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Thursday night NFL best bets: Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALWeek 13 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday with the Dallas Cowboys visiting the New Orleans Saints.
The Cowboys (7-4) still sit atop the NFC East but have dropped two straight and three of their last four. The Saints (5-6) have lost four in a row and are expected to move to Taysom Hill at quarterback.
ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh (36-32-1, 2-5 last week), Doug Kezirian (13-21-2, 0-1), Tyler Fulghum (9-23, 0-0) and Anita Marks (186-175, 13-14), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (24-20-1, 1-2), Stats & Information's Seth Walder 49-42 (4-1), Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz (38-32, 2-4) and fantasy/betting analyst Eric Moody (92-87, 7-12) have teamed up to offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook (as of Wednesday).
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 47.5) at New Orleans Saints
Fortenbaugh: I fully expect the Dallas defense to bounce back in a big way following its Thanksgiving debacle against the Raiders for two key reasons: First, the return of pass rusher DeMarcus Lawrence, who hasn't played since Week 1 due to a broken foot. Second, the opponent, as the New Orleans offense is averaging just 20.2 points per game since the loss of quarterback Jameis Winston. Throw in the fact that the Cowboys' coaching staff has been ravaged by a COVID-19 outbreak (no Mike McCarthy on Thursday night) and you have a Dallas outfit that could continue to look out of sync on the offensive side of the ball, as it has quite a bit over the last few weeks. Take note that, including Thanksgiving, the under is 10-2 over the NFL's last 12 Thursday games.Pick: Under 47
Marks: Dallas will be without its head coach as well as tackle Terence Steele for the game due to COVID protocols. Ezekiel Elliott is dealing with a knee issue, and the Cowboys have been struggling to run the ball over their last four games. Meanwhile, the Saints finally made the change at quarterback to Taysom Hill, so expect a much different offensive scheme than what we have seen all season. Hill brings an added rushing element against a Cowboys defense that is allowing 4.4 yards per carry. In four fill-in starts, Hill went 3-1, rushed 39 times and ran for four TDs. The Saints also expect to get RB Alvin Kamara and potentially RT Ryan Ramczyk back in action. Saints defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has had success against Dak Prescott in two meetings, holding him to one TD while intercepting him once and recording eight sacks while allowing just 23 total points. Amari Cooper is expected to be back for the Cowboys but could still be feeling the effects of COVID. CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup should see a high volume of targets with fellow wideout Cedrick Wilson questionable.
Picks: Saints +4.5, under 47.5, Saints +10.5 in 6-point teaser with Cardinals -2, Elliott under 69.5 rushing/receiving yards (-110), Gallup over 47.5 receiving yards (-115), Hill over 30.5 rushing yards (-110)
Moody: Prescott has averaged 279.8 passing yards per game since Week 9 and put on an epic performance against the Raiders last week on Thanksgiving Day without Cooper and Lamb. Lamb is expected back Thursday night (perhaps Cooper as well) to pair with Gallup against the Saints, positioning Prescott for success. Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan and Tom Brady combined to average 267.6 passing yards per game against New Orleans' defense. The odds of Prescott exceeding this prop feel good if Ryan was able to throw for 343 yards against the Saints.
Lamb is averaging 7.7 targets and 75.4 receiving yards per game this season and has accumulated 67.5 receiving yards or more in six of his 10 games. With Lamb's route running and ability to create separation, he matches up well against all of the Saints' cornerbacks.
Currently, tight end Blake Jarwin is on the reserve/COVID-19 list and is suffering from a hip injury. Dalton Schultz has flourished in his absence, averaging six targets and 48.8 receiving yards per game this season. The Saints linebackers will have trouble stopping Schultz in the middle of the field because of the Cowboys' receiving weapons on the outside.
Elliott is still dealing with a bone bruise on his knee, but owner Jerry Jones has insisted that Elliott will be able to handle his usual workload. But Tony Pollard is clearly the most explosive back of the two from a film perspective. Pollard has seven rushing attempts of 15 or more yards this season and averages 5.3 yards per attempt and 3.35 yards after contact. Not bad considering he has only 100 rushing attempts. The Cowboys' offensive line ranks fifth in run-block win rates, so they should have no trouble creating running lanes for Pollard against the Saints. He is poised to score his second touchdown of the 2021 season.
Picks: Prescott over 280.5 passing yards (-115), Lamb over 63.5 receiving yards (-135), Schultz over 41.5 receiving yards (-120), Pollard first touchdown scorer (+900), Pollard to score a touchdown (+160)
Walder: Tre'Quan Smith's expected receiving yards per game this season -- based on air yards, expected completion percentage and expected YAC from NFL Next Gen Stats -- is 32.7. That's a decent bit below the line, so that tilts me toward the under even though he has played more snaps recently. The one factor that would move me off is if I thought the Saints would throw more with the quarterback move from Trevor Siemian to Hill. But I don't. In a small sample of games, the Saints have had a slightly lower dropback rate -- on first down and overall -- in games Hill started at QB than those started by Drew Brees, Jameis Winston, Teddy Bridgewater or Siemian since 2017. And that conclusion holds even if we eliminate garbage time and even if we eliminate games started by Brees.
Pick: Smith under 40.5 receiving yards (-120)
