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Thursday night NFL best bets: Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALWeek 15 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday with two teams battling for supremacy in the AFC West.
The Chiefs (9-4) have won six straight behind a resurgent defense, while the Chargers (8-5) are coming off back-to-back wins.
ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh (40-36-1, 2-1 last week), Doug Kezirian (14-23-2, 1-0), Tyler Fulghum (23-24, 8-1), Anita Marks (227-199, 25-15) and Erin Dolan, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (27-24-1, 1-2), Stats & Information's Seth Walder (55-47, 4-3), Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (44-37, 3-2) and fantasy/betting analyst Eric Moody (112-105, 12-12) have teamed up to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook (as of Wednesday).
Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 51.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Fortenbaugh: Kansas City was laying 6.5 points at Arrowhead Stadium when these two teams met back in Week 3, so I see value in getting a field goal (the line had moved to Chiefs -4) with Los Angeles considering both the change of venue and the fact that this is a Thursday night game, which means a 1,300-mile flight for the Chiefs. Kansas City's defense has been the toast of the town during the club's six-game winning streak, but who have they stopped? The Giants, Broncos and Raiders (twice) all rank 18th or worse in scoring, Green Bay was without Aaron Rodgers and Dallas was missing wide receiver Amari Cooper in a game in which fellow wideout CeeDee Lamb suffered a concussion. On the other hand, the Chargers are tied for eighth in scoring and tied for third in yards per play. This is going to be a very good football game.Pick: Chargers +3
Schatz: Yes, it's true the Chiefs have been powered by their defense more than their offense in recent weeks. Nonetheless, for the entire season, the Chiefs are still fifth in offensive DVOA, even with all those turnovers at midseason. Meanwhile, the Chargers rank third in offensive DVOA and only 20th on defense. They're still dead last against the run. The Chargers and Chiefs are also sixth and fourth, respectively, in situation-neutral pace. These teams want to pass a lot and they want to run a lot of plays. While the Chiefs have played lower-scoring games recently (except against Las Vegas), the Chargers have gone over their number in three of their past four games, with two other games hitting 51 since their Week 7 bye. The first Chiefs-Chargers matchup had a total of 54 points. We estimate this game will go over the total 67% of the time.
Pick: Over 51.5
Moody: Travis Kelce averages 8.5 targets and 68 receiving yards per game but has averaged just 27 receiving yards per game over the past two weeks. He should bounce back against the Chargers. The Chargers give up 57 receiving yards per game to tight ends, and Kelce had seven receptions for 104 yards against the Chargers back in Week 3. The Chiefs rank eighth in the NFL in scoring, relying on the pass 61.6% of the time.
Playing just 23 snaps last week, Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 13 opportunities and 42 total yards, which was very encouraging. The Chiefs had the game under control by the second quarter against the Raiders, which led to Derrick Gore's 66 rushing yards. Against the Chargers in Week 15, Edwards-Helaire will face a defense that has allowed the second-most opponent rushing yards per game (140.7).
Darrel Williams should remain involved despite Edwards-Helaire's return to the Chiefs. Since Edwards-Helaire returned in Week 11, Williams has averaged four rushing attempts per game. The Chiefs would be wise to exploit the Chargers' run defense.
Picks: Kelce over 65.5 receiving yards (-115), Edwards-Helaire over 54.5 rushing yards (-130), Edwards-Helaire over 13.5 receiving yards (-115), Williams over 14.5 rushing yards (-110)
Marks: The Chargers could be without a few crucial players on Thursday night. LT Rashawn Slater is out, WR Mike Williams, RB Austin Ekeler and TE Jared Cook are dealing with injuries on the offensive side of the ball, and Derwin James and Asante Samuel are hurting on defense.
The Chargers have the second-worst run defense and sport the third-worst conversion rate on third down. Meanwhile, KC's defense has been top three in the NFL over the last six games, allowing only 10 points per game during that span, and has forced multiple turnovers in five straight games. And they haven't allowed a rushing touchdown in six straight games. Offensively, the Chiefs are moving the chains; over 50% of their third downs have resulted in a first down or touchdown over their past six games.
Picks: Chiefs -3 (-110), Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 TD passes (+140), Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions (-130), Ekeler under 53.5 rushing yards (-115), Keenan Allen under 75.5 receiving yards (-120)
Dolan: Things are starting to click for the Chiefs as they prepare for a division matchup against the Chargers. Looking back at the Chargers' 30-24 win at Arrowhead, the Chiefs had four turnovers in that game. I don't see Mahomes, who has thrown only two INTs from Weeks 9 through 14, repeating the same mistakes he made in that game. I think this one will be tight, which is why I loved the Chargers at +4 earlier this week, but it's a pass for me on the spread at Chargers +3.
While both offenses are explosive -- both average 27 points per game this season -- it's the defenses that will decide the outcome of this AFC West matchup. The total has been bet up from 49.5 to 52 as of this writing. With this nearly three-point swing, I am taking under 52, despite these teams combining for 54 points in Week 3. The Chiefs have turned a corner on defense, allowing 21 points per game overall and 10.8 PPG to the last six opponents, second-best to the Patriots during that span. Over the past three games, the Chiefs have allowed opponents just nine points in each game, compared with a Chargers defense that is allowing an average of 24 points. Additionally, unders are 11-5 for Thursday night football games this year and the Chargers are 3-0 to the under against divisional opponents, while the Chiefs have played four straight unders against teams with winning records.
The Chargers also have one of the league's worst run defenses, which the Chiefs will exploit. Edwards-Helaire over 54.5 rushing yards is worth a look. He put up 100 rushing yards on the Chargers in Week 3, is averaging 57.3 rushing yards per game and should be able to hit over this number against a defense that ranks 31st in the league in opponent rushing yards per game.
Picks: Under 52 (at time of bet), Edwards-Helaire over 54.5 rushing yards (-130)
