pornhubcasin0
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So far Polymarket simply dgaf about KYC. Love it, but not sure this can last
JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!
- Thread starter KVB
- Start date
stormtrooper8
- Joined
- May 30, 2022
- Messages
- 14,849
If this is true, it will be a windfall for a lot of buinsesses who paid for the tariffs. Possibly $180B to be given back.
Not a big enough advantage.
Paper trail hasn't been an issue in my office for a long time. We know what's up.
Our Kalshi venture is up 622% since it began December. I mentioned the ton of EV we can get from Kalshi but it gets even better.
We can make markets and create liquidity. Kalshi will pay you for that. So this liquidity incentive program creates a situation where the fees for the transactions are basically reversed.
The FDIC insured accounts are also earning an annual interest rate calculated daily and paid monthly.
Another useful tool on the platform is the collateral return. I mention in the OP day trading and creating a hedge fund situation. Kalshi has a collateral return program.
Say I'm in a postion where I'm in the market for $130 across mutually exclusive positons or sometimes just a hedge, and the worst I can do is lose $30 in the end. Kalshi will only tie up the $30 at risk for the duration of the contracts and free up the rest of the original bets to be used elsewhere.
Think about that.
The EV is ripe for the taking. I can tell when some markets are dominated by sharper groups. They are out there. I currently have a few resting orders sitting out there, creating liqidity and commission free if they get taken.
So that's the game. I'm calculating EV, is the counterparty? If you take one of my sides, and I got the EV, where does that leave you?
Can you pick up what I'm putting down?
That's the game, but it's not necessarily an easy one. My office estimates that the biggest risk we take when creating market liqudity is adverse selection.
So far, we haven't been burned by someone coming along with a sharper stance. But we are good as a whole. That's "whole" with a W, hehehehe.
I have traded NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, NFL, NHL and once I traded the range of the S&P500 close, which I got right, lol.
Here's one of my biggest losses in the last two weeks. The biggest was basically a typo, and that sucked but has been overcome. I mean, that really sucked.
Anyway I had many contracts on the OVER 36.5 points on Hou/Pit playoff game.
I knew this would come late so I had to hold the contracts until late. Contracts were tanked, and it was late. I was hoping for a garbage Rogers TD and then they'd go for 2 so needed that to get the OVER. Then the pick six came and the score became 30-6, all I needed was the extra point. Contracts spiked!!!!
Here's what happened...
flyingillini
- Joined
- Jul 25, 2022
- Messages
- 27,620
True true , but if the player doesn’t understand and comprehend how to use “variance” at these exchanges , they will lose jn the end. It’s all about “variance “ and “knowing your market “Not a big enough advantage.
Paper trail hasn't been an issue in my office for a long time. We know what's up.
Our Kalshi venture is up 622% since it began December. I mentioned the ton of EV we can get from Kalshi but it gets even better.
We can make markets and create liquidity. Kalshi will pay you for that. So this liquidity incentive program creates a situation where the fees for the transactions are basically reversed.
The FDIC insured accounts are also earning an annual interest rate calculated daily and paid monthly.
Another useful tool on the platform is the collateral return. I mention in the OP day trading and creating a hedge fund situation. Kalshi has a collateral return program.
Say I'm in a postion where I'm in the market for $130 across mutually exclusive positons or sometimes just a hedge, and the worst I can do is lose $30 in the end. Kalshi will only tie up the $30 at risk for the duration of the contracts and free up the rest of the original bets to be used elsewhere.
Think about that.
The EV is ripe for the taking. I can tell when some markets are dominated by sharper groups. They are out there. I currently have a few resting orders sitting out there, creating liqidity and commission free if they get taken.
So that's the game. I'm calculating EV, is the counterparty? If you take one of my sides, and I got the EV, where does that leave you?
Can you pick up what I'm putting down?
That's the game, but it's not necessarily an easy one. My office estimates that the biggest risk we take when creating market liqudity is adverse selection.
So far, we haven't been burned by someone coming along with a sharper stance. But we are good as a whole. That's "whole" with a W, hehehehe.
I have traded NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, NFL, NHL and once I traded the range of the S&P500 close, which I got right, lol.
Here's one of my biggest losses in the last two weeks. The biggest was basically a typo, and that sucked but has been overcome. I mean, that really sucked.
Anyway I had many contracts on the OVER 36.5 points on Hou/Pit playoff game.
I knew this would come late so I had to hold the contracts until late. Contracts were tanked, and it was late. I was hoping for a garbage Rogers TD and then they'd go for 2 so needed that to get the OVER. Then the pick six came and the score became 30-6, all I needed was the extra point. Contracts spiked!!!!
Here's what happened...
I should qualify this. They don't pay for liquidity on every event and events with volume won't earn the maker. It's not happening with the markets I'm trading above.
But we have definitely taken advantage of the lack of fees when the limit orders are executed. I think it's worth the risk of adverse selection if done in a calculated and very fluid way.
Sorry, there will be no conversation. My account doesn't work.
flyingillini
- Joined
- Jul 25, 2022
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- 27,620
DiggityDaggityDo
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flyingillini
- Joined
- Jul 25, 2022
- Messages
- 27,620
Not when you break it down into particles, there is a huge difference. The average dart shooter on here has no idea to distinguish it though.
gauchojake
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2022
- Messages
- 1,276
KVB curious if you played around with ProphetX or any of the sweepstakes models before the idiots in CA banned them.
flyingillini
- Joined
- Jul 25, 2022
- Messages
- 27,620
KVB will have full access stored to his account on January 25th.
Exactly, it's a clown show of ignorance
That's great gold, too bad they aren't gamblers. If they were sports bettors worth a grain of salt, then they'd know that the vig doesn't matter, not at all, as long as you can get the numbers you want at the prices you want.
At Kalshi we can often get that, and it often comes because the vig is smaller.
The place is flowing with EV, especially in LIVE trading. There's enough EV to sell back and still sit pretty, lol.
Those math guys are also clearly not successful sports bettors as they aren't concerned about limits and risk management. While there are obviously liquidity constraint at some levels, there is pretty much no risk management in the sportsbook sense.
Again, we manage the risk and we make the market.
Also, your math guys are probably not very good at alternate line conversions, or they just sample the highest price transactions. There is definitely a right way and wrong way to use the platform.
Will be a surprise if this post gets posted, I never know what's going to happen.
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