in case sharps beat them, but they got killed there too.

At the same time, the big boys offshore will continue to thrive as they have for decades, so long as they insulate themselves carefully from government action. The only threats to BOL right now I see are US government action or internal laziness/incompetence.