Why are the Utah Jazz underdog tonight at home against thunder

[lekidecincinnati]

is this a fucking joke, guess they are giving away free money tonight


utah jazz ml +135
utah jazz alt line -6.5 +270

jazz by double digits

gambling is easy

 

[Microphone]

To answer, because they're 6 games back of OKC in the West. But if you ask yourself that, maybe there's the reason to take OKC, I don't know. I hope you win.

 

[BigJay]

Because they know

They always know

 

[jjgold]

Lines never wrong

 

[KVB]

A bunch of OKC players listed as questionable with non COVID illness about an hour ago.

Luguenta Dort probably the most influential player in the group as he averages 11.3 points, 3.9 boards, 1.4 assists per game and plays 28.6 minutes a game.

Other players more like 10 and 11 minute players with less contribution.

This game has been circled.

 

[KVB]

Lines never wrong

The stacking percentages Forecast, the best I make for the NBA, has OKC winning with 124 points to Utah's 117 or 118 points.

The non-predictive public gauge has OKC winning 122-117.

I make a range of Forecasts and none of them give OKC the outright win and all are close to the 3 to 6 point OKC victory.

Most forecasts are also consistent with stacking Percentages forecast and gauge when it comes to the TOTAL and predicting an UNDER against the TOTAL with a half point discrepency.

The BMR model has OKC winning 123-121, and is close to the TOTAL.

Lines can be wrong but there is a lot of evidence here to explain the current line.

Despite the Forecasts and what they represent my sources tell me that Utah is getting more action on this game on both spread and the moneyline in what is a higher volume game relative the rest of the NBA board. That report of action and volume is still being corroborated and I have confidence in the relative volume report, but am still gaining that confidence in the side report so the report is subject to change.

The public may be on Utah, but this is my answer to why the line is what it is.

But at this point, there have been some injury reports and the game is circled.

I expect the TOTAL to drop off of the 245 and 244.5 and go a little lower.

I have evidence of earlier sharper trades made in the market, mostly out of New Jersey in an RLM style on OKC, consistent with the Forecast and with public being on Utah. These were sharper buyers at -3, earlier.

I do not carry an opinion on the movement of the spread with the injury news, yet. I am still gathering information.

 

[KVB]

I make a range of Forecasts and none of them give OKC the outright win and all are close to the 3 to 6 point OKC victory.

This should say none of them give Utah the outright win and if illness does keep those players off the floor any potential subs/minutes alterations do not alter the moneyline towards Utah.

Perhaps @LT Profits would have an opinion if he is working the NBA, and feels like playing around with the player minutes.

But it does close in the spread a little bit.

There's a good chance cincikid beats the closing line here on both the alternate spread and moneyline.

 

[jjgold]

Utah is the logical play but we know how that goes

 

[KVB]

I do not carry an opinion on the movement of the spread with the injury news, yet.

But it does close in the spread a little bit.

This line will likely pull off of any 3.5s to 3 by game time.

 

[KVB]

Utah is the logical play but we know how that goes

Maybe, but the value might reside in the OKC moneyline before it's all said and done.

 

[KVB]

OKC expected line up is out.

Chet Holmgren
Jalen Williams
Luguentz Dort (I guess he's not so ill after all)
Gilgeous Alexander
Josh Giddy

 

[KVB]

But at this point, there have been some injury reports and the game is circled.

I expect the TOTAL to drop off of the 245 and 244.5 and go a little lower.

I was wrong here. Info changed, the starter that was questionable became expected in the starting line ups and the TOTAL went the other way, to 246.

This line will likely pull off of any 3.5s to 3 by game time.

This line still dropped, to 3s pretty much everywhere.

Most forecasts are also consistent with stacking Percentages forecast and gauge when it comes to the TOTAL and predicting an UNDER against the TOTAL with a half point discrepency.

The line moved away from the Forecasts and the score went OVER the Total, consistent with the movement.

This is something I track in the market for each forecast, for both Spreads and Totals.

The stacking percentages Forecast, the best I make for the NBA, has OKC winning with 124 points to Utah's 117 or 118 points.

The non-predictive public gauge has OKC winning 122-117.

I make a range of Forecasts and none of them give OKC the outright win and all are close to the 3 to 6 point OKC victory.

Final margin of was 5 points, with OKC covering the spread, consistent with the forecasts and right on the public gauge.

The BMR model has OKC winning 123-121

Take that BMR Model!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[BMR Genie]

I know LT took the Jazz 3.5.

I was also rooting for the Jazz last night, damn!

 

[jjgold]

Thunder won easy

they always know