Squarest Season For NFL?

[krit]

Pretty much bet every favorite and you are going to win.

So far faves are 9-3 this week if you consider Jags a fave.

Bad season for sharp bettors.

 

[Jrgum3]

Taking underdogs sure hasn't worked for me. I'm 0-2 today and it wasn't even close. It's just been a weird year where the chalk has held for the most part and making "sharp" bets hasn't panned out.

 

[jjgold]

Yep

 

[krit]

Faves were 12-3 ATS if you count Minny as a favorite. They closed as a fave at most books.

And these scores aren’t even close. Here are some of the win margins

KC wins by 19
Baltimore wins by 29
Chargers win by 33
Bills win by 26
Bucs win by 34
Miami wins by 17
Eagles win by 34

 

[jjgold]

It’s rare when a dog wins

 

[KVB]

It's really been more up and down. Assuming a bettor risked the same unit all season on favorites against the spread...

Favorite spread bettors were down over -10 units after the first quarter of the season. By Nov 2nd they were up +5 units. A week later, down -5 units, that's a 10 unit swing in the first week of November.

Those same bettors were down more than -5 units two and half weeks ago and were still negative units just 2 weeks ago.

Then it soared and they are up +7 or +8 units now.

 

[BigJay]

Yep

Excellent insight as usual

 

[KVB]

So I just gave a quick rundown of what the favorite spread went through this season but I don't necessarily agree with the sharp square assessment.

Sharp bettors smake +EV plays and +EV plays are not negative this year. I suppose it's a bit of a more nuanced discussion though as it may not be true for all categories of games.

Let me see what kind of data I can pull to show what I mean.

 

[krit]

It's really been more up and down. Assuming a bettor risked the same unit all season on favorites against the spread...

Favorite spread bettors were down over -10 units after the first quarter of the season. By Nov 2nd they were up +5 units. A week later, down -5 units, that's a 10 unit swing in the first week of November.

Those same bettors were down more than -5 units two and half weeks ago and were still negative units just 2 weeks ago.

Then it soared and they are up +7 or +8 units now.

Just curious, do you have ATS the last three to four weeks?

So I just gave a quick rundown of what the favorite spread went through this season but I don't necessarily agree with the sharp square assessment.

Sharp bettors smake +EV plays and +EV plays are not negative this year. I suppose it's a bit of a more nuanced discussion though as it may not be true for all categories of games.

Let me see what kind of data I can pull to show what I mean.

For the most part, especially as of late, NFL has been really square. Regardless of the square vs sharp argument, NFL has been a lot of faves covering the past month or so.

 

[krit]

Last week faves were 9-6-1.

Two weeks ago 9-7.

So maybe not as bad as I thought, but still a pretty decent trend going on for about a month.

 

[djefferis]

Again - it’s a trend.

The whole sharp/square thing is a myth.

If it were as simple as dogs were the “sharp” side - everyone would plow money into dogs and the line would adjust. It’s a tad more complex than that.

The “squares” are at all time levels of chalk - and still covering. It’s good business for a book to let the customer win every now and then. People are suckers and get over confident then chase. It’s week 17 - CBB and playoffs likely see books stage a massive rally.

Like I said in JJs thread - true sharps don’t bet against trends - they bet into them or stay away until things show signs of correction back to the norm.

NFL is a single market. CFB showed similar results until the meaningless bowls - then it reversed. The first round BCS games though continued the trend. Curious to see how it plays out with the 2nd round - everyone expects Texas, PSU and Norte Dame to roll with only Ohio State predicted to be close. Do we see an upset or 2 ? Might just do a 2-3 team RR money line parlay on the three dogs myself.

 

[KVB]

Again - it’s a trend.

The whole sharp/square thing is a myth.

If it were as simple as dogs were the “sharp” side - everyone would plow money into dogs and the line would adjust. It’s a tad more complex than that.

The “squares” are at all time levels of chalk - and still covering. It’s good business for a book to let the customer win every now and then. People are suckers and get over confident then chase. It’s week 17 - CBB and playoffs likely see books stage a massive rally.

Like I said in JJs thread - true sharps don’t bet against trends - they bet into them or stay away until things show signs of correction back to the norm.

NFL is a single market. CFB showed similar results until the meaningless bowls - then it reversed. The first round BCS games though continued the trend. Curious to see how it plays out with the 2nd round - everyone expects Texas, PSU and Norte Dame to roll with only Ohio State predicted to be close. Do we see an upset or 2 ? Might just do a 2-3 team RR money line parlay on the three dogs myself.

Not a good post.

Why is it so difficult for people to understand what sharp bettors are doing? For fuk sake, I made a video explaining it.

Sharp bettors make +EV plays.

That's it, there's nothing more to it.

That nonsense about trends is not only wrong, in some cases it's actually backwards because of the effect some trends have on the market.

 

[JDS]

Excellent insight as usual

Quantity over quality, and BMR doesn't give a shit oh well.

 

[krit]

I guess I should have just said Faves are doing really well in NFL. I don't care about the square vs sharp angle, but faves have been covering at an insane rate the last couple weeks.