Week 3 NFL underdog best bets: Lions cover again, target Cowboys on Monday night
As we stare at another full slate of games, we provide our NFL Week 3 underdog picks for the coming weekend.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, 8:15 p.m. ET, Thursday
Pittsburgh has dominated this AFC North rivalry with 38-9-1 straight up and 25-20-3 against the spread (ATS) advantages since the Browns returned to the league in 1999.Of course, much of that was with Ben Roethlisberger at the helm while now, it’s the underwhelming Mitch Trubisky.
At the same time, is Jacoby Brissett, an out-of-sorts defense, and the home-field edge really worth a 4.5-point difference here? We say no.
If the Steelers can keep Cleveland’s league-leading rushing attack from running wild, they should at least be able to stay within a field goal against a defense that allowed a combined 55 points to the Panthers and Jets.
Pick: Steelers +4.5 or higher (-110)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. ET, Sunday
We keep bringing up the Lions’ 13-6 ATS record (second best in the league) since coach Dan Campbell took over in 2021 because, well, they keep covering.
Detroit is 2-0 against the number this season, and now it’s a six-point road underdog Sunday in the Twin Cities.
Last season, the Vikings were 10 and seven-point favorites, respectively, in their two games against the Lions but they had to settle for a split: A 19-17 home win and 29-27 road loss. Those are two of the Lions’ 13 ATS wins.
The Detroit defense — second worst in the league in allowing an average of 32.5 points so far — certainly is worrisome going up against Justin Jefferson and Co.
But Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and a Lions’ offense averaging 35.5 points (tied for second best in the league) has been one of the league’s early-season surprises so far. That should be enough to keep things close and notch another cover Sunday.
Pick: Lions +6 or more (-110)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, 8:15 p.m. ET, Monday
There’s real, live gridiron excitement in the Big Apple as Big Blue is off to its first 2-0 start since 2016.
But now comes a tougher test against a 1-1 Cowboys team that has owned this divisional series of late, winning nine of the last 10 meetings and covering eight of them.
We certainly envision a much closer game Monday than the Cowboys’ 44-20 and 21-6 blowout wins last season — especially with backup QB Cooper Rush playing in place of the injured Dak Prescott.
But early Defensive Player of the Year front-runner Micah Parsons is a big hurdle for Daniel Jones and a Giants offense that has struggled to move the ball with any consistency and has scored a modest four TDs so far.
We say the underdog Cowboys win a tight, low-scoring game on a late field goal.
