Which Word Series Contenders Need To Win NOW

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Ranking which World Series contenders most need to win now​

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Which team most needs to win the World Series?

A few years ago, I adapted a Bill James formula to answer this question. The idea is that the more success a franchise accumulates without winning it all, the more the pressure builds for the organization. The more intense the pressure, the more intense the celebration when the team actually wins.

The system is built on the year-by-year accumulation of "pressure points." There are three ways to compile pressure points:

1. Not winning the World Series.
2. Not winning a pennant.
3. Having a "good" season (defined as .500 or better in this adaptation of the James system) without winning a pennant or title.

The first two factors build up each season a team doesn't accomplish one of those feats, but the counter rolls back to zero if it crosses the threshold. The third factor is based on the past 25 years only and doesn't ever quite roll back. It just looks at how frequently a team is good, which is roughly defined as being in the postseason conversation. (A lower bar to clear than it once was because of playoff expansion.)

The idea is to capture a kind of "knocking on the door" dynamic, one that isn't there if a team is merely out of the running year in and year out. There's pressure in that, too, but a different kind of pressure.

Finally, the James system has been adapted with an "urgency" factor based on how many pending free agents each team has and how much value (by bWAR) those walk-year players provided to the team in 2023.

The last time we ran these numbers was just prior to the 2019 postseason. The top two teams then were the Nationals and Dodgers, who proceeded to win the next two World Series. Thus, it's a good time to take another look.

Here is a ranking of this year's playoff contenders by pressure points, followed by a list of the teams out of the running. The rankings include the 17 teams that have nonzero chances at getting into the 2023 postseason.

 

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17. Houston Astros

Pressure points: 134

Last title: 2022

The defending champs have no pressure points in the World Series and pennant categories. There is still some buildup from the Astros' continued success in recent years and the fact that their fan base has become spoiled. Which isn't a bad thing -- it's what comes along with six straight trips to the ALCS. In any event, right now the pressure on Dusty Baker's Houston club has nothing to do with replicating its success in the postseason. After getting swept by the 102-loss Royals at home over the weekend, the tension around the Astros stems from the fact that they might not get back to the playoffs at all.

 

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16. Atlanta Braves

Pressure points: 153.5

Last title: 2021

For the Braves, champions just two years ago, the only pressure stems from the fact that they are just so good. They'll enter the playoffs as heavy favorites to win their second title in three years. The pressure points system gives Atlanta a break, but when you're supposed to win, that favorite's status generates its own tension.

 

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15. Miami Marlins

Pressure points: 154.2

Last title: 2003

The Marlins haven't won a title in 20 years. Nevertheless, the fact that this typically moribund franchise has won two championships during its existence seems like more than enough to keep the pressure off for some time to come. The Marlins have those two championships but still have never won a division title. There's their pressure point. As for the playoffs, if the Marlins get in, it'll all be gravy from there.

 

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14. San Francisco Giants

Pressure points: 159.7

Last title: 2014

The Giants' trio of titles last decade keeps them from building up too many points in this system. Also keeping them down the list is the fact that they haven't had many good seasons since winning that 2014 championship. Barring a late turnaround, the Giants could be looking at their sixth finish of .500 or worse in the past seven seasons. That being the case, the pressure points system isn't making matters worse for Frisco.

Even if it were, it wouldn't matter as the Giants eked into the playoff bracket in just two of 10,000 simulations in the final forecast prior to this writing. I even debated leaving them out but, hey, nonzero is nonzero. In any event, the pressure on the Giants is coming from their fan base, which seems to be dissatisfied with this no-stars version of a large-market franchise that hasn't been operated like one. The trajectory of the season hasn't helped. After a trade deadline at which the Giants did little to bolster their roster, they still looked like they might be able to mix and match their way into another postseason. It has not worked out.

 

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13. Philadelphia Phillies

Pressure points: 170.2

Last title: 2008

The Phillies reset the pennant portion of their pressure formula last season with their rousing postseason run, one that wouldn't have happened had MLB not expanded the playoff format. Still, Philly finished just two wins shy of a championship from its slot as a 6-seed, and a pennant is a pennant.

This year's club is better. Philly has a shot at its first 90-win season since a run of five straight NL East titles through 2011. It's also their best team since that time in terms of run differential. The Phillies will once again enter the postseason as a wild-card team but the expectations are a little higher this time around. And the fact that we saw most of this year's Phils in last year's World Series creates a certain amount of pressure by itself.

 

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12. Los Angeles Dodgers

Pressure points: 173.6

Last title: 2020

As mentioned, the Dodgers topped the rankings in 2019, the last time we ran the numbers. At that point, L.A. hadn't won a title since 1988 despite perennially featuring one of the majors' strongest clubs. That aspect of their pressure points finally reset with the 2020 championship, clinched in a mostly empty Globe Life Field after the pandemic-shortened 60-game regular season.

The nature of that Dodgers championship isn't and probably can't be factored into this system. Really, the 2020 crown should be above reproach because L.A. dominated the short season and had proved itself to be the best team in the bigs over a multiyear period. That the Dodgers won that title in some ways redeemed the short season.

And still... the Dodgers won a short-season title in 1981 and another in 2020. In-between was that 1988 title, but is that enough given how many games the franchise has won during all that time? Is one short-season title enough for a team that just won its 10th NL West title in 11 years? The Dodgers might have fallen back in the pressure points system but in a narrative sense it feels like there is still plenty of urgency for them to win a championship.

 

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11. Tampa Bay Rays

Pressure points: 186.1

Last title: Never

The 2020 pennant took a little pressure off the Rays, but the franchise is still hunting for that elusive first title. Tampa Bay has little in the way of pending free agents but what it does have is a growing track record of regular-season success. Since the franchise's breakout season in 2008, only the Yankees and Dodgers have won more games. The Rays have become perhaps the best-run franchise in the majors and fans have noticed: This year's attendance is the club's highest since 2014. If the Rays finally get over the finish line in their ongoing effort to get a new ballpark built, it would be nice to reward those fans with a World Series banner to hang in the new venue.

 

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10. Chicago Cubs

Pressure points: 188.2

Last title: 2016

If I had run the numbers back in 2016, the Cubs would have obviously lapped the field on the strength of their historic run of futility. The 2016 championship released that pressure in a mighty eruption of steam, and the people of Chicago flooded Grant Park for the celebration. It was an unforgettable event in the city.

It was also seven years ago and all of those Cubs except starter Kyle Hendricks are gone (unless you want to include catcher-turned-skipper David Ross). It would take 101 years of continuing futility to match the urgency of the 2016 crown, but the pressure is definitely on these Cubs, if only because of their list of possible free agents. That list includes Cody Bellinger, Marcus Stroman, Jeimer Candelario and Hendricks.

 

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9. Arizona Diamondbacks

Pressure points: 196.6

Last title: 2001

Since the Randy Johnson-Curt Schilling-Luis Gonzalez Diamondbacks beat the Yankees in the 2001 series, Arizona has finished last more often than first. The Diamondbacks have only that lone pennant in their history and haven't won a playoff game since 2011. Like Cincinnati, this year's team is built on an influx of dynamic young talent, so the future is promising. Still, there is no guarantee Arizona will get another postseason shot with a rotation one-two punch like Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, at least not while they are both among the game's elite starters. No team, no matter how young, can take any postseason opportunity for granted.

 

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8. Cincinnati Reds

Pressure points: 215.3

Last title: 1990

The Reds are 33 years removed from a title and haven't often been in contention during that time. Mostly, Cincinnati has squeezed in a few good seasons in-between extensive periods of rebuilding. But this title drought is becoming one of epic length for a franchise that has enjoyed amazing highs.

Cincinnati won its first title in 1919 (over the Black Sox, but still) and then won again in 1940. No. 3 didn't come around until the Big Red Machine won the first of two straight in 1975. No. 5 was the 1990 crown. So the 35-year gap between No. 2 and No. 3 was the longest Cincinnati drought. That could change in a couple of years.

Of course, things might change now, because this year's Reds have burst onto the scene with some of the most exciting young players in baseball. Cincinnati needs to finish with a major flourish, or its season will be over a week from now. Either way, the future looks bright and the pressure will start to build accordingly.

There is one other bit of urgency for this year's Reds: Joey Votto is a free agent after the season. We don't know what's going to happen after that. Votto is almost certainly the best player in franchise history who has never won a title with the Reds. This might be the last chance to change that.

 

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7. Toronto Blue Jays

Pressure points: 227.8

Last title: 1993

You have to be a certain age to make this observation, but 30 years goes by fast. Has it really been three decades since Joe Carter's title-clinching blast against the Phillies in 1993? Yes, it has. And the Blue Jays have now entered several competitive cycles without repeating that level of ultimate success.

Toronto lost in the ALCS in back-to-back years during the past decade (2015-2016) behind a bashing lineup led by Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. It then went into a rebuild that by the standard of such endeavors was pretty brief. But now the pressure is amping up once again, as this is Toronto's fourth straight winning season and its third playoff appearance in four years. This edition of Jays contention has yet to see a single playoff victory.

As the patience of Toronto fans starts to wear, the Blue Jays are also looking at an offseason with several key contributors possibly headed for free agency. Among them are Matt Chapman, Hyun Jin Ryu, Whit Merrifield, Brandon Belt, Kevin Kiermaier and Jordan Hicks.

 

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6. Baltimore Orioles

Pressure points: 241.5

Last title: 1983

There are two ways to alleviate pressure in the system: Win a title, or stink for a really long period. During their history as the St. Louis Browns and Baltimore Orioles, this franchise has experienced both methods.

During Baltimore's very deep recent rebuild, the pressure was temporarily off. That'll happen when you lose 108 or more games three times in four years. But the pressure valve was turned back on last season, when the Orioles finished over .500 and now it's ratcheting back up for the best of reasons: The O's are closing in on an AL East title and the top seed in the circuit's playoff bracket.

This year marks the 40-year anniversary of the last Orioles championship, which was the last hurrah of the Earl Weaver-era Baltimore clubs (though Weaver himself had stepped into his first retirement, leaving Joe Altobelli to guide the '83 team to the title.) Other than young star Cal Ripken Jr., that was an ancient bunch of Birds, one that beat an even older flock in the World Series. (The 1983 NL champ Phillies included such geezers as Pete Rose, Tony Perez, Joe Morgan and Steve Carlton.)

This Baltimore team is very different from that bunch. This one is bursting with young talent, the best collection of new stars in the game. With Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez and the rest just getting started, the pressure on converting talent into titles will only build from here. Unless, of course, the Orioles win it all in a few weeks.

 

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5. Minnesota Twins

Pressure points: 262.3

Last title: 1991

The Twins have two World Series titles to show for their time in Minnesota, plus the 1924 crown when they were the original Washington Senators. (We're ignoring Washington entrants from the pre-World Series era.)

I have played with a component in the formula that looks at playoff games -- and losses -- and might include it in future iterations of the system. If the Twins flop in this year's playoffs, that component alone could vault them to the top of this list. Twins fans surely are tired of reading these words, but facts are facts and this one remains one of the most remarkable in sports: Minnesota has lost its past 18 playoff games.

The pressure points system is centered on the idea of winning it all. In Minnesota, when it comes to the playoffs, the need to win just one game is as intense as the need to win a title.

 

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4. San Diego Padres

Pressure points: 270.9

Last title: Never

Well, the Padres had a nonzero shot at the playoffs as of this writing, but an extra-inning loss to the Cardinals on Sunday pushed that number pretty close to extinction. If indeed San Diego's late-season dash falls short of the NL bracket, it will ensure that the franchise's title drought continues. Born into existence for the 1969 season, the Padres are another one of those six zero-title teams.

The Padres also top the urgency portion of the pressure formula with the most potential free agent value on their roster. Topping that list are Cy Young candidate Blake Snell and star closer Josh Hader. There's no payroll component to the pressure system but if there were, the Padres might well top the list.

 

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3. Seattle Mariners

Pressure points: 273.6

Last title: Never

The Mariners ended one epic unwanted streak last year by making the playoffs for the first time since 2001. Yet they have two forever streaks intact: The Mariners (first season, 1977) have never won the title and, making historical matters worse, have also never won an AL flag. Seattle remains the only active franchise that has never played in the World Series.

With a young and elite starting rotation in place and a generational superstar atop the roster in second-year outfielder Julio Rodriguez, the Mariners are well situated for an extended run of knocking. But the banging is already plenty loud, as it should be for a franchise that has had a lot of strong seasons and elite stars, but nary a flag.

 

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2. Texas Rangers

Pressure points: 291.7

Last title: Never

The Rangers haven't been putting up much in the way of good seasons over the past half decade, but are now 12 years removed from its back-to-back pennants in 2010 and 2011. The Rangers are also one of the six extant teams that have never won a World Series, but Texas' title drought began years earlier than those of newer franchises without championships. This one dates back to 1961, when the franchise began as the new Washington Senators.

On top of that, only one team has more pending free agents than the Rangers. On the list are core contributors such as catcher/DH Mitch Garver, starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery and reliever Aroldis Chapman. The Rangers are still in a solid long-term position, but there's no guarantee they'll churn out teams as good as this year's bunch, one that has featured career-level seasons from veterans such as Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.

Now that the Rangers have seemingly reversed what, for a couple of weeks earlier this month, looked like a collapse, the pressure is back on. The time is now.

 

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1. Milwaukee Brewers

Pressure points: 299

Last title: Never

The Brewers have won just one pennant despite a number of successful eras. That came in 1982, when Milwaukee was in the American League. The Brewers haven't taken a flag since moving to the National League in 1998, and have never won a World Series title.

The pressure has been building in the Craig Counsell era, which began during the 2015 season. There was a close call in 2018, when Milwaukee fell one win shy of making the World Series, and this will be the Brewers' fifth playoff appearance in six years. The past two times Milwaukee missed the postseason -- 2017 and 2022 -- it was just a game out of the final slot. This team has been knock-knock-knocking on the door every season.

Nevertheless, the Brewers will enter the playoffs a little off the radar as the third-best division champ in a National League hierarchy with two behemoths in the Braves and Dodgers. So while the top spot in the pressure rankings might not create many national ripples, you can bet those in Milwaukee are and have been champing at the bit.

Finally, if we're talking urgency -- and we are -- consider this: Counsell, perhaps the game's best manager, is working on an expiring contract and hasn't offered much insight as to what he'll be doing next year. This might be the Brewers' last, best chance to win that first title for some time.