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College Football Playoff Picks for Thursday: Dawgs to Bark Past Rebels
We are still 34-27 across All Sports with our write-ups and 20-13 in College Football despite our losing play on Tuesday. We now have plays in the Alabama vs. Indiana and Mississippi vs. Georgia College Football Playoff matchups Thursday.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Thursday, January 1st – 4:00pm ET
We expect the #1 team in the country to flex its muscles in one of the College Football Playoff quarterfinals on New Year's Day. Thus, we are giving the points with Indiana when they take on Alabama in the Rose Bowl.
Hoosiers Great on Both Sides of Ball
The Hoosiers are certainly worthy of their top ranking as they have a perfect 13-0 record after beating defending champion and previously unbeaten Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. They also boast the Heisman Trophy winner in quarterback Fernando Mendoza, although he was not the entire offense.
Yes, Mendoza was fantastic while completing 71.5% of his passes while averaging a hefty 9.0 yards per attempt, leading to a total of 2,980 passing yards with 33 touchdown passes vs. just six interceptions. But the Hoosiers also ranked 11th in the country in rushing, and metrically they led the nation in Rushing Success Rate. Add that rushing success to a Heisman quarterback and Indiana ranks seventh nationally in yards per play of any kind at 7.1!
Moreover, the Hoosiers are not all about offense like in past years, as they finished fourth in the country in total defense, third in rushing defense and 18th in passing defense. And it gets even better metrically where the Indiana defense leads the country in Havoc, a formula that combines sacks, turnovers and tackles-for-loss.
Tide with One-Dimensional Passing Offense
Alabama deserves credit for going into Norman and beating Oklahoma in the first round, but they still had a one-dimensional passing offense like they had all season. The Crimson Tide rank 23rd in the land in passing offense but 122nd in rushing. Those struggles did not change in Norman with Oklahoma having an 81% Run Stuff Rate for the game, and the Tide also benefited from scoring on a Pick-6.
Now, the frontline stats show that Alabama has a fine defense of its own, ranking 13th in total defense, 27th in rushing defense and 10th in passing defense. However, the metrics are not as flattering against the run, where the Tide are middle-of-the-pack in Line Yards, Stuff Rate and defending inside zone rushing concepts. Thus, we expect the Indiana running tandem of Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black to be as successful as they have been all year.
Remember also that Indiana has been off since December 6th, giving them a head start on preparing for this matchup.
And one thing we have not touched on is there is heavy rain in the forecast for Pasadena for gameday, which would theoretically hurt the pass-heavy Alabama offense more. But, rain or shine, we are betting on Indiana to cover this number in any event.
THE PICK
Indiana -7 -114 at Heritage
Mississippi Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Thursday, January 1st – 8:00pm ET
We have a regular-season rematch in the final College Football Playoff quarterfinal on New Year's night. And we are betting on Georgia to win by a wider margin than in that first meeting against Mississippi in the Sugar Bowl.
Improved Georgia Defense Late in Year
Georgia comes in ranked third in the country at 12-1 and they also handed Mississippi their only loss of the season 43-35 at home in Athens. And frankly we see the Bulldogs having just as easy a time offensively in this rematch, with quarterback Gunner Stockton again showing that he can be much more than a “game manager” when he needs to be.
Yes, Georgia has run the ball on 59% of their snaps this season with a Rush Success Rate of just over 58% with running back Nate Frazier leading the way. However, Stockton still finished the season with over 3,000 total yards (2,691 passing, 442 rushing) and 31 touchdowns (23 passing, 8 rushing). Furthermore, in three huge meetings against Alabama, Texas and this Ole Miss team, he threw 11 touchdown passes combined while adding two more on the ground.
We simply see this as a tough matchup for the often-underwhelming Mississippi defense.
Speaking of defense, that unit has progressed nicely for Georgia as the season has gone on. Ole Miss scored touchdowns on its first five possessions in the first meeting before being shut down the rest of the way, and the defensive improvement did not stop there. The Bulldogs have gone on to hold their last four opponents to 10 points or less, a slate that included Texas, Georgia Tech and ultimately Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
Last Ole Miss Win Did Not Prove Much
Mississippi did not appear to miss a beat in its first game of the post Lane Kiffin era in the first round, but a 41-10 win against a Group of 5 Champion in Tulane does not really prove much. As mentioned, the Rebels should face more resistance here against a Georgia defense that has transformed itself since the second half of the first meeting. And we certainly do not expect a repeat of the defensive effort against the Green Wave.
Facing a non-threatening opponent like Tulane disguised the fact that Ole Miss ranks outside the Top 100 in Defensive Line Yards and Rush Explosives Allowed. The Dawgs had no issue in the first meeting, especially on the ground with a 63% Success Rate and three Rush Explosives.
When you also factor in that, like all the top four seeds, Georgia has the added advantage of extra preparation time and we are banking on the Bulldogs to win comfortably in this spot.
THE PICK
Geordia -6 -113 at Bet105
Remember that we already have more bowl plays posted besides these and we will almost certainly add more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
We are still 34-27 across All Sports with our write-ups and 20-13 in College Football despite our losing play on Tuesday. We now have plays in the Alabama vs. Indiana and Mississippi vs. Georgia College Football Playoff matchups Thursday.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Thursday, January 1st – 4:00pm ET
We expect the #1 team in the country to flex its muscles in one of the College Football Playoff quarterfinals on New Year's Day. Thus, we are giving the points with Indiana when they take on Alabama in the Rose Bowl.
Hoosiers Great on Both Sides of Ball
The Hoosiers are certainly worthy of their top ranking as they have a perfect 13-0 record after beating defending champion and previously unbeaten Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. They also boast the Heisman Trophy winner in quarterback Fernando Mendoza, although he was not the entire offense.
Yes, Mendoza was fantastic while completing 71.5% of his passes while averaging a hefty 9.0 yards per attempt, leading to a total of 2,980 passing yards with 33 touchdown passes vs. just six interceptions. But the Hoosiers also ranked 11th in the country in rushing, and metrically they led the nation in Rushing Success Rate. Add that rushing success to a Heisman quarterback and Indiana ranks seventh nationally in yards per play of any kind at 7.1!
Moreover, the Hoosiers are not all about offense like in past years, as they finished fourth in the country in total defense, third in rushing defense and 18th in passing defense. And it gets even better metrically where the Indiana defense leads the country in Havoc, a formula that combines sacks, turnovers and tackles-for-loss.
Tide with One-Dimensional Passing Offense
Alabama deserves credit for going into Norman and beating Oklahoma in the first round, but they still had a one-dimensional passing offense like they had all season. The Crimson Tide rank 23rd in the land in passing offense but 122nd in rushing. Those struggles did not change in Norman with Oklahoma having an 81% Run Stuff Rate for the game, and the Tide also benefited from scoring on a Pick-6.
Now, the frontline stats show that Alabama has a fine defense of its own, ranking 13th in total defense, 27th in rushing defense and 10th in passing defense. However, the metrics are not as flattering against the run, where the Tide are middle-of-the-pack in Line Yards, Stuff Rate and defending inside zone rushing concepts. Thus, we expect the Indiana running tandem of Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black to be as successful as they have been all year.
Remember also that Indiana has been off since December 6th, giving them a head start on preparing for this matchup.
And one thing we have not touched on is there is heavy rain in the forecast for Pasadena for gameday, which would theoretically hurt the pass-heavy Alabama offense more. But, rain or shine, we are betting on Indiana to cover this number in any event.
THE PICK
Indiana -7 -114 at Heritage
Mississippi Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Thursday, January 1st – 8:00pm ET
We have a regular-season rematch in the final College Football Playoff quarterfinal on New Year's night. And we are betting on Georgia to win by a wider margin than in that first meeting against Mississippi in the Sugar Bowl.
Improved Georgia Defense Late in Year
Georgia comes in ranked third in the country at 12-1 and they also handed Mississippi their only loss of the season 43-35 at home in Athens. And frankly we see the Bulldogs having just as easy a time offensively in this rematch, with quarterback Gunner Stockton again showing that he can be much more than a “game manager” when he needs to be.
Yes, Georgia has run the ball on 59% of their snaps this season with a Rush Success Rate of just over 58% with running back Nate Frazier leading the way. However, Stockton still finished the season with over 3,000 total yards (2,691 passing, 442 rushing) and 31 touchdowns (23 passing, 8 rushing). Furthermore, in three huge meetings against Alabama, Texas and this Ole Miss team, he threw 11 touchdown passes combined while adding two more on the ground.
We simply see this as a tough matchup for the often-underwhelming Mississippi defense.
Speaking of defense, that unit has progressed nicely for Georgia as the season has gone on. Ole Miss scored touchdowns on its first five possessions in the first meeting before being shut down the rest of the way, and the defensive improvement did not stop there. The Bulldogs have gone on to hold their last four opponents to 10 points or less, a slate that included Texas, Georgia Tech and ultimately Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
Last Ole Miss Win Did Not Prove Much
Mississippi did not appear to miss a beat in its first game of the post Lane Kiffin era in the first round, but a 41-10 win against a Group of 5 Champion in Tulane does not really prove much. As mentioned, the Rebels should face more resistance here against a Georgia defense that has transformed itself since the second half of the first meeting. And we certainly do not expect a repeat of the defensive effort against the Green Wave.
Facing a non-threatening opponent like Tulane disguised the fact that Ole Miss ranks outside the Top 100 in Defensive Line Yards and Rush Explosives Allowed. The Dawgs had no issue in the first meeting, especially on the ground with a 63% Success Rate and three Rush Explosives.
When you also factor in that, like all the top four seeds, Georgia has the added advantage of extra preparation time and we are banking on the Bulldogs to win comfortably in this spot.
THE PICK
Geordia -6 -113 at Bet105
Remember that we already have more bowl plays posted besides these and we will almost certainly add more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
