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What you need to know for Monday's MLB Games

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biggins

biggins

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  • Monday features the annual Patriots' Day game at Fenway Park with Rich Hill starting for the Boston Red Sox and Dylan Bundytaking the hill for the Minnesota Twins. Garrett Whitlock (46% rostered in ESPN leagues) piggybacked Hill in the southpaw's first start, throwing four frames to collect a win. Whitlock threw 2 1/3 innings on Saturday, so it's unclear if he'll be ready for another long outing on Monday. But in his current role, Whitlock is a better fantasy asset than most major league teams' third, fourth or fifth member of their rotation.
  • Early-season pitcher streaming is always a conundrum, balancing the lack of information driving decisions with a very low run-scoring environment. The league ERA entering Sunday was 3.90, with very little scoring in the early games. Runs are always down in April, but so far, the drop is extreme, so it makes sense to take advantage before scoring increases. Eric Lauer (7% rostered) doesn't rank high in Monday's rankings, but he's in play with a home tilt against the weak Pirates lineup.
  • One of the bigger surprises of the first week of action was Michael Lorenzen (10%). Lorenzen was a reliever for the Cincinnati Reds, while also dabbling in centerfield. The Los Angeles Angels viewed Lorenzen as a starter, and he looked the part in his debut, fanning seven Marlins in six frame with no walks. Monday's matchup is a tougher Houston Astros lineup, but so far, the Astros are one of the least productive offenses in the league, putting Lorenzen in play as a streamer and DFS play.
  • The slate's top pitching matchup is in Citi Field with Tylor Megill (75%) and the New York Mets hosting Alex Cobb (53%) and the San Francisco Giants. Megill's hot start has his rostership up 58%, so he's only available in a few 10-12 team leagues. Cobb can be picked in a few more and should be considered as a spot starter on a night where scoring should be low. Warning: The forecast is for rain, so be sure to check the conditions closer to game time, but if it looks like it will be played, betting the under could prove profitable.
  • The chalk DFS hitting plays will be in Coors Field, especially Philadelphia Phillies facing Chad Kuhl, though don't be afraid to use Colorado Rockies against Aaron Nola. An under-the-radar stack is the Oakland Athletics at home against the Baltimore Orioles with Spenser Watkins garnering another start with John Means on the IL. The Athletics offense has been surprisingly potent, with Sean Murphy (51%), Seth Brown (9%), Chad Pinder (2%) and Tony Kemp (5%) the chief targets.
 

biggins

biggins

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Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points, using ESPN's standard scoring system (5 points per win, minus-5 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. ML:Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. W%: Starting pitcher's win probability. For the projected stat line, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed, BR is baserunners allowed and K is strikeouts.

FPTSTEAMPITCHERTOPPMLO/UW%IPERBRK
14.5
i
Clayton KershawLATL-1908.040.7%5.72.05.86.2
13.0
i
Frankie MontasRBAL-1857.539.4%5.72.26.66.1
13.0
i
Shane BieberRCWS-1158.036.7%5.82.66.97.1
12.5
i
Sean ManaeaLCIN-1707.537.3%5.62.16.35.6
10.6
i
Alex CobbR@NYM+1056.531.0%5.32.06.55.1
10.4
i
Tylor MegillRSF-1256.527.3%5.22.26.15.4
10.0
i
Luis GarciaRLAA-1609.026.6%5.12.26.35.4
8.6
i
Kyle HendricksRTB+1258.032.4%5.62.97.34.9
8.4
i
Nick LodoloL@SD+1507.5
 

biggins

biggins

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biggins

biggins

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BUNDY is 3-9 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 5.67 and a WHIP of 1.580.
His team's record is 3-12 (-8.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 10-3. (+6.9 units)
 

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biggins

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KEUCHEL is 4-2 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.30 and a WHIP of 1.140.
His team's record is 7-5 (+1.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-4. (+2.7 units)
 

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biggins

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BIEBER is 5-2 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 2.55 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 8-4 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-6. (-0.6 units)
 

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biggins

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NOLA is 4-0 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.141.
His team's record is 5-1 (+2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+0.9 units)
 

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biggins

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KUHL is 2-0 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 2.00 and a WHIP of 0.889.
His team's record is 3-0 (+3.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)
 

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biggins

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KERSHAW is 7-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.09 and a WHIP of 0.966.
His team's record is 12-4 (+5.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-9. (-4.4 units)
 
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