Week 5 NFL underdog picks: Why you should back Steelers on the road vs. Buffalo
- Updated: Oct. 07, 2022, 1:20 p.m.|
- Published: Oct. 07, 2022, 1:00 p.m.
- Riding the momentum of four straight 2-1 against-the-spread weeks to open the season, we’re moving to the next slate and our best Week 5 underdog picks.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- The Steelers are scuffling at 1-3 and have turned to rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett to (hopefully) spark an offense that’s averaging 18.5 points per game.
QB Josh Allen and the 3-1 Bills, meanwhile, bounced back from a tough loss in the Miami heat to rally for a 23-20 road win in rainy Baltimore.
We’re certainly not anticipating a repeat of the Steelers’ 23-16 upset win in Buffalo in Week 1 of last season.
But Pickett and Co. should be able to do just enough to cover the season’s largest spread to date.
Especially in this odd situational spot for Buffalo which would hardly be faulted for being just a tiny bit distracted by its calendar-circled Week 6 showdown with the Chiefs in Kansas City.
Pick: Steelers +14 or more (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
- Two 2-2 AFC foes clash Sunday at the Dawg Pound.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers are coming off a much-needed 34-24 road win in Houston while the Browns will be looking to rebound from a tough 23-20 road defeat in Atlanta.
A key matchup pits Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and the league’s second-best rushing attack (187.3 yards per game) against a Chargers defense allowing 109.8 yards per game.
Perhaps even more alarming is the 5.4 yards per attempt, good for the second most in the league.
That could be a problem Sunday for the Bolts as would All-Pro Myles Garrett’s return from the injury list.
We’re rolling with the underdog Browns here at a field goal or more and if this gets to 3.5 points, definitely scoop the points with the home team.
Pick: Browns +3 (-110 or better)
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
QB Dak Prescott likely won’t return from his Week 1 thumb injury, but his absence has become less of an issue with every above-grade Cooper Rush fill-in performance.
Rush is now 4-0 as a starter over the last two seasons with six TD passes and one interception in those four contests.
His 73.9 QBR this season ranks fourth among all QBs, behind only Patrick Mahomes (82.3), Tua Tagovailoa (77.8), and Allen (76.5).
The Dallas defense, meanwhile, has permitted the third-fewest points (15.5) and seventh-fewest yards (308.5).
Matthew Stafford (four TDs, six picks) and the struggling Rams’ offense ranks among the bottom five in both categories, averaging only 17.5 points and 294 yards during a 2-2 start.
The ominous L.A. numbers don’t end there.
Despite being the defending champs, the Rams have been anything but a sure bet, going 11-14 ATS, including 8-12 as a favorite, since the start of last season.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, have posted a league-best 16-6 ATS record during that same span, including a 5-2 mark as an underdog.
It all adds up to Dallas being our top underdog play of the week.
Pick: Cowboys +5.5 or more (-110 or better)
