Reds -111

[JDS]

Nick Martinez starting pitcher for the Reds has struggled this season, but I feel like this is a good spot to right the ship. His career FIP (fielding independent pitching) 4.08 & low walk rate 3.2/9 suggests he’s due for positive regression. Also his fly ball tendency 33.7% for Loan Depot Park is ideal known to be a pitchers park. Jose Trevino is an elite pitcher framing catcher for extra outs throughout the game.

Reds have a top 10 bullpen currently with a solid 3.33 ERA compared to the Marlins 4.32 & they have blown 3 of 6 saves in the later innings. If Martinez can keep this game close, relievers like Alex Díaz can shut the door on the Marlins. The Reds hold a clear edge offensively (5.3 runs/game) they scored 22 runs a few nights ago against Baltimore on the road.

Take the Reds & good luck if you tail or fade

 

[Wagerallsports]

Hope it hits best of luck

 

[JDS]

Hope it hits best of luck

Hope so almost every game I bet on luck is truly involved which we call variation.

 

[jjgold]

Tailed small

 

[BMR Genie]

Let's go!!!!!!!

 

[JDS]

Tailed small

Good luck

 

[wwurmeier]

Hope so almost every game I bet on luck is truly involved which we call variation.

Good variance to you - stay lucky my friend!!!

 

[JDS]

Good variance to you - stay lucky my friend!!!

🫡

 

[KVB]

Nick Martinez starting pitcher for the Reds has struggled this season, but I feel like this is a good spot to right the ship. His career FIP (fielding independent pitching) 4.08 & low walk rate 3.2/9 suggests he’s due for positive regression. Also his fly ball tendency 33.7% for Loan Depot Park is ideal known to be a pitchers park. Jose Trevino is an elite pitcher framing catcher for extra outs throughout the game.

Reds have a top 10 bullpen currently with a solid 3.33 ERA compared to the Marlins 4.32 & they have blown 3 of 6 saves in the later innings. If Martinez can keep this game close, relievers like Alex Díaz can shut the door on the Marlins. The Reds hold a clear edge offensively (5.3 runs/game) they scored 22 runs a few nights ago against Baltimore on the road.

Take the Reds & good luck if you tail or fade

Good Luck here Jerky.

I'm watching the trading in this game and might be trading it LIVE.

My current thoughts are that if Mia can take an early lead and flip the market, I'll take Cincy to come back. Not a good number for a pre game Mia position, but might pick it up anyway, for the equity gained if they take the early lead.

The line spiked overnight but I did not move on the MIA +115 and +110s, but the market came back, as I thought it might. Miami with a slight contrarian lean in my metrics and, again, I'm watching the trading in this game.

 

[BobbyFK]

I like to see the write up here JD! Good luck on the play bud!

 

[JDS]

I like to see the write up here JD! Good luck on the play bud!

Been focusing on pitching more than hitting right now with MLB.

 

[JDS]

One little seasonal indicator for Miami Marlins is they have not won three in a row all season. This would be their first time with an official winning streak.

 

[Tanko]

GL JDS....

 

[BobbyFK]

Been focusing on pitching more than hitting right now with MLB.

Smart plan

 

[KVB]

My current thoughts are that if Mia can take an early lead and flip the market, I'll take Cincy to come back. Not a good number for a pre game Mia position, but might pick it up anyway, for the equity gained if they take the early lead.

The line spiked overnight but I did not move on the MIA +115 and +110s, but the market came back, as I thought it might. Miami with a slight contrarian lean in my metrics and, again, I'm watching the trading in this game.

Tough to get this line on MIA to +105, for good reasons.

I might strike there if I can.

Market is taking action on Cinci but little movement. This is evidence the market is taking a position and furthers my case to open a position on MIA, possibly to close on the Cinci comeback.

Will be heading to the gym, but will watch the line from there at few markets.

 

[JDS]

Tough to get this line on MIA to +105, for good reasons.

I might strike there if I can.

Market is taking action on Cinci but little movement. This is evidence the market is taking a position and furthers my case to open a position on MIA, possibly to close on the Cinci comeback.

Will be heading to the gym, but will watch the line from there at few markets.

Cool get your workout in & avoid injury, we will be waiting on what your position will be throughout this game.

 

[KingKolzig]

Trailering at a horrid -122

I like that they have been in the city/park a few days. Miami also has 3 guys without many at bats this yr.......sanchez, ramirez, norby....should go like 2-12 combined

 

[JDS]

Trailering at a horrid -122

I like that they have been in the city/park a few days. Miami also has 3 guys without many at bats this yr.......sanchez, ramirez, norby....should go like 2-12 combined

Yeah I see a 5-2 type game, didn’t get greedy and take the RL. Just one unit at a time for me as I try to gain back the confidence I once had as a gambler.

 

[KingKolzig]

Lot of high scoring games in that park this yr......yes i had runline +145 cause of that but just want an early winner

 

[JDS]

Lot of high scoring games in that park this yr......yes i had runline +145 cause of that but just want an early winner

Yeah a lot bad pitching going on early in the season at that park, mainly by the Marlins themselves. I think tonight we may get an under though.