LT Profits
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- Feb 27, 2023
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Current: Yankees -113 (Bookmaker)
I bet Yanks at -109 at Heritage earlier, now -115 there
It is rare that you get Gerrit Cole of the Yankees at this cheap price at home, and we are backing him vs. Shane McClanahan and the Rays.
Not the Same Pitcher
McClanahan pitched at an elite level in his second season last year posting a 2;54 ERA and 2.60 xFIP, but his numbers are worse across the board this season and he has been worse recently. While he still has a good strikeout rate of 9.57 K/9, that is still down from 10,50 last year while his walks are up to 3.32 BB/9 from 2,06, and most disturbingly his hard-contact rate is up over 6% to 34.8%.
So, while his 3.00 ERA looks good on paper, it is accompanied by a noticeably worse 3.83 xFIP and he has struggled to a 5.09 ERA and 4.33 xFIP over his last seven starts.
Reasonable Price at Home
Cole may have a higher xFIP than usual at 3.62, but that is still better than McClanahan/s and Gerrit is in raging current form his last three starts, allowing just three runs and 10 hits with 26 strikeouts vs. two walks over 19.1 innings.
That leaves Cole at 9-2 with a 2.64 ERA and a 9.84/9 strikeout rate for the season, and he is facing a Tampa Bay offense that is not as imposing as earlier in the year. The Rays are tied with Atlanta for the MLB lead in wRC+ vs. righties at 118, but they are below average at 94 since July 1st.
So we cannot resist betting Cole and the Yankees at this price in this spot.
For ALL Wednesday Plays:
I bet Yanks at -109 at Heritage earlier, now -115 there
It is rare that you get Gerrit Cole of the Yankees at this cheap price at home, and we are backing him vs. Shane McClanahan and the Rays.
Not the Same Pitcher
McClanahan pitched at an elite level in his second season last year posting a 2;54 ERA and 2.60 xFIP, but his numbers are worse across the board this season and he has been worse recently. While he still has a good strikeout rate of 9.57 K/9, that is still down from 10,50 last year while his walks are up to 3.32 BB/9 from 2,06, and most disturbingly his hard-contact rate is up over 6% to 34.8%.
So, while his 3.00 ERA looks good on paper, it is accompanied by a noticeably worse 3.83 xFIP and he has struggled to a 5.09 ERA and 4.33 xFIP over his last seven starts.
Reasonable Price at Home
Cole may have a higher xFIP than usual at 3.62, but that is still better than McClanahan/s and Gerrit is in raging current form his last three starts, allowing just three runs and 10 hits with 26 strikeouts vs. two walks over 19.1 innings.
That leaves Cole at 9-2 with a 2.64 ERA and a 9.84/9 strikeout rate for the season, and he is facing a Tampa Bay offense that is not as imposing as earlier in the year. The Rays are tied with Atlanta for the MLB lead in wRC+ vs. righties at 118, but they are below average at 94 since July 1st.
So we cannot resist betting Cole and the Yankees at this price in this spot.
For ALL Wednesday Plays:
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