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Las Vegas sports bettor locks in profit of up to $4.9M on Super Bowl

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KVB

KVB

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Actually, I have contracts on both NE and Seattle, lol. Bought NE after they beat houston and bought seattle right before the NFC championship game. I only bought one other team, Houston, before the NE game with the intent of selling it back mid game when they were ahead. That actually worked except there wasn't much to sell back for.

Still holding both sides, might sell it all. No time now, will update here those specifics, trading and St. John's is making their move.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
18,408
Actually, I have contracts on both NE and Seattle,

So I ended up with 1,960 Seattle contracts at .39 and 1,330 NE contracts at at .29 cents.

Both LA and Seattle were favored over NE so buy the end of the NFC championship game the SEA contracts went to .68 cents but NE only went to .33 cents.

So I 'm in $1150:

If Seattle wins I get back $1960, about $810 profit.
If NE wins I get back $1330, about $180 profit.
Sell ALL pregame, get back $1772, about $621 profit.

What would you do?

I put an order to sell half of the SEA and all of the NE for a penny better than the market, seeking lower commission when getting out. That line has been sharp and I was on top of millions of orders and millions became on top of me. Nothing budged. Eventually Seattle budged and I sold half the position.

At first I was bummed, because I liked Sea, but then I realized the whole fukkin world likes Sea.

I have pulled my NE sell orders and now hold 980 SEA and 1330 NE at the prices in the first sentence of this post.

I am not done analyizing the game or the markets or the weekend, or Sunday, you know how I do it. When I do I will revisit these contracts and go to market if need be. For now, the plan is to let each team swell in the SuperBowl and likely sell out at higher prices.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
18,408
You should wait until they release the Crop Report @KVB

View attachment 85299
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Exactly.

Eggs fukkin Zactly.

I will have Sunday report and market outlook that will help guide my decision but I have been doing this a long time and I am pretty confident decisions won't be made until right about or after kickoff.

That's what's great about the exchanges, don't have the vig of the LIVE sportsbook, usually. Sometimes going to market can cost. But often it's then worth it.
 

BigJay

BigJay

Joined
Oct 28, 2021
Messages
25,918
So I ended up with 1,960 Seattle contracts at .39 and 1,330 NE contracts at at .29 cents.

Both LA and Seattle were favored over NE so buy the end of the NFC championship game the SEA contracts went to .68 cents but NE only went to .33 cents.

So I 'm in $1150:

If Seattle wins I get back $1960, about $810 profit.
If NE wins I get back $1330, about $180 profit.
Sell ALL pregame, get back $1772, about $621 profit.

What would you do?

I put an order to sell half of the SEA and all of the NE for a penny better than the market, seeking lower commission when getting out. That line has been sharp and I was on top of millions of orders and millions became on top of me. Nothing budged. Eventually Seattle budged and I sold half the position.

At first I was bummed, because I liked Sea, but then I realized the whole fukkin world likes Sea.

I have pulled my NE sell orders and now hold 980 SEA and 1330 NE at the prices in the first sentence of this post.

I am not done analyizing the game or the markets or the weekend, or Sunday, you know how I do it. When I do I will revisit these contracts and go to market if need be. For now, the plan is to let each team swell in the SuperBowl and likely sell out at higher prices.
You can only gain $189 profit more.

I’d sell all to guarantee a $621 profit:

You’re much better at the above than me and most here but there’s something about just being able to watch the game for fun if you want knowing you already pocketed $621.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
18,408
You can only gain $189 profit more.

I’d sell all to guarantee a $621 profit:

You’re much better at the above than me and most here but there’s something about just being able to watch the game for fun if you want knowing you already pocketed $621.

Yeah, like I said I put orders in to sell right away, keeping back a little Seattle. Only that half of Seattle sold.

So I plan to take that profit you're talking about, but I will during the game, or maybe right before. During the game I may get a better number on that NE.
 

pipe

pipe

Joined
Aug 3, 2022
Messages
11,246
Yeah, like I said I put orders in to sell right away, keeping back a little Seattle. Only that half of Seattle sold.

So I plan to take that profit you're talking about, but I will during the game, or maybe right before. During the game I may get a better number on that NE.
1000007089.jpg
 
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DiggityDaggityDo

DiggityDaggityDo

Joined
Oct 30, 2021
Messages
42,378
Exactly.

Eggs fukkin Zactly.

I will have Sunday report and market outlook that will help guide my decision but I have been doing this a long time and I am pretty confident decisions won't be made until right about or after kickoff.

That's what's great about the exchanges, don't have the vig of the LIVE sportsbook, usually. Sometimes going to market can cost. But often it's then worth it.
1770437257529.jpeg
 

quantumleap

quantumleap

Joined
Apr 10, 2022
Messages
4,928
Exactly.

Eggs fukkin Zactly.

I will have Sunday report and market outlook that will help guide my decision but I have been doing this a long time and I am pretty confident decisions won't be made until right about or after kickoff.

That's what's great about the exchanges, don't have the vig of the LIVE sportsbook, usually. Sometimes going to market can cost. But often it's then worth it.

A woman was very distraught over the fact that she had not had a date or any sex for over 5 years.

She was afraid she might have something wrong with her, so she decided to seek the medical expertise of the well known Chinese sex therapist, Dr. Chang.

Upon entering the examination room, Dr. Chang said, "OK, take off all your crose."

The woman did as she was told.

"Now, get down and craw reery, reery fass to odderside of room."

Again, the woman did as she was instructed. Dr. Chang then said, "OK, now craw reery, reery fass back to me."

As she did, Dr. Chang shook his head slowly. "Your probrem velly bad. You haf Ed Zachary Disease. Worse case I ever see. Dat why you not haf sex or dates."

The woman asked anxiously, "Oh my God, Dr. Chang, what is Ed Zachary Disease?"

Dr. Chang sighed deeply and replied, "Ed Zachary Disease is when your face look ed zachary like your ass.
 

sunshine11

sunshine11

Joined
Jan 3, 2022
Messages
9,365
A woman was very distraught over the fact that she had not had a date or any sex for over 5 years.

She was afraid she might have something wrong with her, so she decided to seek the medical expertise of the well known Chinese sex therapist, Dr. Chang.

Upon entering the examination room, Dr. Chang said, "OK, take off all your crose."

The woman did as she was told.

"Now, get down and craw reery, reery fass to odderside of room."

Again, the woman did as she was instructed. Dr. Chang then said, "OK, now craw reery, reery fass back to me."

As she did, Dr. Chang shook his head slowly. "Your probrem velly bad. You haf Ed Zachary Disease. Worse case I ever see. Dat why you not haf sex or dates."

The woman asked anxiously, "Oh my God, Dr. Chang, what is Ed Zachary Disease?"

Dr. Chang sighed deeply and replied, "Ed Zachary Disease is when your face look ed zachary like your ass.
Haha 😂
 

drunkenhorseplayer

drunkenhorseplayer

Joined
Mar 17, 2025
Messages
600
So I ended up with 1,960 Seattle contracts at .39 and 1,330 NE contracts at at .29 cents.

Both LA and Seattle were favored over NE so buy the end of the NFC championship game the SEA contracts went to .68 cents but NE only went to .33 cents.

So I 'm in $1150:

If Seattle wins I get back $1960, about $810 profit.
If NE wins I get back $1330, about $180 profit.
Sell ALL pregame, get back $1772, about $621 profit.

What would you do?

I put an order to sell half of the SEA and all of the NE for a penny better than the market, seeking lower commission when getting out. That line has been sharp and I was on top of millions of orders and millions became on top of me. Nothing budged. Eventually Seattle budged and I sold half the position.

At first I was bummed, because I liked Sea, but then I realized the whole fukkin world likes Sea.

I have pulled my NE sell orders and now hold 980 SEA and 1330 NE at the prices in the first sentence of this post.

I am not done analyizing the game or the markets or the weekend, or Sunday, you know how I do it. When I do I will revisit these contracts and go to market if need be. For now, the plan is to let each team swell in the SuperBowl and likely sell out at higher prices.
The math says to hold, not hedge.
 
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