What are the "Important" Factors you consider when capping a CBB game?

[Tanko]

I'm curious what BMR CBB cappers think.
What do you consider some of the most important factors when capping a CBB game?
Lets skip the obvious one: Injuries.

Here are examples of a few (not all-inclusive and not in any specific order)

> Raw Stats (i.e. 4 Factors- compare rebounding, shooting efficiency, tempo, FTs, etc....)
> H/A ATS record (are they a homer or better on the road)
> Recent overall W/L trend (momentum?)
> Player Matchups (an advantage to manipulate)
> Pts scored/Pts Allowed

Rank the ones you think are most important and/or add to the list...
If you think stats are the most leveraging, list a couple of stats, in order, you use to pick a side.

 

[Tanko]

Forgot a couple that might be considered.

Strength of Schedule
Travel (i.e. like Hawaii games).

 

[BMR Genie]

Good list, Tank.

How about monitoring the line movement? Can you consider that an external factor that could also affect the game result?

 

[LT Profits]

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I'm curious what BMR CBB cappers think.
What do you consider some of the most important factors when capping a CBB game?
Lets skip the obvious one: Injuries.

Here are examples of a few (not all-inclusive and not in any specific order)

> Raw Stats (i.e. 4 Factors- compare rebounding, shooting efficiency, tempo, FTs, etc....)
> H/A ATS record (are they a homer or better on the road)
> Recent overall W/L trend (momentum?)
> Player Matchups (an advantage to manipulate)
> Pts scored/Pts Allowed

Rank the ones you think are most important and/or add to the list...
If you think stats are the most leveraging, list a couple of stats, in order, you use to pick a side.

I live off the 4-Factors from Kenpom, especially when component is "green" offense vs. "red" defense or visa verca

 

[Tanko]

+

I live off the 4-Factors from Kenpom, especially when component is "green" offense vs. "red" defense or visa verca

Thanks for replying.

I thought that's what you might do based on your writeups.
That's my first look for any game as well.

• If it makes it past that cut, I do a quick look at adj-eff margin to compare it to the spread while factoring in HCA. Not a deal breaker if its tight but, if there is a nice delta, we keep evaluating the game.
• Then I look at recent momentum W/L taking into account the strength of their opponents. Are they beating weaker/stronger teams recently or not? Often this does not provide a clear answer.
• H/A ATS record. This helps indicate if the public is weighting one team's good/bad performance at home/road too much and moving the lines too far.
• Then compare how the teams have played this season vs similar tempo and off/def- efficiency teams.
• A few more checks but, after that we bet if it looks good.

 

[Tanko]

+

I live off the 4-Factors from Kenpom, especially when component is "green" offense vs. "red" defense or visa verca

BTW, thats one of the reasons I like your writeups so much is we share a similar analysis process.

 

[Tanko]

Good list, Tank.

How about monitoring the line movement? Can you consider that an external factor that could also affect the game result?

I know quite a few cappers monitor lines looking for "sharp" money.
Carolinakid was a "steam playing" madman. RIP

 

[Tanko]

@LT Profits do you ever limit your game search to "larger conferences" or "better team"?

What I mean by that is do you go through the games and as you get down the list, you just say I'm skipping the rest because they are such bad teams (team #258 vs team #299 on Kenpom). I've not done a lot of statistical anaysis on the data but from what I've seen, these teams are just so inconsistent, regardless of their historical overall stats, trying to find an edge is almost impossible.

 

[jjgold]

Only one thing

Home team

Maybe a key injury to a top player unlike nba

 

[JDS]

I have a whole list of shit I consider in this particular market, but I'll keep my thoughts to myself until I get answers from staff about my very public current issue.

 

[LT Profits]

@LT Profits do you ever limit your game search to "larger conferences" or "better team"?

What I mean by that is do you go through the games and as you get down the list, you just say I'm skipping the rest because they are such bad teams (team #258 vs team #299 on Kenpom). I've not done a lot of statistical anaysis on the data but from what I've seen, these teams are just so inconsistent, regardless of their historical overall stats, trying to find an edge is almost impossible.

One word, NO I treat every game the same.

 

[Tanko]

One word, NO I treat every game the same.

Respect to you sir.

 

[KVB]

Strength of Schedule

On thing to consider is the strength of schedule of the strength of schedule. If Team A is facing Team B and you notice that Team B has a good record and stats against it's competition, and that compeition is strong, so you have a strong strength of schedule, you might want to look into the teams on Team B's schedule a the time they played Team B.

Perhaps they've all been beating up on weak teams and they only look like a tough SOS at the moment because of that fact.

Obviously, early season can produce more errors than later, when more games are under the belt.

This is true for all sports, but you can then test the SOS of the SOS of the SOS and just keep falling down the rabbit hole, lol.

Probably fine to just stop with the SOS of the SOS.

Something to think about.

 

[KVB]

Personally, I search for the mathematical EV, have been market making on exchanges to get more EV, but never enter the market without analyizing the market structure and the flow of the money through the market.

My office spends far more time on producing moneyflow parlays and watching the action as it unfolds. With the exchanges offering a low vig LIVE betting, I can, with my unique skills and experience, not only take advantage of pregame notions, but I can take full advantage of the far more beatable LIVE markets.

We are salivating for the Saturday before the Super Bowl and then March Madness. In my most recent market analyisis, I expect near term, this Saturday, to be full of trials and tribulations, a part of the natural give and take of the markets, so that the following Super Bowl Saturday can really produce EV and results.

"It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it. It is only after you accept what they bring that you can truly appreciate how they bring it."

--KVB

 

[Tanko]

On thing to consider is the strength of schedule of the strength of schedule. If Team A is facing Team B and you notice that Team B has a good record and stats against it's competition, and that compeition is strong, so you have a strong strength of schedule, you might want to look into the teams on Team B's schedule a the time they played Team B.

Perhaps they've all been beating up on weak teams and they only look like a tough SOS at the moment because of that fact.

Obviously, early season can produce more errors than later, when more games are under the belt.

This is true for all sports, but you can then test the SOS of the SOS of the SOS and just keep falling down the rabbit hole, lol.

Probably fine to just stop with the SOS of the SOS.

Something to think about.

Great thought.

 

[BigJay]

Carolinakid was a "steam playing" madman. RIP

That boy did love him some steam.