This is a longer read than most posts. So those of you with ADHD will probably want to skip this thread. This is educational and informative for some who may be new at this stuff.
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I'm sure most posters realize there are betting limits on games early in the week during CFB season. They are pretty low when opening lines come out and gradually increase from day-to-day as the market develops and lines become more "fine tuned". Throughout this time books are basically gathering more and more information from the sharp bettors and can eventually increase the limits as they become more comfortable with the lines they are offering.
Many of you older posters know this but here's an example for "Big" CFB games for a big domestic book:
$5k limit from the open to 4PM on Sunday
Increases to $10k limit on Monday at noon.
Increases to $20k on Tuesdays at noon. etc...
How is this information leveraging?
Making bets early in the week allows you to be able to gain some CLV (closing line value) which should net better results long-term. If you bet late in the week, most of the value has been "worked out of the lines" by sharps making bets throughout the week. By the time the line closes, its usually about a 50/50 proposition on the odds so the earlier you make your bets the more likely you'll realize some value.
I've always wondered when books raise their limits for football wagers throughout the week. I don't bet enough to actually have to be worried about the limits but it does help to know when the limits increase (when sharps can make bigger and bigger plays).
Here is a table of one book that I found on the interwebs:
These limits will vary by book. Clearly you can make larger bets than the limits shown but typically you would have to work that out with the sportsbook manager. Also, this is a domestic book. Off-shore may vary.
This table indicates to me that I should be making CFB plays by Noon Mondays to get the biggest opportunities for value on the lines. As more and more days pass, line value dissipates.
Someone may say, you won't know about injuries early in the week. I find that if there is a question about an injury from the prior weeks games, take the game off your card until you hear more. Usually there aren't that many inuries to key players in CFB that will significantly impact the lines.
Finally, the way the betting limits change throughout the week was interesting to me. I could continue to write several pages about this topic and how I've read sharps get around these limits but that's for another time.
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I'm sure most posters realize there are betting limits on games early in the week during CFB season. They are pretty low when opening lines come out and gradually increase from day-to-day as the market develops and lines become more "fine tuned". Throughout this time books are basically gathering more and more information from the sharp bettors and can eventually increase the limits as they become more comfortable with the lines they are offering.
Many of you older posters know this but here's an example for "Big" CFB games for a big domestic book:
$5k limit from the open to 4PM on Sunday
Increases to $10k limit on Monday at noon.
Increases to $20k on Tuesdays at noon. etc...
How is this information leveraging?
Making bets early in the week allows you to be able to gain some CLV (closing line value) which should net better results long-term. If you bet late in the week, most of the value has been "worked out of the lines" by sharps making bets throughout the week. By the time the line closes, its usually about a 50/50 proposition on the odds so the earlier you make your bets the more likely you'll realize some value.
I've always wondered when books raise their limits for football wagers throughout the week. I don't bet enough to actually have to be worried about the limits but it does help to know when the limits increase (when sharps can make bigger and bigger plays).
Here is a table of one book that I found on the interwebs:
NFL Games | College Footbal "Big Games" | College Footbal "Other Games" | |||||
Timing | Limit | Timing | Limit | Timing | Limit | ||
Open | $5K | Sun 11 AM | $3K | Sun 11 AM | $3K | ||
Mon 1 PM | $10K | Sun 4 PM | $5K | Sun 4 PM | $5K | ||
Tue 1 PM | $20K | Mon Noon | $10K | Tue Noon | $10K | ||
Wed PM | Tue Noon | $20K | Thu Noon | $20K | |||
Thu 1 PM | $30K | Wed Noon | $30K | Day of game | $30K | ||
Fri 1 PM | $50K | Thu Noon | $40K | ||||
Day of Game | $100K | Fri Noon | $60K | ||||
Day of game | $100K |
These limits will vary by book. Clearly you can make larger bets than the limits shown but typically you would have to work that out with the sportsbook manager. Also, this is a domestic book. Off-shore may vary.
This table indicates to me that I should be making CFB plays by Noon Mondays to get the biggest opportunities for value on the lines. As more and more days pass, line value dissipates.
Someone may say, you won't know about injuries early in the week. I find that if there is a question about an injury from the prior weeks games, take the game off your card until you hear more. Usually there aren't that many inuries to key players in CFB that will significantly impact the lines.
Finally, the way the betting limits change throughout the week was interesting to me. I could continue to write several pages about this topic and how I've read sharps get around these limits but that's for another time.
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