Win-Loss Record Ceilings & Floors For All NFL Teams 2023

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Win-loss record ceilings and floors for all 32 NFL teams in 2023​

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All 32 NFL teams have high expectations during training camp, but a lot can impact a Super Bowl race over 17 regular-season games. There are always surprises -- and variables we're not even thinking about during the preseason -- and 2023 will be no different.

To look at the bigger picture and just how good -- or bad -- every team could be this season, we turned to our ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). FPI projected win totals for every team based on 20,000 simulations of the entire season performed by our ESPN Stats & Information team, but to find a high and low, we picked out the middle 90% of those simulations. That gave us a ceiling and a floor in terms of expected record for each team in 2023, with extremely unlikely outliers eliminated. In other words, we identified the realistic best-case and worst-case scenarios for every team.

What can we expect for each team this season? If everything goes right, what might each team's record be? And if the worst scenario plays out, what would their records look like? We pulled the FPI ceilings and floors for every team, then asked our NFL Nation reporters to explain the biggest factor that will determine where each team falls within that win-total spectrum. Our reporters weren't allowed, however, to go with the easy answer and write about the success or failure of the quarterback they cover.

Let's go division-by-division, picking X factors for all 32 teams:

 

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AFC EAST​

Buffalo Bills​

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9

Biggest X factor: Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey's success in Year 2

The health and availability of Von Miller is also a factor in the Bills' ability to get over the postseason hump and win the AFC, if not the Super Bowl. But after the offense was inconsistent last year for a variety of reasons, especially in the second half of the season, Dorsey being on the same page with quarterback Josh Allen and taking some of the pressure off the quarterback's shoulders will be important. For the first time since drafting Allen, the Bills invested a first-round pick in an offensive player, tight end Dalton Kincaid, and how Dorsey integrates him in the offense is worth watching. -- Alaina Getzenberg

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Miami Dolphins​

Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: The defense's acclimation to new coordinator Vic Fangio's system

Miami took a major hit with the injury to cornerback Jalen Ramsey earlier in training camp, and it is now relying on the combination of Eli Apple, Cam Smith and Noah Igbinoghene to hold down the fort until Ramsey returns. The Dolphins' front seven is talented enough to hold its own, and we already know what this offense is capable of. But if Fangio can turn around a mediocre defense from a season ago, the path to winning the AFC could go through South Florida. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

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New England Patriots​

Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12

Biggest X factor: The defense's performance

This could be one of the best defenses in Bill Belichick's 24-year tenure as Patriots head coach. The unit finished 2022 as one of the league's best and lost just one player, as longtime safety and team captain Devin McCourty retired. The Patriots led the NFL in defensive retention and also used their first three draft picks on defenders who could carve out immediate roles in cornerback Christian Gonzalez, defensive end Keion White and linebacker/safety Marte Mapu. -- Mike Reiss

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New York Jets​

Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: The offensive line

Jets general manager Joe Douglas has invested a lot of resources in the offensive line over the years, but many of his moves haven't panned out for different reasons. The No. 1 priority is to protect 39-year old quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but there are some question marks: Will 38-year-old left tackle Duane Brown, coming off shoulder surgery, hold up? Is there a competent right tackle on the roster? Will second-round pick Joe Tippmann overtake Connor McGovern at center? If everything clicks, Rodgers & Co. will be a scary offense to face. -- Rich Cimini

 

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AFC NORTH​

Baltimore Ravens​

Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: Offensive coordinator Todd Monken

In his first year as the Ravens' new playcaller, Monken is in charge of getting Lamar Jackson and this once-dominant offense back on track. Since 2019, Baltimore is 27-5 (.844) when scoring more than 25 points. But the Ravens have been held to 20 points or less in 13 of their past 26 games, which is a problem. Monken is giving the Baltimore offense a different look -- more passing and more audibles -- in an attempt to provide a much-needed spark. -- Jamison Hensley

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Cincinnati Bengals​

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9

Biggest X factor: The secondary

The Bengals led the NFL in opposing completion percentage last season and were second in opposing Total QBR. But Cincinnati has replaced both starting safeties and top corner Chidobe Awuzie is coming off a torn ACL. If the group can continue the form it showed last season, the Bengals could hit their lofty ceiling. But if the group and defense struggle, it could mean regression for the back-to-back AFC North champs. -- Ben Baby

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Cleveland Browns​

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest X factor: The pass rush

Despite boasting All-Pro pass-rusher Myles Garrett, the Browns have collectively struggled to create sacks, tackles for loss and turnovers in recent years. Whether Cleveland can reach its ceiling will hinge heavily on whether new coordinator Jim Schwartz, and his aggressive style and schemes, can turn that around -- and turn the Browns' defense into a sack- and turnover-creating machine. -- Jake Trotter

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Pittsburgh Steelers​

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest X factor: Red zone offense

The Steelers averaged just 18.1 points per game in 2022 and scored touchdowns on only 50% of their red zone trips. With additions such as wide receiver Allen Robinson II and tight end Darnell Washington to complement receivers Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, running back Najee Harris and tight end Pat Freiermuth, the 2023 Steelers have all the players they need to score more points and reach their win ceiling, but Pittsburgh has to use them. It's a small sample size, but the first series of the first preseason game showed this team is capable of doing that -- quarterback Kenny Pickett completed 6 of 7 passes for 70 yards, including a touchdown pass to Pickens. -- Brooke Pryor

 

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AFC SOUTH​

Houston Texans​

Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13

Biggest X factor: Running back Dameon Pierce

The second-year tailback is the player who could lead the Texans to win more games than projected. Pierce was seventh in the NFL in rushing (939 yards) until he suffered an injury against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 13 during his rookie year. If the 2022 fourth-round pick stays healthy and takes another step forward, he could carry the Texans to a couple of upset wins. -- DJ Bien-Aime

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Indianapolis Colts​

Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13

Biggest X factor: Linebacker Shaquille Leonard

If Leonard can regain his form -- and that remains to be seen after two years of ankle issues -- the Colts have the potential to be among the best turnover-producing defenses in the NFL. Leonard has been a takeaway machine, and that has had a direct, positive impact on Indy's defense. The unit ranked in the top 10 in takeaways in each of his first four seasons but fell to 19th last season when Leonard missed 14 games. That's no coincidence. -- Stephen Holder

Jacksonville Jaguars​

Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: The pass rush

The Jaguars' biggest weakness entering the season is the same as it was when last season ended. They didn't draft a pass-rusher until the fifth round and have not tried to sign any of the available veterans. They're counting on 2022 No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker making a significant jump (he had 3.5 sacks as a rookie) and having edge rusher Josh Allen produce more than he did last season. Allen's 64 QB pressures were fourth in the NFL and his pressure percentage was seventh, but he had only seven sacks. One thing that would definitely help: Not playing from behind as much. The Jaguars trailed in nine of their last 11 games and won seven, including rallying from 27-0 deficit to beat the Chargers in a wild-card playoff game. -- Michael DiRocco

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Tennessee Titans​

Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12

Biggest X factor: The offensive line

The revamped line returns only one starter in Aaron Brewer, who is moving from left guard to center. Tennessee is banking on free agents Andre Dillard, Chris Hubbard and Daniel Brunskill, along with rookie Peter Skoronski, to fill the remaining spots. Things could get ugly if the new group doesn't come together and give quarterback Ryan Tannehill time to get the ball to the playmakers. The first three weeks will be a big test, as Tennessee faces premier pass-rushers Cameron Jordan, Joey Bosa and Myles Garrett. -- Turron Davenport

 

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AFC SOUTH​

Houston Texans​

Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13

Biggest X factor: Running back Dameon Pierce

The second-year tailback is the player who could lead the Texans to win more games than projected. Pierce was seventh in the NFL in rushing (939 yards) until he suffered an injury against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 13 during his rookie year. If the 2022 fourth-round pick stays healthy and takes another step forward, he could carry the Texans to a couple of upset wins. -- DJ Bien-Aime

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Indianapolis Colts​

Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13

Biggest X factor: Linebacker Shaquille Leonard

If Leonard can regain his form -- and that remains to be seen after two years of ankle issues -- the Colts have the potential to be among the best turnover-producing defenses in the NFL. Leonard has been a takeaway machine, and that has had a direct, positive impact on Indy's defense. The unit ranked in the top 10 in takeaways in each of his first four seasons but fell to 19th last season when Leonard missed 14 games. That's no coincidence. -- Stephen Holder

Jacksonville Jaguars​

Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: The pass rush

The Jaguars' biggest weakness entering the season is the same as it was when last season ended. They didn't draft a pass-rusher until the fifth round and have not tried to sign any of the available veterans. They're counting on 2022 No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker making a significant jump (he had 3.5 sacks as a rookie) and having edge rusher Josh Allen produce more than he did last season. Allen's 64 QB pressures were fourth in the NFL and his pressure percentage was seventh, but he had only seven sacks. One thing that would definitely help: Not playing from behind as much. The Jaguars trailed in nine of their last 11 games and won seven, including rallying from 27-0 deficit to beat the Chargers in a wild-card playoff game. -- Michael DiRocco

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Tennessee Titans​

Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12

Biggest X factor: The offensive line

The revamped line returns only one starter in Aaron Brewer, who is moving from left guard to center. Tennessee is banking on free agents Andre Dillard, Chris Hubbard and Daniel Brunskill, along with rookie Peter Skoronski, to fill the remaining spots. Things could get ugly if the new group doesn't come together and give quarterback Ryan Tannehill time to get the ball to the playmakers. The first three weeks will be a big test, as Tennessee faces premier pass-rushers Cameron Jordan, Joey Bosa and Myles Garrett. -- Turron Davenport

 

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AFC WEST​

Denver Broncos​

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest X factor: The number 60

This is not a particularly deep team, so it desperately needs tackles Mike McGlinchey and Garett Bolles, as well as outside linebackers Randy Gregory and Frank Clark, to each play at least 15 games to hit the combined 60-game mark. If they do, quarterback Russell Wilson will play better. Gregory has never played a full season, while McGlinchey and Clark have already missed practice time in camp. The Broncos' fingers are already crossed, but they need 60 games, at minimum, from those four to approach their win ceiling. -- Jeff Legwold

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Kansas City Chiefs​

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9


Biggest X factor: The pass rush

The Chiefs surprisingly finished second in the NFL in sacks last season, but can they remain among the league leaders? Defensive tackle Chris Jones, their leader in sacks in each of the past five seasons, is holding out in hopes of getting a better contract. Charles Omenihu, one of their major offseason free agent acquisitions, is suspended for the first six games. The Chiefs will need help from defensive end George Karlaftis, their first-round pick last year, and edge rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah, their top choice this year. -- Adam Teicher

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Las Vegas Raiders​

Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12

Biggest X factor: The health and ability of first-round draft pick Tyree Wilson

Sure, the Raiders already have two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Maxx Crosby, who had 12.5 sacks last season, and a potential future Hall of Famer in Chandler Jones, who is primed for a bounce-back season, but the Raiders used the No. 7 overall pick to make a strength even stronger at edge rusher. Wilson, though, opened camp on the NFI (non-football injury) list before being activated Wednesday after a foot injury ended his college season in November. His healthy presence would help not only the pass rush, but also the pass coverage for a defense in need of an upgrade. -- Paul Gutierrez

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Los Angeles Chargers​

Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: The defense

The expectations for Brandon Staley's defense have been steep after he produced the top-ranked unit as the Rams' defensive coordinator in 2020. However, the Chargers' defense has performed inconsistently in Staley's two seasons -- in part because of injuries but also because of an inability to consistently execute, especially against the run. With the expectation that offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and quarterback Justin Herbert will produce points, the defense's ability to improve on last season's 21st-ranked performance (allowing an average of 22.6 points per game) will prove critical to the team's success. -- Lindsey Thiry

 

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NFC EAST​

Dallas Cowboys​

Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: The health of the offensive line

Their front five of Tyron Smith, Tyler Smith, Tyler Biadasz, Zack Martin and Terence Steele is more than fine, but what happens when injuries occur? Tyron Smith has missed 33 games in the past three seasons and not played a full year since 2015. Steele is coming off a major knee injury. Offensive line depth is an issue across the league, so the Cowboys aren't alone, but they have questions about the unproven players behind their starters. -- Todd Archer

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New York Giants​

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest question: The health of tight end Darren Waller

Waller is this team's No. 1 receiver and a mismatch nightmare whom coach Brian Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka will use all over the field. It will be a much different -- and less explosive -- offense if Waller has trouble staying on the field like he has the past two seasons, in which he has only played 20 of a possible 34 games. Waller has only 83 receptions for 1,053 yards and five touchdowns the past two seasons after hauling in 107 receptions for 1,196 yards and nine touchdowns in 2020. -- Jordan Raanan

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Philadelphia Eagles​

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9

Biggest X factor: The Philly Dawgs

The Eagles have invested heavily in former Georgia players, and they'll be relied upon to plug some holes. Defensive tackles Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter will step in for the departed Javon Hargrave, Nakobe Dean will be in charge of running the defense after both starting linebackers departed in free agency, and running back D'Andre Swift has a chance to be the lead back with Miles Sanders now in Carolina. Their success will help dictate whether the Eagles make it back to the top of the NFC. -- Tim McManus

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Washington Commanders​

Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12

Biggest X factor: The offensive line

Washington has new starters at four offensive line positions, a necessary occurrence coming off a season in which it ranked 26th in pressure percentage. The Commanders also play in a division with excellent defensive ends, so their tackles, Charles Leno Jr. -- the lone holdover -- and free agent signee Andrew Wylie, must be solid. Right guard Sam Cosmi shifted from right tackle, and they signed Nick Gates to start at center. The line remains a work in progress, though the run blocking has been better than the pass protection so far. Their line won't rank among the NFL's best, but it needs to at least be middle of the pack for the Commanders to have a good season. -- John Keim

 

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NFC NORTH​

Chicago Bears​

Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12

Biggest X factor: Wide receiver DJ Moore

Entering a pivotal third season, quarterback Justin Fields finally has a go-to threat who is changing the capabilities of Chicago's passing game. Cornerbacks who guard Moore in practice have spoken about how much better they've become after learning how to defend against his speed. There's real optimism around where the Bears can go in the second year of their rebuild because of Moore, whom the Bears received when they traded away the No. 1 pick in March. "[It creates] automatic excitement in the whole building," coach Matt Eberflus said. "It doesn't matter what side you're playing on because you know this guy is special and he can make a lot of things happen." -- Courtney Cronin

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Detroit Lions​

Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10

Biggest X factor: Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson

The Lions ended the 2022 season on a high note, winning eight of their last 10 games thanks in large part to a top-five offense. Johnson was a head-coaching candidate but returned to a revamped offense, led by quarterback Jared Goff, but can he continue to be creative in his playcalling and work in new players such as rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta? Johnson's influence was strong on last year's roster, but the new offense looks a little different with the latest additions. -- Eric Woodyard

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Green Bay Packers​

Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest X factor: The defense

Packers president Mark Murphy said, "I think our defense probably will have to carry us a little bit in the early season." The question is, can it? The Packers thought they had a strong defense last season but started the year slowly. They're running it back with defensive coordinator Joe Barry, who has apparently made enough philosophical changes to appease players such as cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas, who want to play more aggressively in press coverage. When healthy, the Packers have eight first-round picks on defense, so there's talent there. -- Rob Demovsky

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Minnesota Vikings​

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest X factor: Defensive coordinator Brian Flores

He has been asked to turn around one of the NFL's worst defenses in 2022. Vikings opponents averaged 25.12 points per game last season -- the third most in the league. Flores will lead a group that will have at least six new starters, but not all of them are proven commodities. That makes Flores' scheme, which will feature a high blitz ratio along with multiple different looks up front, the most important component of any turnaround. -- Kevin Seifert

 

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NFC SOUTH​

Atlanta Falcons​

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 5-12

Biggest X factor: Defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen

If the Falcons' first-year coordinator is able to create a pass rush with Calais Campbell, David Onyemata and Bud Dupree (among others) surrounding defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, Atlanta could get its offense more possessions. In 2022, the Falcons ranked 26th in the league with a pass rush win rate of 35.3%. The aggressiveness could also help with creating turnovers, and the secondary has a lot of talent, including former first-round picks A.J. Terrell and Jeff Okudah at cornerback. -- Michael Rothstein

Carolina Panthers​

Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12

Biggest X factor: The defense

The Panthers' defense showed promise the second half of last season under interim coach Steve Wilks in a 4-3 base, and edge rusher Brian Burns continued to emerge as a star. Now with new coach Frank Reich and defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, they're transitioning to a 3-4 with a lot of new players, and the question of who will emerge as the outside linebacker opposite Burns remains a concern. If the season started right now, it would be done by committee. The defense has to play at a top-10 level, particularly in the first half of the season while the No. 1 overall pick, QB Bryce Young, grows into the offense. -- David Newton

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New Orleans Saints​

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest X factor: The offensive line

The fate of this team starts up front with a line that ranked 32nd in pass block win rate in 2022. There are a lot of questions on the left side. Presumed starting left tackle Trevor Penning is practically a rookie after two major injuries last season, and left guard Andrus Peat suffered a quad injury at camp. While current left guard James Hurst has shown himself capable of playing guard, the majority of his career has been at tackle. The Saints will need everything to come together this year to keep quarterback Derek Carr healthy and the offense productive. -- Katherine Terrell

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers​

Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13

Biggest X factor: Run blocking

Buccaneers running backs averaged just 2.5 yards per attempt in their preseason opener against the Steelers. And if you thought last season's offensive line shuffling was concerning, this year, the Buccaneers will likely have a different starter at every position than they had in Week 1 last season. Tristan Wirfs has moved to left tackle, Luke Goedeke has moved to right tackle, rookie Cody Mauch is expected to start at right guard and free agent Matt Feiler is at left guard. Center is also up in the air as Ryan Jensen recovers from a serious knee injury. They've committed to a more balanced attack under new offensive coordinator Dave Canales, but this instability could throw a wrench in those plans. -- Jenna Laine

 

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NFC WEST​

Arizona Cardinals​

Ceiling: 8-9 | Floor: 3-14

Biggest X factor: Running back James Conner

As Conner goes, so will the Cardinals' offense -- regardless of who's at quarterback. Coming off the second-best season of his career with 782 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, Conner will again be the leader of Arizona's running game, which means he'll have a significant role in first-year coordinator Drew Petzing's scheme. All offseason, the Cardinals have said they're going to commit to the run more this season than in the past. That will fall on Conner. If he can get going, especially early in the season behind a revamped offensive line, the Cardinals' passing game will come into shape quicker than expected. If not, Arizona will become one-dimensional and run into trouble. -- Josh Weinfuss

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Los Angeles Rams​

Ceiling: 10-7 | Floor: 5-12

Biggest X factor: Linebacker Byron Young

Rookies are being asked to step up at multiple positions for the Rams as they rebuild, so the newbies have a significant influence on the team's success or failure. Nowhere is this more obvious than at outside linebacker, where third-round pick Young is a likely opening-day starter. Given the obvious need for pressure off the edge with the departure of Leonard Floyd -- who had nine or more sacks in each of the past three seasons -- the Rams would benefit immensely if Young's mix of speed and power translates into a potent pass-rush force immediately. -- Dan Greenspan

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San Francisco 49ers​

Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9

Biggest X factor: The offensive line


The Niners ranked 20th in pass block win rate and 17th in run block win rate last season -- and it didn't prevent them from making a run to the NFC Championship Game. But San Francisco then lost starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey and rotational lineman Daniel Brunskill in free agency, leaving tackle Colton McKivitz and guard Spencer Burford -- who have a combined 21 NFL starts between them -- to handle the right side of the line. The Niners' offensive line has been mostly solid in recent years, but the deeper they get in the playoffs, the more troubles they've had against some of the league's best pass-rushers. To reach their peak, they'll need McKivitz and Burford to take significant steps forward. -- Nick Wagoner

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Seattle Seahawks​

Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11

Biggest X factor: The defensive line

The Seahawks' front seven underperformed in 2022 while transitioning to a 3-4, leading to an offseason overhaul centered around the splash signing of defensive end Dre'Mont Jones (three years, $51.53 million) and a reunion with linebacker Bobby Wagner. Only four of the 10 defensive linemen and linebackers who played at least 300 snaps for Seattle last season are still with the team, and one of them, Jordyn Brooks, is coming off major knee surgery and questionable for Week 1. There's more talent and better scheme fits up front compared to last season, but there are a lot of new players who will have to play more cohesively than their predecessors. -- Brady Henderson