Underdogs Corner Week 11

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#NFL Week 11 Underdog ATS Picks
Went 2-1 last week & now 19-11 (.633) on the season with 11 of the 19 winning outright.
This week's selections:
* Bears +3.5 at Falcons
* Texans +3.5 vs. Commanders
* Cardinals +8 vs. 49ers

 

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NFL Luck Rankings: Week 11 Picks According to Expert Projections for Lions vs Giants, Colts vs Eagles, More​

 

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Eagles (4) vs.​

Colts (21)​

Nick Giffen: The Washington Commandersshowed the formula for beating the Philadelphia Eagles: Run the ball.

Thankfully for the Colts, they should be able to do just that. Star running back Jonathan Taylor just ripped off 147 yards on the ground vs. the 24th ranked Raiders run defense by DVOA. Now, he faces an Eagles defense that’s ranked even worse in 28th.

That contrasts sharply with the Eagles top-ranked pass defense, making the Eagles a run funnel to exploit.

Pick: Colts +6.5

 

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Lions (22) vs.​

Giants (1)​

Sean Koerner: At some point the Giants’ luck is going to run out. While New York is 7-1 in one-possession games, the Lions are 2-4.

The Giants are coming off a Week 10 win that was the luckiest in the NFL by our expected score metric. They have also faced the third easiest schedule to date. When we use expected score and schedule adjust those results, the Giants actually come out lower than the Lions in third-order Pythagorean win percentage.

Pick: Lions +3

 

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Commanders (11) vs.​

Texans (31)​

Nick Giffen: This seems like a great bounce-back spot for Houston, which suffered Week 10’s worst beat at the hands of the Luck Rankings’ No. 1 one team in the Giants.

Not only that, but the Texans face a Commanders team that may be perceived as better than they are after dismantling the previous week’s number one lucky team, Philadelphia.

These teams are nearly equal in third-order Pythagorean win percentage, so getting Houston as an underdog at home is nice.

Pick: Texans +3