Week 10 College Football Betting Odds, Predictions: Our Top 3 Picks for Friday Night (Nov. 4)

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These a holes were 0-2 last night bastards.

Friday night lights are always special, and this week’s Friday college football slate is no exception.

It all starts with a doubleheader at 7 p.m. ET.

The first matchup features two bottom-10 teams in the country, as the UMass Minutemen travel across the New England area to take on the UConn Huskies. Our Collin Wilson has the Huskies at No. 122 in his updated power ratings, while the Minutemen fall dead last at No. 131.

Then, the Duke Blue Devils hit the road to Chestnut Hill to face the Boston College Eagles in what many expect to be a low-scoring grind of a game.

To wrap things up, the Oregon State Beavers and Washington Huskies take the field in a Friday night edition of Pac-12 After Dark.

Read on for a betting preview for all three games below, and be sure to come back tomorrow for Action Network’s full Saturday college football betting coverage.

Friday College Football Best Bets​

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time	Pick
	7 p.m. ET	Under 40.5
	7 p.m. ET	Under 47
	10:30 p.m. ET	Oregon State +4.5
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price

 

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Massachusetts Minutemen​

The Minutemen have yet to win a game against an FBS opponent this season as their only win came against FCS Stony Brook in Week 3.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Minutemen are the worst in all of college football in scoring and passing yards, averaging 12.1 points and 78.8 yards per game.
Their offense relies entirely on the run and they rank fourth in the country in rush rate. They do have some talented rushers and have had five players put up over 100 yards on the ground, but the team averages less than four yards per carry.
When they find themselves in the red zone, they run into even more problems. No team in FBS is worse than Massachusetts at Finishing Drives.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Minutemen show signs of being a real college football team. They rank among the top 75 in Defensive Rush Success, Pass Success, Finishing Drives and Havoc.
The Huskies offense hasn’t been as bad as UMass, but this defense could give them some issues on Friday night.

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Connecticut Huskies​

The Huskies come into this matchup looking to make it 2-0 against the state of Massachusetts after they shocked the world last week and beat Boston College, 13-3, as 7.5-point underdogs.
Their upset win moved UConn to 4-5 on the season and, more importantly, 7-2 ATS. Friday night’s matchup will be the third time the Huskies are favored this season and they both won and covered in each of the first two.
UConn’s win over Boston College was primarily due to the five forced turnovers. Those won’t be as readily available against a Minutemen team that runs the ball more than 70% of the time and ranks 49th in turnover margin.
The Huskies offense is very similar to UMass, leaning almost entirely on the rush as they rank 127th in the nation in pass success. Connecticut (6th) doesn’t rank far behind UMass in rush rate but has gotten more out of every rush and is averaging 4.4 yards per carry.
UConn averages 17.6 points and 178 rush yards per contest.
The Huskies defense may rank outside the top 100 in rush and pass success, but you don’t need to be much better than that to have an advantage over the Minutemen.

UMass vs UConn Betting Pick​

UConn is the better team, and while our Action Network projections make the Huskies a 16-point favorite over UMass, I can’t lay a double-digit number in this game.

Both teams rank inside the top 10 in rush rate and are also outside the top 100 in seconds per play.

Neither team has been productive on offense when it comes to finishing drives, and when you look at their Defensive Finishing Drives numbers, you could make a case it’s the best quality for both teams.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game have less than 15 total points. Therefore, I will be making the only bet that could make this game even less enjoyable to watch: the under.

I’m confident in this game staying under 40 points.

Pick: Under 40.5 or Better​

 

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Duke vs Boston College Betting Pick​

It’s hard to imagine Jurkovec returning from his injury this week. He hasn’t practiced this week, and Boston College doesn’t have much to play for at this point.

The keys will likely be handed to redshirt freshman Emmett Morehead. He has had limited playing time this season and completed 9-of-18 of his passes for 104 yards and an interception last week.

With that said, I don’t trust the Blue Devils laying double digits on the road to a conference opponent. Boston College will hang around for as long as its defense can contain Duke.

Boston College enters this matchup 81st in seconds per play while Duke sits at 105th. This will be a slow-paced battle with both teams looking to establish the run.

We know from Boston College’s history that it likely won’t find success on the ground. And the Eagles’ front seven has been solid this season, holding opponents to 3.9 yards per carry.

I’m playing the under of 47 in a game that won’t be a grind to find success offensively.

Pick: Under 47 ⋅ Play to 46​

 

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Oregon State vs Washington Betting Pick​

The Huskies have failed to cover the spread in four straight games, which only adds to my lack of confidence in Washington. Their offensive success is undeniable, and Penix is one of the best in the game when he’s on the field.

However, I expect the Beavers’ main goal to be to keep him off of it. Oregon State ranks 120th in seconds per play and 24th in rush rate. Their rush game has been solid and if they run into issues there, they have an even more significant advantage in the passing attack.

Washington has been winning games but has had to do so by scoring enough to offset the number of points its defense gives up. I’m confident it’ll find a different level of success against their toughest test in the Pac-12 so far.

I advise taking the points with Oregon State at +3 or better, but I’ll also be placing a wager on the Beavers to pick up the win outright in Seattle for the first time since the Sounders became an MLS team.

Pick: Oregon State +4.5 ⋅ Play to +3​