UFC Fight Night Saturday - Cory Sandhagen vs. Rob Font

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UFC Fight Night expert picks and best bets: Can Rob Font handle Cory Sandhagen on short notice?​

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Cory Sandhagen and Rob Font square off in the main event of UFC Fight Night at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee, on Saturday night (9 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, with prelims at 6 p.m. also on ESPN/ESPN+).

Both fighters are bantamweights, but this bout will be contested as a 140-pound catchweight because Font was brought in on short notice after Sandhagen's original opponent, Umar Nurmagomedov, withdrew with an injury.

Sandhagen, ranked No. 5 in ESPN's divisional rankings, has won back-to-back fights. Most recently, he beat Marlon Vera by split decision in March. Font, ranked No. 9, enters this fight following a first-round knockout win over Adrian Yanez at UFC 287 in April.

Brett Okamoto spoke to veteran coach and ESPN analyst Din Thomas to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

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140-pound catchweight: Cory Sandhagen vs. Rob Font​

Din Thomas, veteran coach and ESPN analyst​

Tale Of The Tape​

	SANDHAGEN	FONT
Age	31.3	36.1
Height	71.0	68.0
Reach	70.0	71.5
Stance	Switch	Orthodox
Last Fight	Mar. 25, 2022	Apr. 8, 2023

How Sandhagen wins: Versatility, which is something he exhibits probably better than anybody in the division. The way he kicks, switches stances and mixes in takedown attempts. The one thing he needs to be aware of is Font's length. Font can give Sandhagen problems with his length, especially early in the fight. Font is a lot longer than Sandhagen and he fights a lot longer than people expect, which is why his jab is so effective. I don't think the jab will be the deciding factor in this fight, but if Sandhagen lets him get it going and then Font starts throwing those long right hands, that could be a problem.

How Font wins: He needs to be aware of everything in this fight. Font is good but he's predictable. He can do some different things, but the core of his game is centered around boxing, and when that's the case, you can become a little predictable. And then it's hard to get a read on someone who is moving, switching stances and being extremely elusive. Font needs to contain Sandhagen. Defensively, he can't chase Sandhagen's strikes. He can't get caught reaching for something he thinks is coming. He needs to maintain his position defensively. You can't reach to block shots from a guy like Sandhagen, who is so dynamic and trying to trick you.

X-factor: The ground game, particularly for Font. Whichever guy gets top position while on the ground is going to be stealing points. Every second Font is on top, he's nullifying Sandhagen's striking. I think he is good enough to get Sandhagen down and hold him down throughout a five-round fight.

Prediction: Sandhagen by decision.

Betting analysis​

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen Vs. Font​

Stand-up striking offense	Sandhagen	Font
Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down)	4:1	7:5
Distance knockdown rate	1.4%	1.3%
Head jab accuracy	26%	37%
Head power accuracy	41%	40%
Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted)	1.4	1.5
Wrestling and grappling
TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch	0.33	0.23
Takedown Accuracy	22%	36%
Advances per takedown/top control	0.4	0.4
Opponent takedown attempts	37	40
Takedown defense	65%	55%
Share of fight time in ground control	66%	28%
Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground	0.14	0.17
Table compiled by Reed Kuhn

Kuhn: Lean Sandhagen for parlays, but pass at -300 odds or steeper. On paper, these guys are a lot alike. Both are aggressive pressure strikers with excellent accuracy, though occasionally sloppy defense. With nearly identical metrics in every offensive striking category, only Sandhagen's tendency to switch stances, and Font's more vulnerable chin stand out as potential difference makers.

But the ground game leans more favorably toward Sandhagen. He's more likely to end up in top control, and he's been able to maintain control much better than Font has. This will be Sandhagen's path to winning close rounds if neither can differentiate on the feet. Unfortunately, Sandhagen's price has risen significantly. He's a decent parlay leg, but there's not much value in the current moneyline.

Parker: Sandhagen to win (-330); Over 3.5 rounds. Since his loss to Petr Yan in October 2021, Sandhagen has looked like a man on a mission with two dominant wins over Song Yadong and "Chito" Vera. Sandhagen is strong both on the feet and on the mat, and can maintain a pace that is difficult for most opponents to keep up with. Font is a good boxer who puts out a lot of volume. And as we saw in his last fight, he has the knockout power to get it done. He has also tremendously improved his ground game.

However, the biggest difference between these two is the advantage that Sandhagen will have if he can put Font on his back. Once he's there, he will be able to take over the round or the fight. With both fighters being durable, and Sandhagen having the patience to avoid forcing a finish, I believe this fight goes over 3.5 rounds.

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Best bets on the rest of the card​

Strawweight: Jessica Andrade vs. Tatiana Suarez​

Kuhn: Suarez to win (-400), use in parlays. It's hard to imagine Andrade being a huge underdog to anyone at strawweight, but Suarez's win streak includes finishes over former champions of two divisions. Suarez will also look like she's from a larger weight class. Her size will help her avoid damage from Andrade's striking, and eventually force the fight to the ground.

Once there, Suarez has the credentials and the performance metrics of a truly dominant grappler. She can easily win rounds on the mat and she has a history of finishes by strikes and by submissions. If she can continue to make 115 pounds, she's a future contender, and a win over Andrade would prove it.

Parker: Suarez to win inside the distance. Normally, I would say Andrade is a tough opponent for anyone. However, Suarez might be facing her at the right time, because this is not the same Andrade we are used to seeing. This will be her fourth fight in eight months, and she was finished in her last two bouts. After losing by first-round knockout at UFC 288 in May, this may be too quick of a turnaround. When Andrade is pressured and forced to fight off her back foot, she doesn't handle it well. And that is exactly what will happen here against the dominant wrestler in Suarez.

Light heavyweight: Tanner Boser vs. Aleksa Camur​

Parker: Boser to win (-160). Boser will be the better technical striker, and I believe his cardio could be a factor here. Camur is coming off back-to-back losses and a two-year layoff. As we have seen with most fighters, ring rust is real. I think Boser will be able to handle whatever Camur plans on throwing at him.

Lightweight: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Ludovit Klein​

Parker: Over 2.5 rounds. Klein is a good striker, who also has the ability to win the fight on the mat with solid top control. Bahamondes is also a good striker, but he likes to strike from a distance and stay on the outside. This should be a fun back-and-forth fight that should last from bell to bell. In his last fight against Trey Ogden, Bahamondes controlled the pace and fought from a distance for all three rounds. I see him doing the same here to avoid the power of Klein.

Men's bantamweight: Kyler Phillips vs. Raoni Barcelos​

Kuhn: Phillips to win (-200). Phillips will look like he's in the driver's seat while this fight remains standing, being the much rangier and busier striker. That should put Barcelos on the defensive whenever they are trading leather from a distance.

Barcelos does have the more dominant ground control metrics, he just hasn't taken the fight there as often. He has scored knockdowns over the years, but facing such a range disadvantage against a younger and undamaged opponent, that puncher's chance may not be worth the return.