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UFC 274 expert picks and best bets for Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje, Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza 2
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Two championship belts will be on the line during Saturday's UFC 274 (10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ PPV) at Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona, in one of the most stacked PPV cards of the year.
The main event features UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira making his second title defense against No. 1 contender Justin Gaethje. Oliveira enters Saturday night's title bout on a 10-fight winning streak with wins over Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Tony Ferguson. Gaethje's last loss came against former lightweight champ Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 254 in October 2020. Gaethje then went on to defeat Chandler in a fight of the year performance at Madison Square Garden last November to earn a second shot at the belt.
The co-main event is a rematch for the UFC strawweight title between Rose Namajunas and Carla Esparza. Esparza handed Namajunas her first MMA loss in 2014 and was crowned first-ever UFC strawweight champion. Both Namajunas and Esparza have fought some of the toughest contenders in the division since the Ultimate Fighter 20 final. Namajunas became the division's first two-time champion last April, defeating Zhang Weili, while Esparza is on a five-fight winning streak, beating Marina Rodriguez and Xiaonan Yan to earn another fight with Namajunas.
The third fight on the card is a top-10 lightweight scrap between Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson. Both fighters are looking to bounce back after suffering losses in their previous two appearances in the Octagon.
Where is the betting value? Will the favorites prevail? Veteran MMA Coach John Wood of Syndicate MMA breaks down the two title fights for Brett Okamoto from an inside-the-octagon perspective, while experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn analyze the card from a betting viewpoint.
UFC lightweight championship: Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje
John Wood, Syndicate MMA
Tale Of The Tape
| OLIVEIRA | GAETHJE | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 33 |
| Height | 5-foot-10 | 5-foot-11 |
| Reach | 74.0" | 70.0" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Last fight | 12/11/2021 | 11/06/2021 |
How Oliveira wins: Oliveira's easiest path to victory would be on the ground. His standup game has improved, but standing with Gaethje does not end well for many people. Dustin Poirier was the last guy to have success standing with Gaethje, and Poirier has great boxing and knockout power. Oliveira has to get the fight to the ground and win by submission. It won't be easy to take Gaethje down -- especially with all of Gaethje's weapons -- but it's those scramble situations in which Oliveira jumps on your back and pulls you to the ground where he can get this advantage. I don't see Oliveira shooting a double leg and getting him down that way. I've never been a "pull guard" kind of coach, but it would have to be one of those situations.
How Gaethje wins: Gaethje has been a smarter fighter lately, not taking as much damage, but he shouldn't underestimate Oliveira's standup. I wouldn't want to see him fight in his old style, dropping his hands and trying to beat Oliveira to the punch. Gaethje has to use constant pressure, stay at range with his jab and kick constantly. His biggest advantage will be to pressure Oliveira with body shots and walk him down. Oliveira has some tricky stuff, but if Gaethje constantly walks him down and beats up his legs and body, I think he will have an opportunity to wear him out.
Potential X-Factor: Oliveira's submissions.
Prediction: Gaethje TKO, Round 3 or 4. I think it's his night.
Betting analysis
| STAND-UP STRIKING OFFENSE | OLIVEIRA | GAETHJE |
|---|---|---|
| Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down) | 6/3 | 5/4 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Head jab accuracy | 24% | 43% |
| Head power accuracy | 40% | 49% |
| Total standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.80 | 0.01 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 41% | 0% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.1 | NA |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 42 | 19 |
| Takedown defense | 57% | 74% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 46% | 61% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.73 | 0.00 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
Parker: Gaethje to win (+145). Oliveira had to fight through adversity in his past two fights to not only get the win but get the finish within two rounds. Will lightning strike a third time for the champ? I cannot confidently say yes. Oliveira's path to victory is on the ground if he can take Gaethje's back. However, Oliveira has become way too comfortable on the feet and was dropped by both Chandler and Poirier in the first round. If Oliveira cannot get the fight to the canvas early, I think Gaethje's leg kicks and punching power will be too much for the champ and he will not be able to recover. Gaethje has been more poised and methodical under the tutelage of Trevor Wittman. I expect Wittman to have a strong game plan for Oliviera and successfully add another champ to his stable.
Kuhn: Oliveira to win (-170); Fight to not go the distance (-500) for parlays. Gaethje is arguably like supercharged Michael Chandler. A fighter with a wrestler's base, who has turned into an aggressive power striker on the feet. Chandler had his moments against Oliveira but eventually was finished by the champ, so it's fair to question whether Gaethje can do slightly better and tip the fight in his favor. Gaethje is certainly tough, and he'll need that resiliency against Oliveira's ever-improving hands. But regardless of Gaethje's takedown defense or wrestling experience, Oliviera is one of the few submission artists who can find finishing angles from anywhere in the octagon. Both men are dangerous while the fight stays standing, combining accuracy with power, but each also has subpar defense. That makes for a lot of finishing potential.
UFC strawweight championship: Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza II
John Wood, Syndicate MMA
Tale Of The Tape
| NAMAJUNAS | ESPARZA | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29 | 34 |
| Height | 5-foot-5 | 5-foot-1 |
| Reach | 65.0" | 63.0" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Last fight | 11/06/2021 | 05/22/2021 |
How Esparza wins: Esparza needs to catch one of Namajunas' kicks and take her down. I do not think Carla will be able to get her to the ground with a straight double leg. I think she will have to look for an opportunity when Namajunas comes forward. When Esparza does get Namajunas to the ground, she has to make it a boring fight. Esparza will not have many opportunities to take Rose down with her skill set, so when it does happen, she will have to settle into her hips, stay active and hope the referee does not stand them up.
Potential X-Factor: Esparza's wrestling.
Prediction: Namajunas by decision. I do not think we are looking at a finish in this one.
Betting analysis
| STAND-UP STRIKING OFFENSE | NAMAJUNAS | ESPARZA |
|---|---|---|
| Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down) | 4/0 | 0/0 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Head jab accuracy | 27% | 15% |
| Head power accuracy | 37% | 32% |
| Total standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.29 | 1.17 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 56% | 37% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 29 | 35 |
| Takedown defense | 52% | 37% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 70% | 67% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
Parker: Over 4.5 rounds (-200). Namajunas has to keep the fight standing where she has the striking advantage. If she allows Esparza to take her down, she will have to use her jiu-jitsu skills to stand up and get back to her feet. Namajunas has won two of her past three fights by split decision, and Esparza has won four of her past five fights by decision, so I expect this fight to go the distance. Namajunas normally values position over submission once the fight hits the floor, and I don't see this going any differently.
Kuhn: Namajunas inside the distance (+175). It's glaring how the performance metrics are almost a clean sweep in favor of Namajunas. That doesn't take into account Namajunas' strength of schedule. She was just 22 years old when she lost to Esparza in her UFC debut and has since run through a gauntlet of the division's toughest talent. That makes her numbers even more impressive. The risk, however, is the same as it was in her first fight with Esparza. Esparza rarely spends more than a minute trading strikes before attempting takedowns, and once she gets the fight to the ground she controls opponents for an average of 1.2 minutes per takedown. Dominant wrestling is the great equalizer in MMA, and Namajunas' 52% takedown defense creates a clear opening for an upset. And yet, Namajunas has proven she can make adjustments and create her own opportunities in a five-round fight. She will have full confidence to best the exchanges on the feet, capable of ending the fight with a single strike or piling up damage over time. Assuming Namajunas can stay off the mat for extended periods, her striking should be what decides the outcome.
Best bets for the rest of the card
Lightweight: Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson
Parker: Chandler to win (-410), by TKO (+110). Ferguson is coming off a year layoff and his third straight loss. He was out-grappled in his past two fights against Beneil Dariush and Oliviera after falling to Gaethje at UFC 249 in May 2020. Ferguson will have to get the fight to the floor and use the wrestling that once made him so successful. If he stands in the pocket and trades punches with Chandler, he will have a miserable night.Chandler also has come up short in his past two fights, but I believe Ferguson is the perfect opponent to get him back on track. Look for Chandler to push forward with strikes and a taxing pace and wear Ferguson down. As long as Chandler stays off his back, I don't see Ferguson presenting any danger to him in this fight.
Lightweight: Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon
Chandler also has come up short in his past two fights, but I believe Ferguson is the perfect opponent to get him back on track. Look for Chandler to push forward with strikes and a taxing pace and wear Ferguson down. As long as Chandler stays off his back, I don't see Ferguson presenting any danger to him in this fight.Kuhn: Cerrone to win (-175); Over 1.5 rounds. Cerrone and Lauzon rank first and fourth, respectively, for most fight night bonuses won, combining for a total of 33. Both fighters know how to finish and put up a valiant fight in defeat. At this stage in their careers, their skills might offset each other. The stylistic matchup is that of a striker versus grappler, with Cerrone having clear advantages on the feet and Lauzon preferring to take things to the ground. But Cerrone has solid wrestling and submission defense, making this fight an uphill battle for Lauzon. Cerrone's striking arsenal will score points and eventually cause damage. The question will be how long Lauzon can withstand being on the receiving end of Cowboy's strikes and if he can find an early submission.
