What you need to know for Thursday's MLB Games

[biggins]

• Paul Blackburn (10% rostered in ESPN leagues) of the Oakland Athletics sports a 1.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP across his first two starts this season, fanning 10 and walking only one over 10 frames. There's the hope of continued success, thanks to an uptick in sinker velocity and a new pitch mix that has seen him rely more on his curveball and changeup, which are both generating whiffs. Blackburn is an intriguing streaming option against a Baltimore Orioles team that's striking out an MLB-worst 28.9% of the time.
• After being announced as the St. Louis Cardinals' fifth starter two weeks ago, Jordan Hicks (8% rostered) will finally make his first start of the season (and of his career) on Thursday against the Miami Marlins. For DFS and streaming purposes, it's best to take the wait-and-see approach with Hicks. Despite having enticing stuff, he wasn't fully stretched out this spring and topped out at 35 pitches in his last relief appearance, so he's unlikely to pitch deep into Thursday's contest.
• Are we witnessing a resurgence from Carlos Carrasco (58%)? After holding a 6.04 ERA over 12 starts last season and eventually undergoing surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow, the 35-year-old looks healthy again. Carrasco delivered a 0.84 ERA, 11.0 K/9, and 1.7 BB/9 over his first two starts, albeit against two weaker opponents (ARI and WAS). He'll face a much tougher test against the San Francisco Giants on Thursday, which makes him slightly riskier for DFS and streaming purposes, but he could be up to the task.
• The New York Mets offense has been rolling in the early going, ranking second in MLB with a 128 wRC+ and ranking third with an 11.3% walk rate. Even with the hot start, they still have plenty of cost-effective left-handed bats, including Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano, and Dominic Smith, to build a cheap stack against right-hander Anthony DeSclafani, who wasn't particularly sharp in his first two outings.

 

[biggins]

• Zach Davies of the Arizona Diamondbacks is one of the hurlers we want to attack on Thursday. He posted a 5.78 ERA across 32 starts in 2021, and he's on the same track this season with a 5.79 mark over his first two turns. The big bats on the Washington Nationals are already rostered, but leadoff man Cesar Hernandez (9%), Maikel Franco(6%), and Lane Thomas (2%) offer an easy way to get exposure to this favorable matchup.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Thanks Bigs

 

[biggins]

Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday​

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN's standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML:Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher's win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, we will list the bulk pitcher and indicate with an asterisk.

FPTS	TEAM	PITCHER	T	OPP	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	BR	K
10.9		Marco Gonzales	L	TEX	-130	8.0	37.3%	5.8	2.6	6.9	5.1
10.9		Anthony DeSclafani	R	@NYM	110	7.5	31.0%	5.4	2.1	6.2	4.9
10.5		Pablo Lopez	R	STL	-130	7.5	26.9%	5.0	1.9	5.9	5.3
10.3		Carlos Carrasco	R	SF	-130	7.5	24.6%	5.1	2.1	6.2	5.6
9.4		Kevin Gausman	R	@BOS	-115	8.5	29.1%	5.2	2.8	6.8	6.3
8.9		Jordan Hicks	R	@MIA	110	7.5	25.6%	4.9	2.2	6.3	4.9
8.9		Dylan Cease	R	@CLE	-140	8.0	28.5%	5.0	2.6	6.8	5.9
8.5		Michael Pineda	R	NYY	140	8.5	25.1%	5.3	2.7	6.6	4.9
8.4		Jordan Montgomery	L	@DET	-160	8.5

 

[biggins]

7.8		Zack Greinke	R	MIN	110	8.0	30.3%	5.4	3.0	7.1	4.7
7.7		Joe Ryan	R	@KC	-130	8.0	19.6%	4.7	2.4	6.0	4.7
7.5		Josh Rogers	L	ARI	-130	9.0	27.6%	4.9	2.5	6.6	4.2
7.5		Zach Plesac	R	CWS	120	8.0	26.6%	5.4	3.1	7.0	4.8
6.9		Taylor Hearn	L	@SEA	110	8.0	17.1%	4.5	2.2	6.0	4.4
6.8		Tanner Houck	R	TOR	-105	8.5	14.6%	4.2	2.2	5.7	4.7
6.7		Paul Blackburn	R	BAL	-125	7.0	15.1%	4.4	2.1	5.7	4.0
6.6		Mark Leiter Jr.	R	PIT	-160	8.5	16.1%	4.3	2.2	6.0	4.3
6.2		Tyler Wells	R	@OAK	105	7.0

 

[biggins]

Prop of the Day​

Zach Davies strikeouts: Over/Under 4.5 (-136/+106)​

PROJECTION

 

[biggins]

KEVIN GAUSMAN vs. BOSTON since 1997

GAUSMAN is 3-8 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.279. His team's record is 5-10 (-5.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 11-2. (+8.7 units)

 

[biggins]

HOUCK is 0-0 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 2.35 and a WHIP of 1.043.

His team's record is 2-0 (+2.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

 

[biggins]

GREINKE is 4-9 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 4.57 and a WHIP of 1.424.

His team's record is 6-16 (-12.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-11. (-3.6 units)

 

[Bubbles]

thanks biggins. do you have your personal pick?

 

[biggins]

BLACKBURN is 0-0 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.551.

His team's record is 2-0 (+2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.3 units)

 

[biggins]

DAVIES is 3-0 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of 1.276.

His team's record is 5-0 (+6.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+0.9 units)

 

[biggins]

LOPEZ is 0-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 2.63 and a WHIP of 0.732.

His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

 

[biggins]

WILSON is 1-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 7.30 and a WHIP of 1.946.

His team's record is 1-2 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-3. (-3.3 units)

 

[biggins]

HEARN is 0-2 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.778.

His team's record is 1-2 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

 

[biggins]

GONZALES is 8-6 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 3.64 and a WHIP of 1.149.

His team's record is 8-8 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-7. (+0.2 units)

 

[biggins]

All games at SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons

SEATTLE is 17-2 (+13.6 Units) against TEXAS over the last 3 seasons 11 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.2 Units)

 

[biggins]

• Paul Blackburn (10% rostered in ESPN leagues) of the Oakland Athletics sports a 1.80 ERA and 0.90 WHIP across his first two starts this season, fanning 10 and walking only one over 10 frames. There's the hope of continued success, thanks to an uptick in sinker velocity and a new pitch mix that has seen him rely more on his curveball and changeup, which are both generating whiffs. Blackburn is an intriguing streaming option against a Baltimore Orioles team that's striking out an MLB-worst 28.9% of the time.
• After being announced as the St. Louis Cardinals' fifth starter two weeks ago, Jordan Hicks (8% rostered) will finally make his first start of the season (and of his career) on Thursday against the Miami Marlins. For DFS and streaming purposes, it's best to take the wait-and-see approach with Hicks. Despite having enticing stuff, he wasn't fully stretched out this spring and topped out at 35 pitches in his last relief appearance, so he's unlikely to pitch deep into Thursday's contest.
• Are we witnessing a resurgence from Carlos Carrasco (58%)? After holding a 6.04 ERA over 12 starts last season and eventually undergoing surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow, the 35-year-old looks healthy again. Carrasco delivered a 0.84 ERA, 11.0 K/9, and 1.7 BB/9 over his first two starts, albeit against two weaker opponents (ARI and WAS). He'll face a much tougher test against the San Francisco Giants on Thursday, which makes him slightly riskier for DFS and streaming purposes, but he could be up to the task.
• The New York Mets offense has been rolling in the early going, ranking second in MLB with a 128 wRC+ and ranking third with an 11.3% walk rate. Even with the hot start, they still have plenty of cost-effective left-handed bats, including Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano, and Dominic Smith, to build a cheap stack against right-hander Anthony DeSclafani, who wasn't particularly sharp in his first two outings.

This guy nailed the Oakland A’s and NY Mets and he half heartily endorsed St Louis But via his write up on Cards l took FF under. I know this is past posting but l feel uncomfortable posting plays. It’s the fear of losing thing lol. Maybe as season gets deeper in to play I’ll have more confidence other posters tailing my plays.

 

[Enikk]

Hope you did well today on the diamond Biggins.