Wake Forest +7.5 -108

[JDS]

I think these teams match up rather well, WF the more efficient offensive team in-fact. I know the SOS is a little bit of a concern, but I also think those ratings can be very arbitrary in the 1st half to middle of the season which we are still in that realm. Wake Forest is 3-0 ATS & 2-1 SU last 3 years vs NC. I don't like this spot for North Carolina as they have been rolling as of late. Things start to tick back a bit for them right now mid-way through conference play IMO.

Take Wake Forest +7.5 -108 and good luck if you tail

 

[JDS]

This is a BMR best bet.

1. JDS 141-100-0 +54.20 Units

 

[JDS]

 

[BMR Genie]

One of the interesting match-ups today. Both a strong teams. Good luck, JDS!

 

[djefferis]

Agree - as mentioned in JJs post - think UNC wins - but fails to cover here.

Feels alot like a game the Deacons are gonna play tough in - could actually surprise and pull the upset here.

 

[pipe]

View attachment 26014

They were +8 1/2. They average 81 PPG too. Another game where theres an unranked team against a ranked team.

 

[JDS]

They were +8 1/2. They average 81 PPG too. Another game where theres an unranked team against a ranked team.

Yeah I didn't get the best of numbers, did not cap this overnight might get fucked here let' see.

 

[pipe]

Yeah I didn't get the best of numbers, did not cap this overnight might get fucked here let' see.

Nah your on the sharp side Jerky. You got a dog who can score. Not only that they have Better fg percentage better three point percentage and better free throw percentage. I think that they will definitely keep pace and always have a possibility throughout the game to get a back door cover.

 

[JDS]

Nah your on the sharp side Jerky. You got a dog who can score. Not only that they have Better fg percentage better three point percentage and better free throw percentage. I think that they will definitely keep pace and always have a possibility throughout the game to get a back door cover.

Yeah they are more efficient offensively as I stated above & they got back their senior guard Damari Monsanto as @Tanko mentioned in our contest thread.

 

[KVB]

Good stuff Jerky. I have it close to the spread but I believe most forecasts have it on the dog side of it slightly. Public gauge was 8, I beleive.

Need to go to lunch but I'll chime in with a write up this afternoon when I at my spreadsheets and terminal.

 

[JDS]

Good stuff Jerky. I have it close to the spread but I believe most forecasts have it on the dog side of it slightly. Public gauge was 8, I beleive.

Need to go to lunch but I'll chime in with a write up this afternoon when I at my spreadsheets and terminal.

Sounds good enjoy that bud we’ll be waiting patiently.

 

[KingKolzig]

Trailing I've heard wf is a march madness sleeper

 

[JDS]

Trailing I've heard wf is a march madness sleeper

LFG one more time

 

[KingKolzig]

LFG one more time

Hate +7.5 with a near 160 total but they r solid

 

[KVB]

Yeah they are more efficient offensively as I stated above & they got back their senior guard Damari Monsanto as @Tanko mentioned in our contest thread.

He is the best 3 point shooter in the ACC too.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Best of luck!

 

[KVB]

The stacking percentages forecast has North Carolina winning with 80 or 81 points to Wake Forest's 74 points.

The non predictive public gauge has NC winning 80-72.

This line opened very early at NC-9 and most houses hung it at 8.5 early. The line has moved toward the forecast and crossed the public gauge.

The BMR model has this game 83-74, right at that opening spread.

The market opened with a Total of 154 and 154.5 and has risen. That open is right at the Forecast, and above the public gauge of 152. The Total has moved towards and onto the BMR Model of 157 point.

It's a failry tight line but as limits raise and we enter the last hour of trading I predict that the line could press towards 8. It's not a very confident prediction, but I think the sharper money took it to where value ended.

NC is a public team, and they are trading, not at a all time high, but close. They have been covering spreads with the exception of the higher 21.5 Louisville line.

This is the #3 team in the country on ESPN tonight. There is enough public support on this high volume game that it has countered the sharper trades. Let's see how the last hour of trading plays out. We could already be settled at 7.5, even money no vig line.

It's another battle of the public against sharps with some of the public joining the underdog side.

The Total appeared to be seeing a ceiling at 158 and 158.5, tops, but I'm not so sure now. There is pressure on the OVER.

We shouldn't be surprised, the public loves their OVERs and the best ACC 3 pointer shooter in the game is back, on ESPN.

The UNDER 158.5 and possibly 158 are on the radar here, as a Forecast backed Contrarian play.

I know my market analysis isn't for everyone, but this is what I see, at this time.

Good Luck Jerky, the play has a lot of potential built in here. A 7 point Forecast us outright UPSET territory and like Memphis vs S Florida this game could be about the winner, not the spread. If that's the case, then we could see the final score push OVER the Total..

Will be nice to see how this high volume game trades and how they play it out on the court.

Good Luck!

Oh, and this...

 

[JDS]

The stacking percentages forecast has North Carolina winning with 80 or 81 points to Wake Forest's 74 points.

The non predictive public gauge has NC winning 80-72.

This line opened very early at NC-9 and most houses hung it at 8.5 early. The line has moved toward the forecast and crossed the public gauge.

The BMR model has this game 83-74, right at that opening spread.

The market opened with a Total of 154 and 154.5 and has risen. That open is right at the Forecast, and above the public gauge of 152. The Total has moved towards and onto the BMR Model of 157 point.

It's a failry tight line but as limits raise and we enter the last hour of trading I predict that the line could press towards 8. It's not a very confident prediction, but I think the sharper money took it to where value ended.

NC is a public team, and they are trading, not at a all time high, but close. They have been covering spreads with the exception of the higher 21.5 Louisville line.

This is the #3 team in the country on ESPN tonight. There is enough public support on this high volume game that it has countered the sharper trades. Let's see how the last hour of trading plays out. We could already be settled at 7.5, even money no vig line.

It's another battle of the public against sharps with some of the public joining the underdog side.

The Total appeared to be seeing a ceiling at 158 and 158.5, tops, but I'm not so sure now. There is pressure on the OVER.

We shouldn't be surprised, the public loves their OVERs and the best ACC 3 pointer shooter in the game is back, on ESPN.

The UNDER 158.5 and possibly 158 are on the radar here, as a Forecast backed Contrarian play.

I know my market analysis isn't for everyone, but this is what I see, at this time.

Good Luck Jerky, the play has a lot of potential built in here. A 7 point Forecast us outright UPSET territory and like Memphis vs S Florida this game could be about the winner, not the spread. If that's the case, then we could see the final score push OVER the Total..

Will be nice to see how this high volume game trades and how they play it out on the court.

Good Luck!

Oh, and this...

Now that’s how you break down a fuckin‘ game folks

I‘m glad this play has potential built in like that USF pick did the other night for KVB.

 

[KVB]

The Total appeared to be seeing a ceiling at 158 and 158.5, tops, but I'm not so sure now. There is pressure on the OVER.

We shouldn't be surprised, the public loves their OVERs and the best ACC 3 pointer shooter in the game is back, on ESPN.

We are seeing 159.5, as the OVER is slammed in New Jersey and some spots online.

This move to at least 159 but perhaps 159.5 looks like it could become market wide.

 

[KVB]

The UNDER 158.5 and possibly 158 are on the radar here, as a Forecast backed Contrarian play.

I've talked about so many different aspects and angles of the Contrarian Fund strategies but not sure I've gone into much at BMR.

One thing here is to note that the line was not only getting hit on the OVER, as I said could come, but the market blinked on it and is 159.5 in many spots.

When the market holds, like they were at 158 or so, but takes in that money, it can increase some contrarian metrics. It's the epitome of that low line that feels like a trap.

But they blinked, huge, before the last hour of trading too. While the number gets better for for the Contrarian Fund, some contrarian metrics get worse. It's a complex formula or better put set of formula that can sometime cancel each other out.

So is there still a contrarian look on this UNDER 159.5? Yes, to a degree, but the make up of the strategy looks different than it did before.

Just something I thought I'd mention to those interested. I know @purplegrape has likely missed a lot of my BMR writings and I should tag him more often.

One of these days I'll get a daily livestream or show where we run down the markets. Full of shit like this stuff in this thread and other recent threads.