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NCAA Basketball Pick for Tuesday: Total Looks Light in Lubbock
We are on a 14-3 All-Sports run with our write-ups after going 2-1 in College Football on Saturday. We now shift gears with our first NCAA Basketball write-up of the new season for Tuesday. Note that we have just one selection today and tomorrow may be light also, but we plan to return to our customary three NCAAB plays per day two days per week starting next week.
Lindenwood Lions vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Tuesday, November 4th – 8:00pm ET
We think we have found a deflated total on the Tuesday card, as we expect Texas Tech to do enough of the heavy lifting to key an Over hosting Lindenwood at United Supermarkets Arena in the season opener.
Tech Could Score 100 if They Want To
Texas Tech opens this season ranked 10th in the AP Poll and 13th overall on Kenpom. Most importantly regarding our selection for this game, Kenpom opens them 12th on offensive efficiency while taking on a Lindenwood team ranked 262nd in defensive efficiency. This has us believing that the Red Raiders could score 100 points in this game if they really wanted to, although we doubt that will happen as the 34-point favorites figure to call off the dogs early.
Still, a final total of 90 points is certainly feasible, not unlike last season under current coach Grant McCasland when they opened the season with four lightweights, scoring at least 94 points in three of those games and 86 in the other.
The team now returns their top two scorers from the squad that had a late lead over eventual national champion Florida in the Elite Eight. They are JT Toppin (18.2 points, 9.4 rebounds per game last season) and Christian Anderson, who came off the bench as the sixth man but played starters’ minutes.
Moreover, the projected starting lineup filled some departures with two transfer players that averaged double digit points a year ago in Donovan Atwell (UNC Greensboro) and LeJuan Watts (Washington State). As mentioned, we do not expect these Tech stars to face much resistance vs. a passive defense tonight.
Lions May Not Need Much to Cash the Over
If we are correct about Texas Tech scoring around 90 points in this spot, it would leave Lindenwood needing to score only in the upper 50s to push this game Over the total. We think that is certainly doable, especially with the prospects of late garbage time with the Red Raiders expected to have a big lead.
The Lions also return their top two scorers in Anias Futrell (12.8 points, 6.0 rebounds) and Jadis Jones (12.5 points, 5.8 rebounds), and they added a good three-point shooter in Miami-Ohio transfer Mekhi Cooper, who shot 35.9% beyond the arc over the last two years for the Redhawks. That trio could be all that is needed to produce the modest point-total needed to cash this Over ticket.
Now, we obviously have no interest in backing Texas Tech as a 34-point favorite. But we do feel the Raiders should be able to score at will, and we think Lindenwood will score enough here to bet on the Over on Tuesday.
THE PICK
Over 145 -109 at Bet105
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
We are on a 14-3 All-Sports run with our write-ups after going 2-1 in College Football on Saturday. We now shift gears with our first NCAA Basketball write-up of the new season for Tuesday. Note that we have just one selection today and tomorrow may be light also, but we plan to return to our customary three NCAAB plays per day two days per week starting next week.
Lindenwood Lions vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Tuesday, November 4th – 8:00pm ET
We think we have found a deflated total on the Tuesday card, as we expect Texas Tech to do enough of the heavy lifting to key an Over hosting Lindenwood at United Supermarkets Arena in the season opener.
Tech Could Score 100 if They Want To
Texas Tech opens this season ranked 10th in the AP Poll and 13th overall on Kenpom. Most importantly regarding our selection for this game, Kenpom opens them 12th on offensive efficiency while taking on a Lindenwood team ranked 262nd in defensive efficiency. This has us believing that the Red Raiders could score 100 points in this game if they really wanted to, although we doubt that will happen as the 34-point favorites figure to call off the dogs early.
Still, a final total of 90 points is certainly feasible, not unlike last season under current coach Grant McCasland when they opened the season with four lightweights, scoring at least 94 points in three of those games and 86 in the other.
The team now returns their top two scorers from the squad that had a late lead over eventual national champion Florida in the Elite Eight. They are JT Toppin (18.2 points, 9.4 rebounds per game last season) and Christian Anderson, who came off the bench as the sixth man but played starters’ minutes.
Moreover, the projected starting lineup filled some departures with two transfer players that averaged double digit points a year ago in Donovan Atwell (UNC Greensboro) and LeJuan Watts (Washington State). As mentioned, we do not expect these Tech stars to face much resistance vs. a passive defense tonight.
Lions May Not Need Much to Cash the Over
If we are correct about Texas Tech scoring around 90 points in this spot, it would leave Lindenwood needing to score only in the upper 50s to push this game Over the total. We think that is certainly doable, especially with the prospects of late garbage time with the Red Raiders expected to have a big lead.
The Lions also return their top two scorers in Anias Futrell (12.8 points, 6.0 rebounds) and Jadis Jones (12.5 points, 5.8 rebounds), and they added a good three-point shooter in Miami-Ohio transfer Mekhi Cooper, who shot 35.9% beyond the arc over the last two years for the Redhawks. That trio could be all that is needed to produce the modest point-total needed to cash this Over ticket.
Now, we obviously have no interest in backing Texas Tech as a 34-point favorite. But we do feel the Raiders should be able to score at will, and we think Lindenwood will score enough here to bet on the Over on Tuesday.
THE PICK
Over 145 -109 at Bet105
There is always a chance that we could have more plays later, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAB Picks thread for additions.
I got 145.5 so not too bad
