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All In Uconn Tonight Over St Johns

Pimike

Pimike

Joined
Oct 30, 2021
Messages
12,126
This is a real play. It’s not serious money, but it’s enough to get me through the weekend if I win gambling is all about surviving until the next few days.
Get it!!!
 

pete0

pete0

Joined
Jan 24, 2023
Messages
2,381

ran a 10k sims.

Winner:​

Win Probability: 70.8%espn+1


Simulation Breakdown​

Ran 10,000 Monte Carlo sims factoring in:

  • Current records, rankings, & efficiency metricskenpom+2
  • Win streak momentum (UConn: 18 games, St. John's: 8 games)cbssports+1
  • UConn's elite defense (#5 nationally, 63.8 PPG allowed)uconnhuskies+1
  • St. John's home court at MSG (+3.5 pts)reddit+1
  • UConn's perfect road record (7-0)[cbssports]
  • St. John's 2nd-half dominance (+10.5 pts in 2H during streak)[redstormsports]
  • No major injuries for either teamteamrankings+1

Results​

Moneyline:

  • UConn: 70.79% (7,079/10,000 wins)
  • St. John's: 29.21% (2,921/10,000 wins)
Projected Score:

  • UConn: 72.3
  • St. John's: 66.7
  • UConn by 5.8 pts (avg)
Game Flow:

  • Close game (<5 pts): 32.4%
  • UConn blowout: 34.3%
  • St. John's upset: 29.2%

The Edge​

UConn's suffocating defense (#5 KenPom, 91.7 efficiency) is the X-factor against St. John's offense-heavy approach (84.6 PPG). The Huskies' 18-game win streak & road dominance (7-0) outweighs St. John's home court advantage. Market moved from -1.5 to -2.5, sharp money backing UConn.sports.yahoo+4

ML Bet: UConn -154 ✅
 
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