UFC Fight Night: Gane vs Spivac

[Wagerallsports]

UFC Fight Night expert picks and best bets: Can Ciryl Gane get back on track vs. Serghei Spivac?​

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Former heavyweight title challenger Ciryl Gane returns to the Octagon in his home country to take on rising contender Serghei Spivac in the main event at UFC Fight Night in Paris on Saturday (3 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims at 12:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+).

Gane, ranked No. 3 in ESPN's divisional rankings, is coming off a loss to Jon Jones for the UFC heavyweight title at UFC 285 in March. Spivac, ranked No. 7, enters the fight riding a three-fight win streak. He finished his opponents (Derrick Lewis, Augusto Sakai and Greg Hardy) in each of those bouts.

Marc Raimondi spoke to Main Street Boxing and Muay Thai coach Bob Perez to get his perspective on the UFC main event. Perez coaches UFC heavyweight Derrick Lewis, who fought and lost to both Gane and Spivac. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.

Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

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Heavyweight: Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac​

Bob Perez, Main Street Boxing and Muay Thai coach​

Tale Of The Tape​

	GANE	SPIVAC
Age	33.4	28.6
Height	76.0	75.0
Reach	81.0	78.0
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Last Fight	Mar. 4, 2023	Feb. 4, 2023

How Gane wins: Generally when you talk about fighting a strong grappler or wrestler, there are certain concepts that you have to use to win. The first is that Gane can't get caught backing up. He has to use good footwork and lateral movement. Don't stay directly in front of Spivac. Second, Gane has to keep his stance nice and small with bended knees. He can't be tall and upright. If he is upright, that could favor the grappler. Also, Gane is going to have to use volume. If he starts one-shotting stuff, he can become predictable and Spivac will be able to hit that entry. Gane will have to feint a lot. The uppercut, the feint and the knee up the middle are all things that can keep Spivac from mindlessly rushing in and getting the body lock.

How Spivac wins: Keep intelligent pressure on Gane. Push him straight back, putting him on the fence. Spivac will need to negate that striking range to get inside. But once he's inside, the guy's a legit grappler. So, it's going to take intelligent pressure on Spivac's part, making Gane fight without too much unpredictable movement.

X-factor: The hometown advantage. But it can be a disadvantage at times. It happened with [my fighter] Derrick [Lewis]. Sometimes it can truly motivate you. Sometimes it can add to the pressure that's already there.

Prediction: I'd like to see Gane win, but I just feel that Spivac is going to be able to find a way. He's going to be stubborn. He might get clipped coming in, but I think he will be determined to get a hold of Gane. Whether he finishes him or not, I don't know, but I think he will definitely control the fight. I'm going with Spivac on this one. Gane's weakness in grappling is not a secret. He is a great fighter, but in regards to grappling, Spivac is just on another level and Gane has kind of been exposed.

Betting analysis​

UFC Fight Night: Gane Vs. Spivac​

Stand-up striking offense	Gane	Spivac
Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down)	3:1	0:2
Distance knockdown rate	1.4%	0.0%
Head jab accuracy	42%	38%
Head power accuracy	42%	36%
Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted)	1.4	0.9
Wrestling and grappling
TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch	0.21	0.97
Takedown Accuracy	21%	66%
Advances per takedown/top control	0.5	0.8
Opponent takedown attempts	11	10
Takedown defense	45%	70%
Share of fight time in ground control	27%	78%
Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground	0.42	0.10
Table compiled by Reed Kuhn

Kuhn: Gane to win (-170), fight does not go the distance (-500). Gane's striking is elite, and he'll have clear technical advantages over the smaller, sloppier Spivac. But Gane's below-average takedown defense is the biggest liability in this matchup.

Spivac succeeds with his ground game, having shown success taking superior strikers down for a finish. However, fighters who could stuff his early takedowns fared much better. Obviously, this has been the focus of Gane's improving MMA skill set, and even if he's limited to just a few standing exchanges at the beginning of rounds, that might be all he needs. It may take time to develop, but there's too much finishing potential to believe this goes 25 minutes.

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Best bets on the rest of the card​

Women's flyweight: Manon Fiorot vs. Rose Namajunas​

Kuhn: Lean Fiorot to win (-180), over 2.5 rounds or fight goes the distance (-175). I don't like betting against Namajunas, but the move up in weight class against a similarly technical striker makes Fiorot a justifiable favorite. The lean would be negligible, were it not combining the tight matchup with the weight class switch.

Namajunas has always been a dual-threat fighter, sometimes effortlessly deploying techniques against opponents who just can't keep up. But raw strength has sometimes been an obstacle, as it was when she lost her title to Jessica Andrade. And that boosts the chances for Fiorot, who will have a size advantage over the former strawweight fighter.

As long as Fiorot doesn't tempt fate on the mat, her striking should decide the rounds, even if a finish is unlikely.

Lightweight: Benoit Saint Denis vs. Thiago Moises​

Kuhn: Saint Denis to win (-160). On paper, Saint Denis has better offensive metrics in nearly every category.


One glaring hole for Saint Denis is poor head strike defense, yet Moises hasn't been a threat there. Moises has mediocre accuracy, a low pace of output, and has yet to score a single knockdown in nearly two hours of Octagon time. Combined with superior grappling metrics, Saint Denis should be in control on both levels.

Light heavyweight: Volkan Oezdemir vs. Bogdan Guskov​

Parker: Oezdemir to win (-180). Oezdemir is a former title challenger and, as proven in his fight against Paul Craig last year, he is still more than capable of competing with the top fighters in the division. Guskov is on a four-fight win streak, but only one of those opponents has a winning record. Look for Oezdemir to avoid the early onslaught from Guskov and pick Guskov apart to get a finish in the second or third round.

Men's bantamweight: Farid Basharat vs. Kleidison Rodrigues​

Parker: Farid Basharat to win (-350). Coming off a dominant win over Da'mon Blackshear, Basharat showed that he is more than comfortable fighting wherever the fight goes. I expect a similar fight from him against Rodrigues. Rodrigues is tough and carries a ton of power, but his takedown defense is not great, and that will leave openings for Basharat to take the fight there whenever he wants. Once the fight hits the mat, Rodrigues' power will no longer be a threat and Basharat will take over.

 

[jjgold]

Lean game

 

[BMR Genie]

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