The calendar is flipping to October and after opening with three straight 2-1 against-the-spread weeks, we’re back with another trio of NFL underdog bets for Week
After scanning lines from the top NFL betting sites, here are our three best NFL Week 4 underdog picks.
Two of the league’s most impressive teams so far meet Sunday afternoon in Philly.
Since giving away a game in Week 1, Trevor Lawrence and the Jags have notched blowout wins over the Colts and Chargers. They also own the league’s second-best point differential at plus-46.
The 3-0 Eagles are right behind at plus-36 and QB Jalen Hurts — averaging 361 total yards of total offense so far — is playing like an early MVP candidate.
Both offenses and defenses in this game possess top-six offensive and defensive rankings in Football Outsiders’ respected DVOA metrics. And both are plus-4 or better in turnover differential with Jacksonville a league-best plus-7.
Jaguars head coach Doug Peterson may not get the measure of revenge he’s hoping for here after his Philly dismissal, but his team certainly has enough to keep this game close.
Pick: Jaguars +6.5 (-110 or better)
On the flip side of impressive, we have the 1-2 Cards and Panthers going head-to-head here.
Neither offense or defense has been particularly impressive this season, and both teams capitalized on multiple opponent miscues to notch their only wins.
It’s a meeting of former Heisman-winning No. 1 overall quarterback picks from the University of Oklahoma in Carolina’s Baker Mayfield and Arizona’s Kyler Murray, and in this particular matchup, we’ll give the edge to the more dynamic play-maker in Murray.
And that leads us into a hard-to-fathom but key stat here: The Panthers, under third-year coach Matt Rhule are an absolutely brutal 1-25 in games where they’ve allowed 17 or more points.
Murray and the Cards are averaging 20.7 points, and if they can avoid the aforementioned costly turnovers, they’ll hit that average and win a tight game on the road.
Pick: Cardinals +2 or better (-110).
Much to the chagrin of Bill Belichick and Patriots Nation, the Tom Brady-Aaron Rodgers matchup took place this past Sunday in Tampa.
Even more alarming for the Pats is that Brady’s replacement, second-year QB Mac Jones, will sit out this one with an ankle injury. In steps veteran backup Brian Hoyer who is an abysmal 1-18 as a starter since 2016.
The Pats have covered, though, in eight of the 10 games in which they’ve been catching eight or more points under Belichick. And — somehow, some way — we think they’ll manage to keep the damage to single digits Sunday afternoon against Rodgers and the Pack at Lambeau.
Pick: Patriots +9.5 or better (-110)
Week 4 ATS best bets: Jags, Cards, and Patriots cover on the road
After scanning lines from the top NFL betting sites, here are our three best NFL Week 4 underdog picks.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m. ET, Sunday.
Two of the league’s most impressive teams so far meet Sunday afternoon in Philly.
Since giving away a game in Week 1, Trevor Lawrence and the Jags have notched blowout wins over the Colts and Chargers. They also own the league’s second-best point differential at plus-46.
The 3-0 Eagles are right behind at plus-36 and QB Jalen Hurts — averaging 361 total yards of total offense so far — is playing like an early MVP candidate.
Both offenses and defenses in this game possess top-six offensive and defensive rankings in Football Outsiders’ respected DVOA metrics. And both are plus-4 or better in turnover differential with Jacksonville a league-best plus-7.
Jaguars head coach Doug Peterson may not get the measure of revenge he’s hoping for here after his Philly dismissal, but his team certainly has enough to keep this game close.
Pick: Jaguars +6.5 (-110 or better)
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers, 4:05 p.m. ET, Sunday.
On the flip side of impressive, we have the 1-2 Cards and Panthers going head-to-head here.
Neither offense or defense has been particularly impressive this season, and both teams capitalized on multiple opponent miscues to notch their only wins.
It’s a meeting of former Heisman-winning No. 1 overall quarterback picks from the University of Oklahoma in Carolina’s Baker Mayfield and Arizona’s Kyler Murray, and in this particular matchup, we’ll give the edge to the more dynamic play-maker in Murray.
And that leads us into a hard-to-fathom but key stat here: The Panthers, under third-year coach Matt Rhule are an absolutely brutal 1-25 in games where they’ve allowed 17 or more points.
Murray and the Cards are averaging 20.7 points, and if they can avoid the aforementioned costly turnovers, they’ll hit that average and win a tight game on the road.
Pick: Cardinals +2 or better (-110).
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday.
Much to the chagrin of Bill Belichick and Patriots Nation, the Tom Brady-Aaron Rodgers matchup took place this past Sunday in Tampa.
Even more alarming for the Pats is that Brady’s replacement, second-year QB Mac Jones, will sit out this one with an ankle injury. In steps veteran backup Brian Hoyer who is an abysmal 1-18 as a starter since 2016.
The Pats have covered, though, in eight of the 10 games in which they’ve been catching eight or more points under Belichick. And — somehow, some way — we think they’ll manage to keep the damage to single digits Sunday afternoon against Rodgers and the Pack at Lambeau.
Pick: Patriots +9.5 or better (-110)
