What a head fake on OKL. ST -2.5 line by the book...

[pete0]

as a 7-2 team
vs a 4-5 squad

2.5 pts? really ? who cares about 2 fkking points, games r not decided by that margin mostly anwyays...
we all know that..
any1 betting such low no.s should know take the -2.5 or take dog ML, when choosing.

as thats hardly a diff. if ur initial edge is perceived THAT large to even take a side in such a situation (-/+2.5)

end. result : 38-3 okl st. loses

-----------------------

I had Okl st. myself.

NOW, i'll give u guys a WRITE UP as 2 WHY i simply chose just this 1 all day from the slate, so far...

One of my system play is to take unranked team as a fav (at home)
in this situation, OKL. st was the ranked team on the road facing an unranked team. & were only -2.5

so,

1. did books know to never get to 3 ? & to collect a pricier -2.5 / MLs from public ?
2. was OKL. st a bigger market(population wisehomers) / trendier team than UCF ? or
3. Do write ups not matter ??


maybe i misjudged no. 2 in my system play or the line itself,
& why did @KVB not pick up UCF on his UPSET Alert ?

38-3, predictive/nonpredictive , is way too much of a deviation from a mere 2.5 pt line... thats literally a pk line. 50/50 probability.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Actually it's currently 45-3

UCF putting it on their azz

 

[jjgold]

Books always know what’s going on

trap game

 

[KVB]

1. did books know to never get to 3 ? & to collect a pricier -2.5 / MLs from public ?
2. was OKL. st a bigger market(population wisehomers) / trendier team than UCF ?


maybe i misjudged no. 2 in my system play or the line itself,
& why did @KVB not pick up UCF on his UPSET Alert ?

I usually don't past post Forecasts but the Stacking percentages Forecast had UCF winning the game with 31 points to Ok State's 28 points.

The non predictive public gauge had OK State winning 34-28.

These forecasts alone should help explain the line. Yes, the public did bet it up from an open of -1 in many houses it even hit 3 before coming back down.

FD NJ opened with 3.5 and it was quickly bet down. The money and tickets on this game were closer to even than you might think with some of the sharper money going to UCF, offsetting the public Ok St bets. That market was likely sharp led with the limit on that +3, which kept the line at +2.5.

The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket focuses on road teams. It's with road teams and dogs that we continue to find the best NCAAF edges.

But I did pick up on the UPSET in this game. The KVB ATS/ML fund had UCF today. I don't post that Fund anymore. That fund also had Kentucky, Wake, Arizona, and Vtech, Ttech. That Fund was a mixed bag today.

 

[rdalert447]

I plan on declaring UCF the 2023 Big 12 Champs of this win. Hang the banner right next to the 2017 Natty.