What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB Games

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• The Pirates/Cubs game gives us two great streamers as well. While the Cubs may have some residual name value, they are one of the league's weaker squads. (Obviously, so are the Pirates.) Plus, this game takes place in PNC Park, giving both pitchers a favorable park shift. Zach Thompson (rostered in 2% of ESPN leagues) and Drew Smyly (1% rostered) are nearly universally available and both in great matchups.
• The Texas Rangers made the interesting (and fun!) decision to leave their roof open to 88-degree weather during their home opener. While this isn't quite the launching pad that the old Globe Life used to be, a continuance of this trend could make it lean more that way. It won't be as hot on Tuesday, but it's still the hottest game on the slate at nearly 80 degrees, 70% humidity, and 18-mph winds to left field (also the strongest of the day). The Rangers actually project to score the most runs on the slate, according to THE BAT X.
• There may be a prop-betting opportunity on the Orioles game today. The fences at Camden Yards were raised and moved back (a lot) over the winter, projecting to turn an elite hitters' park into a neutral one. For fantasy, this hurts Orioles hitters, but from a betting perspective, there is opportunity. Surprisingly, there were some very favorable over odds on most of the HR props from this game yesterday, according to THE BAT X, suggesting this market has overcorrected for the fences. Since the sharper game-level Over/Under market was aligned with THE BAT X, we have plenty of reason to believe it's the prop lines which are off. Brewers bats Andrew McCutchen (46%) and Rowdy Tellez (3%) are most likely to out-do the power expectations.

 

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FPTS	Team	Pitcher	T	Opp	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	BR	K
14.2		Shane Bieber	R	@CIN	-110	8.0	38.7%	6.0	2.5	6.9	7.7
13.8		Zack Wheeler	R	NYM	-150	8.5	46.8%	6.3	2.6	7.4	6.5
13.5		Yu Darvish	R	@SF	-120	7.5	35.3%	5.7	2.2	6.3	6.8
10.3		Luis Garcia	R	@ARI	-160	9.0	44.3%	5.2	2.6	6.8	5.0
9.4		Tyler Mahle	R	CLE	-110	8.0	23.4%	5.1	2.5	6.5	5.9
9.3		Dakota Hudson	R	KC	-160	9.0	32.3%	5.0	2.1	6.5	4.5
9.0		Adam Oller	R	@TB	+180	8.5	25.6%	4.9	2.2	6.3	5.1

 

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8.7		Patrick Corbin	L	@ATL	+140	9.5	32.0%	5.8	3.3	7.9	5.8
8.7		Madison Bumgarner	L	HOU	+140	9.0	31.6%	5.5	3.0	6.9	4.9
8.4		Rich Hill	L	@DET	-125	9.0	23.6%	4.7	2.2	5.9	4.6
8.4		Alex Cobb	R	SD	+100	7.5	23.6%	5.1	2.2	6.8	4.9
8.4		Tylor Megill	R	@PHI	+130	8.5	23.6%	5.2	2.8	6.7	5.5
8.3		Jesus Luzardo	L	@LAA	+130	9.0	25.7%	5.1	2.6	6.9	5.2
8.3		Matt Brash	R	@CWS	+105	9.0	27.0%	4.9	2.5	6.5	4.9
7.9		Patrick Sandoval	L	MIA	-150	9.0	20.8%	4.8	2.3	6.4	4.8

 

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7.9		Tommy Romero	R	OAK	-210	8.5	15.0%	4.4	1.9	5.6	4.5
7.9		Drew Smyly	L	@PIT	-115	8.5	27.9%	4.9	2.7	6.6	5.0
7.4		Andrew Heaney	L	@MIN	-145	9.0	27.2%	5.0	3.0	7.1	5.6
7.2		Eric Lauer	L	@BAL	-160	9.0	26.8%	4.7	2.8	6.8	4.9
7.2		Nestor Cortes	L	TOR	-130	9.5	21.4%	4.6	2.6	6.1	4.9
6.9		Bryce Elder	R	WSH	-160	9.5	22.1%	4.8	2.7	6.7	4.6
6.8		Yusei Kikuchi	L	@NYY	+110	9.5	27.7%	5.2	3.1	7.4	4.9
6.6		Zach Thompson	R	CHC	-105	8.5	13.7%	4.2	2.0	5.4	4.0
6.4		Vince Velasquez	R	SEA	-125	9.0	14.1%	4.4	2.4	5.9	4.6
5.9		Chris Archer	R	LAD	+125	9.0	19.7%	4.5	2.8	6.5	4.8
5.3		Tyler Alexander	L	BOS	+105	9.0	17.3%	4.7	2.8	6.4	3.9
4.5		Daniel Lynch	L	@STL	+140	9.0	15.7%	4.7	2.8	6.8	3.8
4.2		Chad Kuhl	R	@TEX	+140	10.0	15.3%	4.3	3.0	6.6	4.2
2.9		Martin Perez	L	COL	-160	10.0	19.5%	4.8	3.7	7.6	3.9
0.0		TBD		MIL	+140	9.0	0.0%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

 

[BobbyFK]

Thanks for the breakdown and analysis into the game

 

[Tanko]

Fantastic information biggins. THanks.

 

[Tanko]

Biggins, Do you use THE BAT X metric data to make plays on teams or just for Prop bets and Fantasy?
Its relatively new and was wondering if it is leveraging for sides, totals, or F5s.

THE BAT has been around a couple of years (I think came out shortly after statcast data).
Maybe you use it.

Just curious.

 

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Pitchers that should win based on BAA. These were the only two from today’s card that met criteria of at least.235 BAA

Shane Bieber Batter vs. Pitching Stats - ESPN

View the full batter vs. pitching stats of Cleveland Guardians Starting Pitcher Shane Bieber on ESPN. Includes full stats per MLB opponent.

www.espn.com

Zack Wheeler Batter vs. Pitching Stats - ESPN

View the full batter vs. pitching stats of Philadelphia Phillies Starting Pitcher Zack Wheeler on ESPN. Includes full stats per MLB opponent.

www.espn.com

 

[biggins]

Biggins, Do you use THE BAT X metric data to make plays on teams or just for Prop bets and Fantasy?
Its relatively new and was wondering if it is leveraging for sides, totals, or F5s.

THE BAT has been around a couple of years (I think came out shortly after statcast data).
Maybe you use it.

Just curious.

No just copy and paste

 

[Tanko]

Thanks biggins. If you leverage any plays from the data, please post them.

 

[lemartinsports]

oh wow, was not expecting this great amount of info. you are truly awesome. thank you biggins!

 

[vitterd]

Tuesday is the absolute worst day of the week for so many reasons.

 

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Edit:

MARLINS VS. ANGELS TUESDAY MLB PROBABLE PITCHERS, INJURY REPORT, ODDS: MIKE TROUT EXPECTED BACK; MIAMI'S JESUS LUZARDO HISTORICALLY BAD ON ROAD​

Angels star Mike Trout should play tonight vs. the Marlins.​

When three-time AL MVP Mike Trout was ruled out for Monday's home series opener against the Miami Marlins, this writer recommended betting the Under on that game total of 9.5. It worked as the Angels prevailed 6-2. Trout was dealing with a non-COVID illness (that's really going around in all sports) but felt much better this morning and should play tonight in Game 2 of the series. The Angels are -150 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Trout hasn't really gotten going yet, going 3-for-13 with a double, homer, run scored and three strikeouts in his first three games. He was actually available to pinch-hit Monday but wasn't needed. That Trout sat out might have been the best thing to happen for the Angels because one-time mega-touted prospect Jo Adell had really been scuffling and was to sit out Monday but started because of no Trout and had had his first two hits of the season, including a homer, and two RBIs.

Adell entered Monday night with a 34.8 percent contact rate, the lowest in the major leagues. We'd imagine Adell will not sit Tuesday now. Reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani also is off to a slow start at the plate, batting .143 without an RBI and five strikeouts in 21 at-bats.

Miami starts lefty Jesus Luzardo tonight, and he was 6-9 with a 6.61 ERA last year with the A's and Marlins. Trout is 0-for-1 career off him and Ohtani 1-for-2 with a solo homer. Ohtani is +235 to homer tonight and Trout +370.

Luzardo, incidentally, has just one win in 17 career road outings (eight starts), going 1-6 with a 7.03 ERA away from his home ballpark.

It's lefty Patrick Sandoval for the Angels. He made 17 appearances (14 starts) for the Angels last year, going 3-6 with a 3.62 ERA. He just can't catch a break at home as in 19 career games (15 starts) at Angel Stadium, Sandoval is 1-9 despite a 3.95 ERA. He has never faced the Marlins.

 

[biggins]

Pitchers that should win based on BAA. These were the only two from today’s card that met criteria of at least.235 BAA

Shane Bieber Batter vs. Pitching Stats - ESPN

View the full batter vs. pitching stats of Cleveland Guardians Starting Pitcher Shane Bieber on ESPN. Includes full stats per MLB opponent.

www.espn.com

Zack Wheeler Batter vs. Pitching Stats - ESPN

View the full batter vs. pitching stats of Philadelphia Phillies Starting Pitcher Zack Wheeler on ESPN. Includes full stats per MLB opponent.

www.espn.com

Well Bieber had a no no through five and then imploded in the 6th blew a 4 run lead. Boy was l pissed. A six run 9th for Cleveland hope I’m not jinxing but HELL yea. Let’s go Wheeler.

 

[Enikk]

Great info Biggins!!