Bettor Days
- Joined
- Jun 12, 2021
- Messages
- 5,091
Thursday night NFL best bets: New York Giants at Washington Football Team
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)NFC East rivals will kick off Week 2 of the NFL season when the Giants visit Washington on Thursday night.
New York is coming off a 27-13 home loss to the Broncos, while Washington fell 20-16 at home to the Chargers.
ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh (5-1), Doug Kezirian (2-0), Tyler Fulghum (0-2) and Anita Marks (26-17), Sports Betting Deputy Editor David Bearman (3-2) and Aaron Schatz (5-2) of Football Outsiders have teamed up to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook (as of Wednesday).
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-3, 40.5)
Fortenbaugh: Gibson racked up 90 rushing yards on 20 carries in a Week 1 loss to the Chargers. On the surface, that might seem like a standard day at the office. But take note that this total was achieved despite the fact that Washington held the ball for less than 24 minutes and ran only 49 plays, the fewest of any team in Week 1. To put that in perspective, the Houston Texans ranked dead last in the NFL in plays per game last season and still snapped the ball an average of 58.8 times per contest! The Giants just surrendered an average of 5.9 yards per carry to the Broncos (worst in NFL), and there's little chance Daniel Jones and the Big Blue offense bring the same firepower that Justin Herbert and the Chargers did to Washington last weekend. Gibson will have plenty of opportunities against a more favorable opponent, hence the over play.Pick: Antonio Gibson over 69.5 rushing yards
Bearman: I just don't see a lot of points being scored here. The Giants continue to struggle on offense and until Saquon Barkley is off his pitch count and the offensive line actually blocks someone, they will continue to not be able to put up points. Now they go up against a strong Washington defense that was top five in total and scoring defense last year and held the Chargers' good offense to 20 points last week. I don't see the Giants getting the same 20 points. Add the fact that quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is out and Taylor Heinicke is making his first start since 2018 (on a short week) causes me to not have much faith in the WFT offense, either. Who loves unders? The Giants do, going 13-3-1 to the under since the beginning of last season, the most of any team. Both games went under last year, going 20-19 and 23-20. The total has been bet down from 42.5, but I still like it down to 40. Hold your nose on this one.
Pick: Under 40.5
Marks: Both teams are coming off disappointing losses and have a short work week to make corrections. Each defensive line is looking to rebound in a huge way, and the WFT should have more success against a suspect Giants offensive line that is dealing with poor play from Nate Solder and a knee injury to Shane Lemieux, who will be inactive. Jones will be running for his life Thursday night. Washington is starting Heinicke, with not a lot of time to get into an offensive rhythm. The G-Men had a difficult time covering Noah Fant in Week 1, and their Week 2 assignment with Logan Thomas is no easier. I still expect Barkley to be on a pitch count, and Washington's defense should be able to limit the Giants' backfield all night long. If Barkley is inactive, I can see the Giants utilizing Shepard out of the backfield.
Pick: Logan Thomas TD (+220), Barkley under 49.5 rush yards, Cole Holcomb over 7.5 tackles and assists (-120 DK), over 5.5 totals sacks (-115 DK)
Kezirian: It's wise to avoid overreaction, but one must also stay nimble and respond to misreads. Entering the season, I felt the Giants were a bit undervalued but am no longer married to that opinion. They have significant issues on offense, particularly on the line. Plus, Barkley is not yet healthy and I do not see how this is resolved on a short week. The spread has dropped to 3, and now is the time to jump on Washington. Unfortunately, Fitzpatrick is injured, but I believe in Heinecke enough and that the WFT defense will lead the way.
Pick: Washington -3
Walder: Don't underestimate the downgrade from Fitzpatrick to Heinicke. The former ranked sixth in QBR over the past two seasons behind a porous offensive line. The latter is a 28-year-old with two starts to his name and a career 34 QBR. Fitzpatrick has had more than his fair share of struggles during his career, don't get me wrong. But that's why we projected him as a middle-of-the-pack starting quarterback for 2021. That's miles ahead of Heinicke: Our predicted QB rating system gave the bearded veteran a 98% chance to outperform Heinicke in 2021 in the event they both played. FPI, which likes the Giants a little better than the market, projects Big Blue to successfully convert 1.54 field goals, so with the +120 juice I'll take that, too.
Pick: Giants +3 and Giants over 1.5 field goals (+120)
