What We Know About College Football's Top Teams After Week 5

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What we know about Michigan, Georgia, Texas after one month​

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Well that sure was something. Week 5 of the college football season didn't give us any major shake-ups -- none of the teams in the AP top nine lost, and only three top-20 teams fell (all to other ranked teams). But chaos and silliness lurked all day.

USC flirted with blowing a 27-point lead against Colorado. Georgia once again started slowly and barely managed to battle from behind to beat Auburn. Notre Dame looked ready to fall to Duke before an incredible 95-yard drive. And in both Oxford, Mississippi, and Orlando, Florida, college football gave us maximum silliness and fireworks.

And with that, we flip the calendar to October. It's become a bit of an annual tradition for me to take a "What's changed since the preseason?" look at the landscape once September has passed. With that in mind -- and with the acknowledgment that there is still plenty we don't know about how things are going to play out -- here are seven things I believe, based in part on Week 5 impressions, as we enter the middle third of the schedule.

 

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1. Michigan is the best team in the Big Ten (at the very least)​

If you want to keep the "They ain't played nobody" label slapped on Michigan's resume for the time being, I can't really stop you. Per SP+, the Wolverines have played the No. 112 schedule to date. They haven't played a top-60 team yet, and they somehow won't face a top-40 opponent until Week 11. Granted, the home stretch is rough -- at Penn State (13th in SP+) in Week 11, at Maryland (31st) in Week 12, Ohio State (second) in Week 13 -- but this back-loaded schedule is allowing Michigan to cruise.

If I've said it once, I've said it a million times: It's not who you play, it's how you play. We can learn something about a team every single Saturday, and here's what we've learned about the Wolverines through five cakey games:

First, they have the best defense of the Jim Harbaugh era. The bar is pretty high in that regard -- they've finished seventh or better in defensive SP+ in six of Harbaugh's eight seasons back in Ann Arbor -- but evidence is pointing in that direction. They're first in defensive SP+, first in success rate allowed, first in points allowed per drive, first in drive score percentage allowed (drives with a TD or field goal), seventh in three-and-out rate and, just for good measure, second in red zone touchdown rate allowed (not that they allow teams into the red zone).

In the first half of Saturday's 45-7 win at Nebraska, the Wolverines picked off a pass on Nebraska's second play, forced two punts and, in the one drive that NU actually moved the ball, they stuffed a fourth-and-1. The national average for my success rate measure (the percentage of time you gain 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second or 100% on third or fourth) is around 42%. Before garbage time, Nebraska's was 21%. The Huskers made a couple of chunk plays in the second half, but the game was already over.

Second, they flip to cruise control very quickly. Here's Michigan's scoring margin by quarter.

Q1: 42-7 (+35)
Q2: 58-6 (+52)
Q3: 55-0 (+55)
Q4: 17-17 (+0)


Star rusher Blake Corum has 24 carries in the first quarter, 20 in the second, 26 in the third and four in the fourth. The starters play for 45 minutes and tag out, the backups lose some battles, and opponents snare some backdoor covers. Michigan is 1-3-1 against the spread this season, which is often the sign of a wobbly team. But it's hard to make the case that there's anything actually wobbly here. The defense is great, quarterback J.J. McCarthy ranks first in Total QBR ... the Wolverines are flying, even if you adjust for their opponents.

 

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2. Georgia's slow starts will be costly at some point​

A sample of five games is a decent trend signifier in this sport, and trends certainly suggest Georgia's slow starts are a problem. Against a schedule similar to Michigan's - 104th overall, with two top-40ish opponents and three ranked 110th or worse - Georgia's per-quarter scoring margins are basically Michigan's in reverse.

Q1: 17-17 (+0)
Q2: 72-21 (+51)
Q3: 63-7 (+56)
Q4: 41-20 (+21)

UGA and Michigan have outscored opponents by the exact same margin in the second and third quarters, but considering the competition, the Dawgs have started games horribly. And they're taking much longer to put games away.

Snaps when the game is within 20 or fewer points: Michigan 175 (second fewest), Georgia 269 (37th fewest).

Snaps when the game is within 10 or fewer points: Michigan 122 (third fewest), Georgia 231 (43rd fewest).

Georgia has played two SEC games against opponents in the bottom half of the conference. Against South Carolina (41st in SP+) at home, the Dawgs trailed 14-3 at halftime. Against Auburn on Saturday, in their first road game of the season, they were down 10-0 after 13 minutes. It was hard to even pretend they were in legitimate danger -- they outscored the Gamecocks 21-0 in the second half and outscored Auburn 27-10 over the final 47 minutes -- but both games were far closer, and for far longer a period of time, than they had any reason to be.

Even if you're the vastly superior team, if your game is tied in the fourth quarter, as was the case in Auburn, it can take just one funky bounce to screw up your season. Georgia has had plenty of injury problems, but despite the easy schedule, the Dawgs are merely good in a bunch of categories a title contender is expected to be great in. Their offense is 19th in points per drive, and their defense is 10th. They're 10th in success rate and 17th in success rate allowed. In the red zone, they're 60th in touchdown rate and 103rd in TD rate allowed. A two-time defending national champion gets the benefit of the doubt, but this just hasn't been a genuinely elite team to date.


Of course, someone has to make Georgia pay. South Carolina and Auburn couldn't, and obviously Ball State (0-0 after one quarter, 45-3 final) and UAB (7-7 after 19 minutes, 49-21 final) came nowhere close. Of the Dawgs' seven remaining regular-season opponents, none rank higher than 15th in SP+, but five rank better than South Carolina or Auburn, starting with Kentucky (21st) on Saturday. At any moment, the Bulldogs could shift into gear and dominate, but if they continue to play like they have been, they aren't beating all five of those teams.

 

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3. Texas is the real deal​

For the past few weeks -- basically, from the run-up to their Week 2 game against Alabama through my Week 5 preview -- I've used basically the same premise over and over to talk about Texas.

Step 1: Point out that the Longhorns of recent seasons have made a habit of playing their best against their best opponents but couldn't quite get over the hump and beat many of them. Step 2: Point out that, against the less name-brand opponents, they frequently no-show and lose semiregularly as favorites.

We're going to put that to rest for the time being. Steve Sarkisian's Longhorns rendered Step 1 moot when they strolled into Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and played a nearly perfect fourth quarter to put away the Crimson Tide. And in a variety of recent tests, they've mostly put Step 2 to bed as well. They followed up the Bama win by struggling to get going in a rock fight against Wyoming, but they again played a brilliant fourth quarter to secure a 31-10 win, and in the past two weeks, they've beaten Baylor and Kansas by a combined 78-20. They were on top of Baylor from the start, and while Kansas gave them far more of a fight, the moment the Jayhawks went wobbly, they got knocked out.

Even with KU starting quarterback Jalon Daniels unexpectedly out with back spasms, the increasingly well-rounded Jayhawks were able to find just enough big plays to stay within one score, 20-14, late in the third quarter. But they failed on a doomed-from-the-start fourth-and-1 attempt from their 38* -- Jason Bean mishandled the exchange with his running back, who would have gotten blown up in the backfield regardless -- and within five plays it was 26-14.

Eleven plays later, it was 33-14. It ended 40-14. Quinn Ewers threw for 325 yards and a score, Adonai Mitchell caught 10 balls for 141 yards and Jonathon Brooks rushed 20 times for 217 yards and two touchdowns. The Longhorns rushed for 336 yards, threw for 325 and held the (admittedly short-handed) Jayhawks to 260.

Texas is playing far more like an elite team than a recent Texas team. I guess I have to find a new template. And with how Oklahoma has played in September -- the Sooners are unbeaten and up to 12th in the AP poll (and ninth in SP+) -- this is the biggest iteration of the Red River Rivalry we've had since at least 2019.


* Note to all the coaches going for it on fourth-and-1 with increasing frequency: I'm very happy for you, and I've waited for this moment for a while. But the national average for fourth-and-1 conversion rate is down to 66.5% (it was 68.7% in 2020 and 69.3% in 2021), and a lot of you are overthinking the playcalls. If you're not already deploying the tush push, maybe just try the tush push?

 

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4. Oregon is the Pac-12's best team ... for now​

Both SP+ and ESPN's FPI see the current national title race as far more of a crapshoot than we're used to, even this early in the season. The contenders can almost be broken into conference-based clusters.

• Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State: 28.4% combined chance to win the national title per SP+, 30.9% per the FPI

• Oklahoma and Texas: 13.8% per SP+, 30.3% per the FPI

• Oregon, Washington and USC: 14.9% per SP+, 15.2% per the FPI

• Georgia and Alabama: 14.2% per SP+, 14.8% per the FPI

• Florida State and Miami: 6.7% per SP+, 5.8% per the FPI

• Everyone else: 22.0% per SP+, 3.0% per the FPI

SP+ obviously sees a longer tail at play here, with Notre Dame and others still boasting a shot at something amazing, while the FPI is much higher on Texas and Oklahoma. But it has become increasingly clear that whoever can emerge from the Pac-12 battle royale will have a fighting chance at winning the whole thing.

With each passing week, I'm increasingly less clear on who I think that will be. Over the past couple of weeks, I was leaning toward Washington. Now I'm looking a little bit further south.

I certainly grew less confident in USC on Saturday, with general attention span and defense issues rearing their ugly head again. Like Oregon the week before, the Trojans bolted to a big early lead on Colorado, but unlike the Ducks, the Trojans lost their way after a while. They allowed the last seven points of the first half and the last 20 of the second, and after leading 41-14 with 21 minutes remaining in the game, they had to recover a late onside kick attempt to secure a 48-41 win. A week ago, they led an even shakier Arizona State team by only seven in the third quarter before winning 42-28.

Also Saturday, Washington wobbled for the first time this season. The Huskies had overachieved against SP+ projections in each of their first four games and took an early 21-7 lead over an Arizona team that was missing starting quarterback Jayden de Laura. After scoring touchdowns on each of their first three possessions, they managed just 10 points in their final six. And the defense allowed Wildcats backup Noah Fifita to find a nice rhythm -- he went 27-for-39 for 232 yards, 3 touchdowns, only 1 sack and 1 interception. Washington, too, had to recover a late onside kick to put the game to bed.

Oregon, on the other hand, rolled again. The Ducks got their tough test in Week 2 at Texas Tech, where they had to rally for a 38-30 win. They've now won four other games by a combined 220-29 after Saturday's 42-6 win at Stanford. They started slowly in Palo Alto and trailed 6-0 after 20 minutes with a pair of three-and-outs, but here are the rest of Oregon's drives: touchdown, touchdown, missed field goal, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, four-minute clock killer to end the game. Bo Nix threw four touchdowns and only five incompletions, Bucky Irving and Jordan James combined for 176 yards on 19 carries, and the Ducks' defense pitched a shutout after two early field goals. This was comprehensive, just as most of 2023 has been for them.

Recency has me leaning toward the Ducks, but wow, are these teams similar.

Overall SP+: Oregon sixth, Washington seventh, USC 10th

Offensive SP+: USC first, Washington second, Oregon third

Defensive SP+: Oregon 21st, Washington 30th, USC 52nd

2023-only SP+ (preseason projections removed): Washington second, Oregon fourth, USC 13th

Points per possession: Oregon first, USC fourth, Washington fifth

Success rate: Washington first, USC second, Oregon third

Points allowed per possession: Oregon ninth, Washington 40th, USC 56th

Success rate allowed: Oregon 24th, Washington 38th, USC 48th

Oregon appears to be the most balanced of the three teams -- translation: it's the most likely to play a little bit of defense -- and has trended beautifully since the trip to Lubbock, Texas. The Ducks might have moved into the favorite's seat ahead of what is just going to be an incredible round robin in the coming weeks.

Oct. 14: Oregon at Washington
Nov. 4: Washington at USC
Nov. 11: USC at Oregon


There are plenty of other tests for all three teams -- Oregon heads to Utah and hosts Washington State and Oregon State, Washington hosts Utah and Washington State, USC hosts Utah and UCLA and plays at Notre Dame -- but in a five-week span, we'll get head-to-heads between all three of these teams. That's really damn delightful.

 

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5. Luther Burden III is the best sophomore in the country​

Missouri's Eliah Drinkwitz pulled a coup in 2022, signing East St. Louis' Luther Burden III, the No. 5 overall player in the country, to headline a top-15 class. Burden got heavy usage as a freshman, but Drinkwitz struggled to figure out the proper role for his Deebo Samuel-esque skill set. He scored eight touchdowns and caught 45 passes (with 18 rushes) but averaged just 8.3 yards per catch.

It appears the Tigers have figured out what to do with Burden now.

With star slot man Dominic Lovett transferring to Georgia, Burden moved into the slot. And in new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore's attack, he has exploded. He has gained at least 96 receiving yards in every game, and projected over a 13-game schedule, he's on pace for 112 catches, 1,674 yards and 13 touchdowns. He's been quarterback Brady Cook's go-to guy, as responsible as anyone for Mizzou's offensive eruption over the last three games. Since a stolid 23-19 win over Middle Tennessee State in Week 2, the Tigers have beaten Kansas State, Memphis and Vanderbilt to move to 5-0 for the first time since 2013, and Cook has completed 73% of his passes for 364 yards per game. Burden in those three games: 28 catches for 431 yards and 3 scores. The Tigers host LSU on Saturday, and they're now in fierce competition with Tennessee and Kentucky for the role of Georgia's Biggest Challenger in the SEC East.


As for the "best sophomore" label ... well ... I guess North Carolina's Drake Maye probably still has those honors. So we'll say Burden is the best true sophomore. Definitely the best sophomore whose face is on a bag of chips in Missouri grocery stores.

 

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6. James Madison is both lucky and good (and WVU might be just lucky)​

In a given year, quite a few teams start out 5-0 or close to it. Barely any make it to 10-0 or greater. A bright start is to be celebrated, but we generally have a pretty good read on whose might start to fizzle out around this time.

There are a couple of different ways I generally go about looking at good or bad fortune. The first is through what I call postgame win expectancy. Using the stats that eventually feed into SP+, postgame win expectancy takes the stats from a given game, tosses them into the air and declares, "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time." Remember that funky Minnesota-Nebraska game from Week 1, when the Huskers outgained the Golden Gophers by 1.7 yards per play (5.3 to 3.6) and won the field position but suffered two dreadful late turnovers and fell via a last-second field goal? Nebraska's postgame win expectancy was 96%, highest of the season (thus far) in a losing effort.

Postgame win expectancy can tell us interesting things about individual games, but if you add up all of your team's percentages, you get an interesting look into what a team's record should be at a given stage in the season.

James Madison, for instance, has enjoyed postgame win expectancies of 100% (vs. Bucknell), 93% (vs. Utah State), 86% (vs. South Alabama), 54% (vs. Virginia) and 52% (vs. Troy). Add those percentages up, and you get 3.9 wins on average instead of the five the Dukes have pulled off. It was very unlikely that James Madison would beat both Virginia and Troy given the way it played in those games. The Dukes are probably due some comeuppance moving forward -- especially with a tight Sun Belt schedule that features five remaining games with a projected win probability between 45% and 68%.

Curt Cignetti's Dukes are an incredible story, 5-0 for the second straight year since their jump from FCS, and they would be a Sun Belt favorite if they were eligible to win the conference title. But they're unlikely to remain unbeaten much longer.

They aren't the leaders in the overachievement category, however.

Teams with the largest (positive) difference between their win total and second-order wins: Central Michigan (3-2, +1.8 wins), Wyoming (4-1, +1.2), James Madison (5-0, +1.1), Utah (4-1, +1.0), West Virginia (4-1, +1.0).

West Virginia has won four straight since a season-opening loss to Penn State, but the Mountaineers' postgame win expectancy against Pitt (70%), Texas Tech (58%) and TCU (69%) suggests they were pretty lucky to win all three games. Still, their odds of reaching bowl eligibility and, in theory, saving Neal Brown's job, are quite a bit stronger than they were a month ago. They have five more relative tossups on the schedule; we'll see how long Lady Luck smiles upon them.

JMU and West Virginia also are among quite a few teams that have gotten the better of close games so far this season.

Teams at least two games over .500 in one-score finishes

4-0: JMU

3-0: CMU, Louisville, Missouri, Marshall

2-0: BYU, Florida State, Fresno State, Illinois, Jacksonville State, Rice, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming

3-1: Florida International

We'll see what comeuppance awaits these teams, though if you're a fan of Missouri (2-4 in one-score games last season) or Illinois (1-4), you might say this is the comeuppance.

Another way of looking at good fortune: turnovers luck. Every team's fumble recovery rate regresses toward zero over time, but here are the teams that have recovered quite a few more than expected so far.

Teams with the most positive fumble recovery margin to date (recoveries vs. expected recoveries if you fell on half of all fumbles): Arkansas +4.5 (80% recovery rate), Nevada +4 (68%), Penn State +3.5 (73%), Maryland +3 (80%), San Jose State +3 (80%), Florida Atlantic +3 (75%), Louisville +3 (75%), Utah +3 (71%)


Arkansas and Nevada are a combined 2-8 (0-3 in one-score games) this season. Safe to say, they have not taken proper advantage of good fumbles luck.

 

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7. The college football gods hate Akron​

If someone is lucky; someone else is unlucky. It's just the way things go. Here are the same numbers above, but on the opposite end of the spectrum.

Teams with the largest (negative) difference between their win total and second-order wins: Akron (1-4, -2.0 wins), New Mexico State (2-3, -1.4), Texas Tech (2-3, -1.4), Virginia (0-5, -1.2), UCF (3-2, -1.1).

Akron has lost back-to-back overtime games; Joe Moorhead's Zips followed up last week's gut-wrenching loss to Indiana (which featured a missed 32-yard field goal at the end of regulation) with a gut-wrenching loss to Buffalo (which featured a blocked field goal in OT). Their postgame win expectancy in these two games: 69% and 87%, respectively. There was a 60% chance the Zips would win both and only a 4% chance they'd lose both. They lost both. And now, instead of having bowl eligibility odds of around 64% in Moorhead's second season, they're at only 11%.

Teams at least two games under .500 in one-score finishes

0-3: Texas Tech, Virginia

0-2: Arkansas, Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee State, South Alabama, Stanford, TCU, UConn, UMass, Virginia Tech

1-3: Akron, Northern Illinois

The god of close games smites all of us eventually. Texas Tech and TCU went a combined 10-1 in one-score finishes in 2022 on their way to rousing first-year success in Sonny Dykes' and Joey Maguire's respective first seasons in charge; in 2023, they're 0-5. They're both about as good as they were projected to be -- TCU is a little worse (projected 22nd in SP+, currently 33rd), and Tech's exactly on pace (projected 32nd, currently 32nd). But they're only a combined 5-5 overall.

Teams with the most negative fumble recovery margin to date: Arizona State -4 (21% recovery rate), Texas A&M -3.5 (29%), Notre Dame -3.5 (29%), Kansas -3 (31%), Arkansas State -2.5 (0%), Rutgers -2.5 (14%), West Virginia -2.5 (14%), James Madison -2.5 (27%), Florida -2.5 (31%), Illinois -2.5 (31%)

Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Kansas, Rutgers, WVU and JMU have all enjoyed zero- or one-loss starts, which is impressive enough on its own and doubly so considering the bad bounces they've received to date.

 

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Iowa points watch​

Iowa offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz needs the Hawkeyes to score at least 325 points this year to reach his full incentive bonus. After Saturday's 26-point outing against Michigan State, they have scored 111 points through five games. They need to average 26.8 points the rest of the way to win the Drive to 325.


What's that, you say? Iowa's 26 points included a punt return touchdown and a late field goal drive that started at the MSU 30 and actually lost yardage? Well, Iowa so desperately wants Ferentz to clear this bar that all points count toward his total. And even with the special teams score, the Hawkeyes still rank just 101st in scoring (22.2 points per game). Of course, they're also 4-1.

 

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Who won the Heisman this week?​

I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?

Here is this week's strangely SEC-heavy Heisman top 10:

1. Brock Bowers, Georgia (eight catches for 157 yards and a touchdown against Auburn)

2. Jayden Daniels, LSU (27-for-36 for 414 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 99 rushing yards and a touchdown, against Ole Miss)

3. Ray Davis, Kentucky (26 carries for 280 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus a receiving touchdown, against Florida)

4. Caleb Williams, USC (30-for-40 for 403 yards, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception against Colorado)

5. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (26-for-39 for 389 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 50 rushing yards and a touchdown, against LSU)

6. Jonathon Brooks, Texas (21 carries for 218 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 23 receiving yards, against Kansas)

7. Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma (26-for-39 for 366 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT, plus 37 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns, against Iowa State)

8. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (30-for-45 for 371 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, plus 50 rushing yards and a touchdown, against USC)

9. Brady Cook, Missouri (33-for-41 for 395 yards and 4 touchdowns against Vanderbilt)

10. Sam Hartman, Notre Dame (15-for-30 for 222 yards, plus 23 rushing yards and an amazing last-minute touchdown drive, against Duke)

Honorable mention:

• Kadarius Calloway, Old Dominion (11 carries for 236 yards and 3 touchdowns against Marshall)

• Oscar Chapman, Auburn (five punts, three downed inside the 20 and a 51.2 average with a 71-yard long against Georgia)

• Howard Cross III, Notre Dame (3 tackles for loss, 1 sack and 2 forced fumbles against Duke)

• Zac Larrier, Air Force (6-for-7 for 189 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 103 rushing yards, against San Diego State)

• Jaylen Raynor, Arkansas State (20-for-25 for 383 yards and 6 touchdowns, plus 35 rushing yards, against UMass)

• Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland (24-for-34 for 352 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown, against Indiana)

Week 5 once again saw an incredible set of quarterback performances, but we've got to give this week's award to a tight end. Brock Bowers absolutely saved the day for his disappointing, top-ranked Dawgs. After catching just two of six passes thrown his way for 9 yards in the first half, he caught six of eight for 148 in the second.

He also had a one-handed grab that was disallowed because of a penalty.

Just ridiculous work from the best tight end in the country.

Through five weeks, here are your points leaders:

1. Michael Penix Jr., Washington (27 points)
2. Caleb Williams, USC (21 points)
3. Jayden Daniels, LSU (18 points)
T-4. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (16 points)
T-4. Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma (16 points)
T-6. Brock Bowers, Georgia (10 points)
T-6. Travis Hunter, Colorado (10 points)
T-6. Jack Plummer, Louisville (10 points)
T-6. Tyler Van Dyke, Miami (10 points)
T-10. Jordan Travis, Florida State (9 points)
T-10. Cameron Ward, Washington State (9 points)


Penix was good against an Arizona team dedicated to preventing big plays, but his stats didn't necessarily stand out compared to others', and it allowed Williams, the defending Heisman winner, to close the gap a bit. Penix wins the vaunted September Heisman, but he's got plenty of work to do to take the real trophy away from USC's star.