Wagerallsports
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2018
- Messages
- 52,823
UFC 307: Expert picks and best bets for Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALAlex Pereira will make his third title defense of 2024 as he puts the UFC light heavyweight championship on the line against Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event at UFC 307 at Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPNews/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6:30 p.m. pm ESPN+).
Pereira, No. 2 on ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings, has won each of his last three title fights by knockout. But that has not deterred Rountree, who said he plans to keep the fight standing against the champion. Rountree, No. 7 in ESPN's divisional rankings, enters the fight riding a five-fight winning streak, including knockouts of his last two opponents.
In the co-main event, women's bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington goes for her first defense of the belt against former champ Julianna Peña. Pennington is on a six-fight winning streak dating back to January 2020. Meanwhile, Peña has not competed since she lost the title in a rematch against Amanda Nunes in July 2022.
Andreas Hale spoke to retired UFC welterweight and UFC analyst Alan Jouban to get his perspective on the main event, while women's bantamweight fighter Miesha Tate gave her take on the co-main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Light heavyweight: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
Alan Jouban, retired UFC welterweight and UFC analyst
How Pereira wins: Be patient. Rountree is going to be the most dangerous early on. Even though Pereira's fights don't last long, he should let that adrenaline subside and make the fight a chess match. Although they are both knockout artists, Pereira is more seasoned and has more tools. When Rountree's energy starts dying down, Pereira can get his boxing going. Rountree also likes to lunge forward with one or two power strikes. If Pereira can land combinations, he can throw off the explosive power of Rountree. So let the fight settle down and start pressing the action with the boxing as the fight goes into the later rounds.How Rountree wins: Roundtree has to come out guns blazing early. Use that explosive power to get the job done early. He can't allow the fight to get into the later rounds where his adrenaline will die down and the technique can get sloppy, which Pereira will exploit. He has to believe in himself and can't get complacent.
X factor: Leg kicks. Rountree has devastating, explosive leg kicks. I know because I've trained with him, and he's often hurt my leg. But that was southpaw against southpaw. Against Pereira, he has to use his inside leg kicks. We're going to see a leg kick battle in this one. Both fighters will use the power leg kick to the inside leg, which can often result in low blows or a broken foot because it can hit the kneecap. It will be interesting to see who gets the better of that battle.
Prediction: Pereira to win by TKO.
Betting analysis
Parker: Pereira to win by KO/TKO (-375), use in parlay. I like Pereira in this matchup, but I don't love the odds we're getting him at, even taking him to win by KO/TKO.
This is a matchup between two good strikers. Rountree is a threat to upset Pereira with his aggression and high-level kickboxing, especially considering Pereira keeps his hands low. But Pereira, with his precision striking, has more ways to win. Keep in mind that Pereira has been training with former UFC light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira, so don't be surprised if he's the first one to shoot for a takedown. I would lean over 1.5 rounds here, but take Pereira to win by KO/TKO and it throw in your parlay.
Women's bantamweight: Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña
Miesha Tate, UFC women's bantamweight
How Pennington wins: Be smart and calculated. Don't be surprised if she adds takedowns to her game plan against Peña. Pennington is also a big body at 135 pounds with great balance and she is really heavy if she gets on top of you. Her striking will also be key. She uses different angles well, making it hard to predict where the punches and kicks are coming from.How Peña wins: She has to come forward and use pressure. Closing the distance and controlling the cage will be important in this matchup. Pennington is a clean and crisp striker so Peña has to push her against the cage and use her clinch work. Peña is good at crashing in, but she doesn't do it with reckless abandon. She has an underrated ability to close the distance and connect with her opponent using her body. And if she does take Pennington down, Peña is heavy on top and is really good in that position.
X factor: Wrestling. Who will do a better job of initiating the clinch and going for takedowns? Who will be in top position on the mat first? It will be a battle of who is first all night and that will impress the judges if there's not much action in the fight.
Prediction: None. I'm too close to both of them to be able to make a prediction.
Betting analysis
Parker: Pennington to win (-170). Two factors aren't in Peña's favor in this matchup. First, Peña is coming off an over two-year layoff. And second is her lack of technical striking. Her only path to victory against Pennington is to lean on her wrestling for all five rounds, but I don't see that happening. Pennington has better striking with good takedown defense and she has the cardio to match Peña's pace. If you don't like where the moneyline odds currently sit, take Pennington to win by decision for even money.
Parker's best bets on the rest of the card
Welterweight: Stephen 'Wonderboy' Thompson vs. Joaquin Buckley
Buckley to win by decision. Buckley is getting an opponent, whose gameplan he already knows. Thompson is a high-IQ fighter, looking to strike from a distance and use his lateral movement to avoid Buckley's powerful striking and takedown attempts. Buckley has to mix it up here, because if he plays Thompson's game, he could lose this fight. But if he mixes in the takedowns and ground game, he can control the fight.Due to Thompson's durability, take Buckley to win by decision. "Wonderboy" will have his moments in this fight, but for Buckley getting the win is most important and that will likely come by decision.
