Week 8 college football best bets

[Wagerallsports]

Week 8 college football best bets: Notre Dame has edge vs. USC​

ESPN PLUS $ MATERIAL

The college football slate lacks a marquee ranked matchup, but it does feature four games with an unranked team favored over a ranked school. The most notable is Chip Kelly's UCLA Bruins as 2-point home favorites over No. 10 Oregon, where Kelly spent nearly a decade and flirted with national championships.

"Rankings mean nothing to me and to anyone who follows the sport and takes it seriously, but they do mean a lot to fans and players," professional bettor Ron Boyles told ESPN, sharing that he usually singles out these situations in college basketball but does like the college football angle too, if other variables line up. "When you come into someone's building with that number next to your name, believe me, it gets the attention of the home crowd and home players. You're getting a team that's going to be more energized and ready to go."

While the Ducks are 5-1, they have only covered one game. That lone cover was actually their most impressive performance, winning outright as 15-point underdogs at No. 5 Ohio State. That victory, one loss and a Pac-12 title will get Oregon into the College Football Playoff. However, another regular season loss could cost the Ducks that berth.

---

Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (19-18 overall, 3-2 last week), Bill Connelly (18-17, 1-4), Tyler Fulghum (8-5, 3-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (15-13, 4-0) and David M. Hale (9-9, 0-2) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.

Here are their best bets for Week 8 of the college football season.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).

Thursday's best bet​

Tulane Green Wave at No. 21 SMU Mustangs (-13.5, 70.5), 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN​

Fortenbaugh: Talk about two teams headed in opposite directions. Undefeated SMU has been a freight train this season, covering the number in four of six contests while outscoring the opposition by an average of 18.5 points per game. On the other sideline stands aTulane squad that has dropped four straight by an average of 22 points per game. Styles make fights, and in this fight Thursday night, the Mustangs boast the country's 11th-ranked scoring offense and 14th-ranked passing attack while the Green Wave rank 128th in scoring defense and 119th in pass defense.

Pick: SMU -13.5

Connelly: Let's put it this way ... SP+ really doesn't like UConn. It projected the Huskies to lose to Yale by nine points last week, after all. So when it projects them to merely lose to MTSU by 9.1 on average, as it has this week, I listen. From a statistical standpoint, MTSU has been pretty fortunate in its last two games -- the Blue Raiders probably should have lost to Marshall and should have lost by well more than 28 to Liberty -- and we have to grant that, as low as this bar is, UConn has improved over the last month. Let's see if the Huskies can keep that going.

Pick: UConn +15.5

Colorado State Rams (-3.5, 58.5) at Utah State Aggies, 9:30 p.m. ET​

Connelly: Trends are often difficult to reliably spot in this small-sample sport, but it feels safe to say these teams are quickly trending in different directions. Since a miserable 0-2 start with losses to South Dakota State and Vanderbilt, CSU has won three of four, pummeling three Group of Five opponents by an average score of 30-9 and giving Iowa fits for most of 60 minutes in Iowa City. Meanwhile, since starting 3-0 with upset wins at Washington State and Air Force, Utah State has lost to Boise State and BYU by a combined 61-23 (stats suggested each game could have been even more lopsided) and needed a late comeback to beat winless UNLV. SP+ is designed to react slowly to trends but still has the Rams favored by a more comfortable 6.6 points in this one.

Pick: CSU -3.5

 

[Wagerallsports]

Saturday's best bets​

No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners (-38.5, 67.5) at Kansas Jayhawks, Noon ET on ESPN​

Fulghum: Anyone who reads this column knows that directly fading Kansas football has been about as rock solid as it gets. The Jayhawks are 0-6 ATS and I will continue to fade them all season long, regardless of opponent and spread. It just so happens this week they play a rejuvenated Oklahoma team that is vying for a spot in the College Football Playoff behind QB Caleb Williams. Boomer Sooner.

Pick: Oklahoma -38.5

Kent State Golden Flashes (-5.5, 66.5) at Ohio Bobcats, 1 p.m. ET on​

Fortenbaugh: This is a significant amount of points to lay on the road for a Golden Flashes program that is 0-4 away from home this season, not to mention the fact that Kent State's three wins on the year have come against FCS Virginia Military Institute as well as Buffalo and Bowling Green, who are a combined 5-9 on the season. Ohio's ability to run the ball will be the difference in this one, as the Bobcats rank 20th in the country in rushing and eighth in yards per rushing attempt, while Kent State ranks 116th in run defense. Take note that Ohio is 15-5 against the spread in its last 20 games as an underdog.

Pick: Ohio +5.5

No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (-7, 47), 3:30 p.m. ET​

Hale: This is strictly a belief that the underlying metrics tell us more than the win-loss record does. Oklahoma State is undefeated, but its average scoring differential is the third-lowest by a 6-0 team in the AP poll era. Iowa State has two losses but ranks ninth in FPI, is in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and is 12th in SP+. The Cowboys, by comparison, are 28th in FPI, 66th in offensive efficiency and 32nd in SP+. FPI has the Cyclones by 11. Oklahoma State has found a knack for keeping things closer than expected, but I'm still happy to lay the points here and bet the ranks of the undefeated get slimmed a bit more in Week 8.

Pick: Iowa State -7

 

[Wagerallsports]

No. 10 Oregon Ducks at UCLA Bruins (-2, 60), 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC​

Fortenbaugh: Two elite rushing attacks, two comparable defenses. The difference in this one will be the play at quarterback, which means my money is on UCLA. Dorian Thompson-Robinson continues to show growth while protecting the football and making good decisions down the field. Oregon's Anthony Brown, who has been more than serviceable this season, is completing just 59% of his passes on the year, which leaves a lot to be desired. With two evenly matched teams that boast similar styles of play, UCLA's edge at quarterback is enough for me to lay the two points.

Pick: UCLA -2


Hale: Oregon has lost much of its luster since upending Ohio State in Columbus without Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Ducks blew a late lead and lost to Stanford, then looked utterly listless last week in a 24-17 win over Cal. Brown has been mediocre, C.J. Verdel is out for the season, and it's just tough to get too excited about a Ducks team that looked poised for a playoff run a month ago. UCLA isn't much better. Remember when the Bruins knocked off LSU and we assumed the Pac-12 had two real contenders this season? Losses to Fresno State and Arizona State let the air out of that balloon. So, the Pac-12 is what it always is -- a collection of solid but unspectacular teams ready to disappoint at a moment's notice. Right?

The answer is ... maybe. We're not ready to sell our Oregon stock just yet. The Stanford game feels like a fluke in the way a strange series of events upended the Ducks late, and while the offense isn't likely as explosive as it looked against Ohio State in September, the defense is probably better than it has played at any point so far this year. The battle here between Oregon's defensive front and a UCLA team allowing pressure just 18.5% of the time (fifth-best nationally) is the focal point, and we're betting the Ducks' D finds a way to rattle Thompson-Robinson enough to give their offense a shot. FPI has the Ducks as a small favorite in this one, and that's a perception we share. We're happy to take the points and back Oregon's resurgence into the playoff discussion.

Pick: Oregon +2

LSU Tigers at No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels (-9, 76), 3:30 p.m. ET​

Connelly: I love a good 76-point game as much as the next person, but this one feels a little bit aggressive. Only two of six Ole Miss games and one of seven LSU games have topped 76 points, and SP+ projects something closer to 66. Throw in any sort of adjustment for the fact that, per Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral might be either out or limited and that can only lower that total by a bit.

Pick: Under 76

Clemson Tigers at No. 23 Pittsburgh Panthers (-3, 48), 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN​

Fulghum: It is not shocking at all to see that the Kansas Jayhawks are a winless ATS program. That's to be expected. What is thoroughly shocking, however, is to see the fall from grace for Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers. Clemson is also winless ATS this season at 0-6. Pitt, on the other hand, is a sterling 5-1 ATS this season thanks to a passing attack triggered by QB Kenny Pickett.

Pick: Pitt -3

Fortenbaugh: This Saturday will mark the first time since the 2020 National Championship game against LSU that Clemson will find itself in the underdog role. For those scoring at home, that was 19 games ago for the Tigers. To borrow a phrase from Wall Street, this is where we "buy the dip." Clemson is 0-6 ATS this season and can't move the ball with any type of consistency, which is why the betting public has jumped ship. But keep in mind the following: covering as a favorite with an anemic offense is a hell of a lot more challenging than covering as an underdog. And this underdog just so happens to rank fourth in the country in scoring defense.

Pick: Clemson +3.5 or better

 

[Wagerallsports]

Colorado Buffaloes at California Golden Bears (-9, 43), 3:30 p.m. ET​

Kezirian: Colorado looked solid last week, smacking Arizona 34-0 and earning its first win over an FBS school. Everything was working in CU's favor. The Buffs were coming off a bye, playing at home in the altitude and facing a winless Arizona team. This is a much different situation. Although the Bears are winless against FBS schools, they are rightfully favored by two scores for a reason. They have a respectable defense, and the offense has its moments. Colorado is pretty weak, and I expect Cal to be ready to rock and get that first win in convincing fashion. This is by far the worst FBS opponent Cal has faced all season.

Pick: Cal -9

Buffalo Bulls (-11, 57) at Akron Zips, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+​

Hale: My favorite bets often involve two bad teams in which one of those bad teams is much, much worse than the other. The lines tend to reflect a public perception that both teams stink, but when it comes to distinguishing degrees of ineptitude, the public does a pretty bad job of it.

Indeed, with this game, FPI projects Buffalo by close to 17 points, but the line here is just 11. There's perhaps some lingering wariness of fading Akron after the Zips surprised bad-game bettors by throttling Bowling Green, or perhaps some worries because Buffalo seems to only play close games. We're not concerned with either of those details. Akron is still the team that was blown out by Temple, Ohio and Miami (Ohio). Buffalo is still the team that came close to knocking off Coastal Carolina and Western Michigan. Buffalo is 12-5 against the spread in its last 17 as the favorite. Aron is 4-18 as an underdog the past three seasons.

Don't overthink this one. There's bad (Buffalo), and there's downright terrible (Akron).

Pick: Buffalo -11

Tennessee Volunteers at No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN​

Fulghum: After the disappointing loss to Texas A&M, Alabama bounced back last week to embarrass Mississippi State 49-9. Bama is vastly superior to Tennessee and is now incentivized to embarrass SEC competition a little more due to the one loss on the docket. So far this season the Crimson Tide have outscored their opponents in the first half by a cumulative score of 180-49; that's an average first half margin of +18.7 points.

Pick: Alabama first half -14

Nevada Wolf Pack at Fresno State Bulldogs (-3, 65), 7 p.m. ET​

Connelly: I really like Fresno State. The Bulldogs fought both Oregon (narrow loss) and UCLA (narrow win) to toss-up games in September, and while there might be reason to worry about their offense at the moment -- since scoring 40 on UCLA, they've averaged just 26 points per game against UNLV, Hawaii and Wyoming -- the Bulldogs' defense is the strongest unit in this game. They're allowing just 23 yards per drive (10th in FBS) and 1.4 points per drive (15th), and they're pretty well suited to do damage against a pretty all-or-nothing Nevada offense. Throw in the fact that Nevada's super shaky run defense might not be able to take full advantage of Fresno's offensive regression and you've got a recipe for a Bulldogs win. SP+ projects a 9.4-point advantage for Fresno, and that sounds good to me.

Pick: Fresno State -3

No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (-20, 60) at Indiana Hoosiers, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC​

Kezirian: The Buckeyes are starting to hit their stride, winning their last three games by a combined 140 points. While Indiana should be a bit tougher of an opponent than Rutgers or Maryland, I am not convinced they are by much. The Hoosiers have already replaced their QB, and this is a giant talent mismatch. Buckeyes QB C.J. Stroud has thrown five TDs in each of his past two games, and the freshman seems to have found a rhythm. Ohio State is off a bye, but I expect the Buckeyes to keep it rolling.

Pick: Ohio State -20

USC Trojans at No. 13 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-7, 57.5), 7:30 p.m. ET​

Connelly: It's getting harder and harder to find disagreement between the lines and SP+ projections, but there's a decent amount of cushion here. SP+ projects the Irish to have something closer to a 10.6-point advantage, and while the Notre Dame offense remains pretty banged up in the trenches, USC really hasn't given any sign that it's capable of taking advantage of that. The Trojans have fallen from 17th to 42nd in SP+ over their last three games, and while a big rivalry game might wake them up a bit, Notre Dame probably has enough to win this one by more than a touchdown.

Pick: Notre Dame -7