Stormtrooper8 NFL ATS Picks 2024

[lapenti]

I don't 'model' NFL but a couple of guys I talk to who are winning bettors, tell me their model only becomes useful after week 4-5 of the NFL season. It's mostly paper betting for them early on, and possibly tweaking minor things

 

[lapenti]

Early betting statistics through Week 2.....OUCH


Records for each category

Favorites: 6-10-2 (38.9%)
Home Fav: 5-7-2 (42.9%)
Road Fav: 1-3 (25.0%)

Underdogs: 6-8 (42.9%)
Home Dog: 1-2 (33.3%)
Road Dog: 5-6 (45.5%)

Divisional games: 1-3 (25.0%)

On the bright side, you are +2-0 in the Chiefs games in 2024!

 

[stormtrooper8]

I don't 'model' NFL but a couple of guys I talk to who are winning bettors, tell me their model only becomes useful after week 4-5 of the NFL season. It's mostly paper betting for them early on, and possibly tweaking minor things

Yep that’s accurate

I just pick all the games to see how I can do

It feels extra random this year. No truly great team, only a couple awful teams

 

[stormtrooper8]

Picks will be early this week, using BetOnline

Very busy week ahead

 

[jjgold]

It’s been very difficult reading these games

 

[Tanko]

Picks will be early this week, using BetOnline

Very busy week ahead

Thanks ST.

Hard to read WTH is happening in the NFL after two weeks.
Its a damn mess IMO. Nothing is happening as expected. I mean almost NOTHING.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall ATS record: 12-18-2
Week 1: 8-7-1
Week 2: 4-11-1


Week 3

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall ATS record: 12-18-2
Week 1: 8-7-1
Week 2: 4-11-1


Week 3

View attachment 42676

Oof another tough week

7-9

 

[stormtrooper8]

Early betting statistics through Week 3....yikes


Records for each category

Favorites: 10-15-2 (40.7%)
Home Fav: 7-11-2 (40.0%)
Road Fav: 3-4 (42.7%)

Underdogs: 9-12 (42.9%)
Home Dog: 2-3 (40.0%)
Road Dog: 7-9 (43.8%)

Divisional games: 3-5 (37.5%)

 

[Tanko]

Oof another tough week

7-9

View attachment 43285

I'm not saying marriage has effected your NFL picking but, there kind of is a correlation there.
You might mention that to the Mrs.....

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall ATS record: 19-27-2
Week 1: 8-7-1
Week 2: 4-11-1
Week 3: 7-9

Week 4.....

 

[stormtrooper8]

Record nuggets for each game:


DAL vs NYG:
DAL vs NYG:
DAL vs NYG:
DAL vs NYG:
DAL vs NYG:

 

[stormtrooper8]

Oops ^^ mistake

 

[stormtrooper8]

Record nuggets for Week 4 games. I won't do this every week, but still:


DAL vs. NYG:

• 3-3 in games involving these teams (1-2 in DAL games, 2-1 in NYG games)
• 1-2 playing DAL
• 2-1 fading NYG

PIT vs. IND:

• 3-3 in games involving these teams (1-2 in PIT games, 2-1 in IND games)
• 0-2 fading PIT
• 2-1 playing IND

MIN vs. GB:

• 3-3 in games involving these teams (1-2 in MIN games, 2-1 in GB games)
• 1-0 playing MIN
• 1-1 fading GB

JAX vs. HOU:

• 2-3-1 in games involving these teams (1-2 in JAX games, 1-1-1 in HOU games)
• 1-1 fading JAX
• 0-1-1 playing HOU

NO vs. ATL:

• 4-2 in games involving these teams (1-2 in NO games, 3-0 in ATL games)
• 1-2 fading NO
• 1-0 playing ATL

LAR vs. CHI:

• 2-3-1 in games involving these teams (1-2 in LAR games, 1-1-1 in CHI games)
• 1-2 playing LAR
• 1-1-1 fading CHI

PHI vs. TB:

• 5-1 in games involving these teams (3-0 in PHI games, 2-1 in TB games)
• 1-0 fading PHI
• 2-1 playing TB

CIN vs. CAR:

• 1-5 in games involving these teams (1-2 in CIN games, 0-3 in CAR games)
• 1-2 playing CIN
• 0-1 fading CAR

DEN vs. NYJ:

• 1-4-1 in games involving these teams (0-2-1 in DEN games, 1-2 in NYJ games)
• 0-1 playing DEN
• 1-2 fading NYJ

WAS vs. AZ:

• 3-3 in games involving these teams (2-1 in WAS games, 1-2 in AZ games)
• 1-1 fading WAS
• 0-0 playing AZ

NE vs. SF:

• 2-4 in games involving these teams (0-3 in NE games, 2-1 in SF games)
• 0-2 fading NE
• 1-1 playing SF

CLE vs. LV:

• 1-5 in games involving these teams (1-2 in CLE games, 0-3 in LV games)
• 0-1 playing CLE
• 0-1 fading LV

KC vs. LAC:

• 3-3 in games involving these teams (3-0 in KC games, 0-3 in LAC games)
• 1-0 fading KC
• 0-1 playing LAC

BUF vs. BAL:

• 2-4 in games involving these teams (1-2 in BUF games, 1-2 in BAL games)
• 1-1 playing BUF
• 1-1 fading BAL

TEN vs. MIA:

• 1-5 in games involving these teams (1-2 in TEN games, 0-3 in MIA games)
• 1-0 fading TEN
• 0-3 playing MIA

SEA vs. DET:

• 2-3-1 in games involving these teams (0-2-1 in SEA games, 2-1 in DET games)
• 0-1 fading SEA
• 1-0 playing DET

 

[Tanko]

Overall ATS record: 19-27-2
Week 1: 8-7-1
Week 2: 4-11-1
Week 3: 7-9

Week 4.....

View attachment 43288

Alright....
Much better week this week. Nice recovery Stormy.

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall ATS record: 19-27-2
Week 1: 8-7-1
Week 2: 4-11-1
Week 3: 7-9

Week 4.....

View attachment 43288

9-7 Week 4. Not great, but a step in the right direction

 

[BMR Genie]

9-7 Week 4. Not great, but a step in the right direction

View attachment 43573

The Bengals finally made it!

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall ATS record: 28-34-2
Week 1: 8-7-1
Week 2: 4-11-1
Week 3: 7-9
Week 4: 9-7


Week 5.....

 

[jjgold]

Slow start, but I think you’re gonna improve moving forward

 

[stormtrooper8]

Overall ATS record: 28-34-2
Week 1: 8-7-1
Week 2: 4-11-1
Week 3: 7-9
Week 4: 9-7


Week 5.....

View attachment 43662

Felt like I was on the wrong side of a lot of close games.....tough breaks

5-8-1