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You only handicap baseball based off pitchers

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djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
2,950
Correct to start the season on both items:

Pitching way ahead of hitting early - some guys will get lucky - but overall pitching holds the advantage.

As well - first 5 is the way to go. Starters get pulled after 90-100 pitches - bullpens aren’t in mid season form and everyone has bad outings to start - not like your looking at full games with a starter / set up guy and reliever - it’s gonna be 4+ pitchers every game and way too tough to handicap bullpens.

Stick to this and home dogs you should be fine to start the season.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
14,637
Are there more unders in the beginning of the year? I would think the weather is nasty in a lot of places.

Here are the UNDER win percentages by month and Estimated ROI percentage going back almost 20 years and over 42,500 regular season games. Pushes are not included here....

UNDEREstimated
Win %ROI %
April
49.8%​
-3.1%​
May
50.0%​
-2.6%​
June
51.2%​
-0.6%​
July
51.7%​
0.4%​
August
50.9%​
-1.1%​
September
50.6%​
-1.9%​

Remember, the line matters.

Here are those same numbers for March and October, but that study only involves 558 games...

UNDEREstimated
Win %ROI %
March
52.7%​
2.1%​
October
56.4%​
7.7%​

:hattip:
 
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