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What you need to know for Thursday's MLB Games

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biggins

biggins

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Jan 18, 2022
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3,924
  • After a pair of lackluster outings to open the season, Dakota Hudson (5% rostered in ESPN leagues) spun 6⅔ scoreless frames against the Cincinnati Reds his last time out. The right-hander gets another favorable draw on Thursday, as he squares off against an Arizona Diamondbacks team that sports a 77 wRC+ and a bloated 25.8% strikeout rate. Although he doesn't possess overpowering stuff, Hudson is an extreme groundball pitcher with an elite infield defense behind him, giving him plenty of streaming appeal against one of baseball's weakest offenses.
  • Since returning from the injured list, all Taylor Ward (10% rostered) has done is hit .353 with three dingers, nine runs, five RBIs, and a steal in 10 games.
    • Perhaps most importantly, he's been a mainstay in the Los Angeles Angels lineup, frequently batting first or second, ahead of Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. As someone who has consistently posted double-digit walk rates across his professional career, he's a big contributor in OBP leagues as well. If you're in need of either short- or long-term outfield help, Ward is an enticing add right now. Fellow Angels outfielder, Brandon Marsh (24.6%), who is batting .308/.396/.538 through 14 games, also deserves consideration.
    • Jameson Taillon (22%) has delivered three straight starts with two or fewer earned runs allowed, yet his roster percentage has remained stagnant. Sure, it would be nice to see the right-hander miss a few more bats (8.0 K/9) and find a way to limit the homers (1.8 HR/9). However, he's showing pinpoint control (0.6 BB/9) with what's essentially a six-pitch mix, and it's working right now. Given the longball issues, there might be some hesitation throwing Taillon out there against some of the league's more dangerous lineups, but that's not the case on Thursday with the Baltimore Orioles on the docket. The Orioles currently have a 26.7% strikeout rate and an 80 wRC+ that ranks bottom-three in the American League.
    • Seattle Mariners right-hander Chris Flexensports a 3.63 ERA across three starts, but the underlying numbers suggest some rough times ahead. Not only is he pitching to contact (5.7 K/9), but he's allowing lots of very loud contact, as his 56.4% hard-hit rate is worst in the American League. The Tampa Bay Rays should be all over Flexen in this matchup, so it would be good to get some exposure to their left-handed bats. Ji-Man Choi (27%), with a 1.027 OPS versus righties this season, Josh Lowe (8%), and the switch-hitting Taylor Walls (1%) all make for interesting streaming and DFS plays on Thursday.
    • There are some red flags with Nick Martinez(1%), most notably a 6.1 BB/9 and a 3.1 HR/9, but we've seen some promising signs, too, as his changeup generates an impressive 42.4% whiff rate and a .111 wOBA against. If he alters his pitch mix a bit to rely less on his fastball and more on his secondary offerings, there could be something here. For now, Martinez can't be considered a safe streamer or DFS option by any means, but the risk is minimal against a Reds offense that can't seem to get things going, ranking dead last in MLB with a 56 wRC+ and a 27% strikeout rate.
 

biggins

biggins

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Jan 18, 2022
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I wake up late here in sunny Southern California so thought the board might want to get a head start. The guy has some good content. Fantasy analysis via Analytics
 

biggins

biggins

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Jan 18, 2022
Messages
3,924
And he’s touting Taylor Ward who hit a grand slam tonight hit two home runs the other night and is becoming the toast of the town. That top of the lineup is potent. Bet the Angels till they lose l see a steak coming. They have good pitching too boot finally after all these years.
 

biggins

biggins

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PERALTA is 2-1 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 2.17 and a WHIP of 0.931.
His team's record is 3-2 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.3 units)
 

biggins

biggins

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QUINTANA is 9-4 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of 1.016.
His team's record is 12-5 (+6.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-11. (-7.2 units)
 

biggins

biggins

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MAHLE is 1-1 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.571.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)
 

biggins

biggins

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Games over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 11-1 (+10.0 Units) against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.6 Units)
Games this season
SAN DIEGO is 5-0 (+5.0 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.9 Units)
All games at CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 4-1 (+3.0 Units) against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.8 Units)
Games played at CINCINNATI this season.
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)
 

biggins

biggins

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ROGERS is 0-2 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.26 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)
 

biggins

biggins

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CORBIN is 5-5 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 4.29 and a WHIP of 1.166.
His team's record is 7-8 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-9. (-4.0 units)
 

biggins

biggins

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ZIMMERMANN is 0-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.845.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.3 units)
 

biggins

biggins

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TAILLON is 0-0 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.45 and a WHIP of 0.766.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.1 units)
 

biggins

biggins

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SENZATELA is 0-2 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.462.
His team's record is 2-3 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.4 units)
 

biggins

biggins

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WHEELER is 1-2 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 7.02 and a WHIP of 1.620.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.1 units)
 

biggins

biggins

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SKUBAL is 1-2 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 4.66 and a WHIP of 1.138.
His team's record is 2-4 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.2 units)
 

biggins

biggins

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OBER is 1-0 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 5.79 and a WHIP of 1.179.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)
 
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