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UFC Fight Night: Expert picks and best bets for Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALAfter a rare week off, UFC Fight Night is back in Las Vegas with a Saturday headliner between two heavyweights ranked in the top 10.
Former Bellator heavyweight champion Alexander Volkov, ranked No. 6 in ESPN's heavyweight rankings, is looking to bounce back after taking a quick submission loss to Tom Aspinall in March. Volkov is 8-4 in the UFC (four wins by knockout).
After winning his first four fights in the UFC, Jairzinho Rozenstruik is just 2-3 in his past five matches. The No. 10-ranked heavyweight in ESPN's rankings hasn't stepped into the Octagon in nine months, but the Surinamese fighter carries significant power, as all six of his wins have come via knockout.
ESPN's Marc Raimondi touched base with an MMA coaching veteran to get his perspective on this heavyweight matchup and how things could play out. ESPN's betting experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn added their insights for everything from the main event to some intriguing bets they like lower down the card.
Heavyweight: Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
Tale Of The Tape: Volkov Vs. Rozenstruik
| VOLKOV | ROZENSTRUIK | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 33.6 | 34.2 |
| Height | 6-7 | 6-2 |
| Reach | 80.0 | 78.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Last fight | Mar. 19, 2022 | Sept. 25, 2021 |
Cage management will be a real factor in this fight. Volkov also has an excellent top-side ground game. I don't see him utilizing it much for this fight, but I think he should score a takedown or two against the cage. Make Jairzinho think about the level change or ground game. Will Volkov do that? Probably not. In that case, it's all about distance management until he can get Jairzinho's back to the cage and use any Greco-Roman wrestling, a Thai clinch, dirty boxing or press Rozenstruik on the cage.
How Rozenstruik wins: He's always waiting to counter, and I think that's been his knock. He waits back, and the fight slips out of his hands, except for that Alistair Overeem fight where he hit that Hail Mary knockout at the end. If that's his plan here, maybe he can draw out some mirrors from Volkov. What I mean is, if Rozenstruik throws an inside leg kick, Volkov might lead with the same strike or combo -- and then use that bait to close the distance. Throw the leg kick, and get him to throw it back. And then make it a phone booth fight. He will have to find his way through that distance or lose a dull decision. That's the bottom line.
X factor: We're talking about two guys in this weird limbo in the heavyweight division. I feel like the X factor is who wants this more. I want to see somebody move in and go and take it. Usually, both of them are perfectly OK with a decision. Who's willing to walk through a bit of fire, put pace on a guy and put an exclamation point on this fight? There are contenders at heavyweight, guys who have a say in the division. And right now, Volkov and Jairzinho don't.
Prediction: Volkov by decision. That's the safest choice. I think he does just enough to win. I don't think he blows Rozenstruik out of the water. I think he stays a beat ahead of him on the scorecards.
Betting analysis
UFC Fight Night: Volkov Vs. Rozenstruik
| Stand-up striking offense | Volkov | Rozenstruik |
| Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down) | 3:2 | 6:1 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 1.2% | 7.0% |
| Head jab accuracy | 42% | 28% |
| Head power accuracy | 47% | 29% |
| Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 70% | 0% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 76 | 36 |
| Takedown defense | 75% | 75% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 18% | 4% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
That leaves a striking duel pitting precision versus power. Volkov is among the most accurate long-range strikers in the UFC, applying pressure from a distance to pick apart even seasoned and dangerous counterstrikers. The real knockout threat is from Rozenstruik, with twice the knockdowns scored compared to Volkov in fewer rounds.
Backing Volkov in the main event will be a sweat, hoping that he doesn't get caught. Fortunately, he's been there plenty of times before and has proved he can take advantage of less technical strikers.
Ian Parker: Over 2.5 rounds. Rozenstruik should have the power advantage here. However, I don't expect him to throw too much early on due to his counterstrike style. Volkov tends to throw a good amount of volume but will be hesitant to engage due to the power of Rozenstruik. I expect both men to be very methodical in their approach, as neither man wants to have their losing streak fall to two in a row.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Dan Ige vs. Movsar Evloev
Kuhn: Evloev to win (-400). For a proper stylistic contrast, watch for Evloev to wrestle early and often against Ige, a striker. Evloev's striking metrics aren't bad, but he's unlikely to spend too much time in the pocket, where Ige performs best. Ige's ground metrics will be tested, and they haven't been great so far. His takedown defense comes in at average, and he's been controlled on the mat far more often than not. It's still a step up in competition for Evloev, but it's also a favorable stylistic matchup making him parlay fodder.Ode Osbourne vs. Zarrukh Adashev
Parker: Osbourne to win. In his fight against Manel Kape, Osbourne looked like he was on his way to an upset victory until he got caught with a flying knee that shut his lights out. However, Osbourne bounced back with a unanimous decision victory over CJ Vergara three months later. He will be looking for his second straight win as he prepares for a striker in Adashev.
Osbourne needs to lean on his wrestling and avoid Adashev's power. Adashev doesn't throw a ton of volume, so Osbourne should stay away from a brawl and uses his grappling to his advantage.
Alex da Silva vs. Joe Solecki
Kuhn: Solecki to win (-175), Over 2.5 rounds. Finally, we have two willing grapplers, but it's hard to tell who will get the upper hand on the ground. Both Solecki and da Silva attempt frequent takedowns and have spent most of their fight time on the ground and in control of opponents. However, Solecki has shown better accuracy and pressure standing up than Coelho.
Solecki's opening price has come down a little, making him playable as long as he's still under -200. They have only two total submission attempts and zero knockdowns scored between them. So, expect this one to hit the cards.
