Think I’m done betting for a while

[djefferis]

So looks like I’m down to a single book still dealing me a bonus (BetUS). I like them - but not to the point of make them a top out.

Just noticed not accruing BetPoints and confirmed they were no longer being offered to me. Welcome to still play - just no promotions. Also noticing limits - especially on live betting have been cut significantly.

Probably time to stop for a while - have the opportunity to step away - have a nice profit in the bank and just enjoy life, let the money earn a little passive income and enjoy life. Still have Robinhood markets and Kalshi available as well as multiple low vig books - but getting harder and harder to grind a profit these days.

Today - I’ve got 2 plays in the NFL Minnesota and Pittsburgh moneyline. Debating playing a little Green Bay - but I’m not sure Cleveland doesn’t surprise here (probably my short sighted homer instincts). Buc’s, Commanders and Seahawks will be games I watch for some movement today and might take positions in.

Otherwise - going to cut back to small “entertainment” bets on DK and let the waters calm and doors to open again for me. DK is the fastest to reopen the bonus floodgates it feels like.

Also still have some pre season MLB future free plays on Guards to win the AL Central and AL pennant - helping make these last few weeks of baseball fun to watch. Now tied for the last WC and a game back of Detroit. If this team makes it - will be interesting to see if they can carry to momentum into October or if the opposition’s talent level will be too much once through the first round of playoffs.

 

[JDS]

So looks like I’m down to a single book still dealing me a bonus (BetUS). I like them - but not to the point of make them a top out.

Just noticed not accruing BetPoints and confirmed they were no longer being offered to me. Welcome to still play - just no promotions. Also noticing limits - especially on live betting have been cut significantly.

Probably time to stop for a while - have the opportunity to step away - have a nice profit in the bank and just enjoy life, let the money earn a little passive income and enjoy life. Still have Robinhood markets and Kalshi available as well as multiple low vig books - but getting harder and harder to grind a profit these days.

Today - I’ve got 2 plays in the NFL Minnesota and Pittsburgh moneyline. Debating playing a little Green Bay - but I’m not sure Cleveland doesn’t surprise here (probably my short sighted homer instincts). Buc’s, Commanders and Seahawks will be games I watch for some movement today and might take positions in.

Otherwise - going to cut back to small “entertainment” bets on DK and let the waters calm and doors to open again for me. DK is the fastest to reopen the bonus floodgates it feels like.

Also still have some pre season MLB future free plays on Guards to win the AL Central and AL pennant - helping make these last few weeks of baseball fun to watch. Now tied for the last WC and a game back of Detroit. If this team makes it - will be interesting to see if they can carry to momentum into October or if the opposition’s talent level will be too much once through the first round of playoffs.

Sounds like you’ve got a smart plan in place. Stepping back with a profit in the bank and letting it earn some passive income is a great call, enjoy the break and the fruits of your labor. Your NFL picks for Minnesota and Pittsburgh ML look solid. I’m curious why you’re leaning Green Bay but feeling the Cleveland homer vibes any key factors swaying you there ?

It’s frustrating that BetUS cut your BetPoints and limits, definitely a sign to cool it for a bit. DK does seem to be the quickest to roll out bonuses again, so focusing on small entertainment bets there makes sense. That MLB future on the Guardians sound fun tied for the last WC spot and a game back is intriguing to follow, good luck with that the rest of the way Jeff.

 

[jjgold]

not gonna make any real money betting sports any longer. That’s the bottom line


Books have too many stop measures now

 

[djefferis]

not gonna make any real money betting sports any longer. That’s the bottom line


Books have too many stop measures now

It’s possible - just harder.

It’s already a tough enough task to outsmart professional bookmakers and 10 million other bettors at football. Tough but not impossible - especially given the shift in books to playing follow the leader instead of doing their own homework.

That’s also what makes it tougher though - no one dares hang an opinionated line these days for fear of getting crushed. No point in shopping around for value - those days HAVE been wiped thanks to technology and corporate blandness. Now you have to do your own homework and rely on the data you collect. The “easy” ways are over - it’s now back to the basics that made the most successful bookmakers successful way back when.

I’m fortunate to have been exposed to both some of the disciples of those old school minds and modern actuaries. I’m also stuck with a mind that cannot do math beyond the 5th grade level. Hang around sharp people and some of their wisdom wears off - that’s what I’ve picked up on most and these forums reinforce that.

 

[jamesy2422]

i like your 2 plays. i feel like everyone thinks the browns will keep it close but then the pack still covers.

i find it so funny when books cut points. looks so tacky. they act like they are giving away gold. they want action but are quick to limit any perks when they already havr a built in vig.

 

[djefferis]

Browns have looked better both weeks this season and with bringing in Judkins - maybe they get a spark on offense they need.

The defense has never been a problem and Green Bay is playing over their heads. Browns at home on a beautiful day in NE Ohio - realize they are playing for their season here. 0-3 means another likely losing season - another rebuilding year and a lot of guys looking for landing spots soon. Win this one and they travel to Detroit team thats better but beatable right now before getting a 5 game stretch with 3 AFC Least opponents who aren’t Buffalo - thus all winnable.

5-4 is easily within the Browns reach if they win today - 2-7 is possible if they lose. They know they need to win now and take advantage of this stretch before facing the division leader again. A little confidence could go along way for this group.

 

[jjgold]

It’s possible - just harder.

It’s already a tough enough task to outsmart professional bookmakers and 10 million other bettors at football. Tough but not impossible - especially given the shift in books to playing follow the leader instead of doing their own homework.

That’s also what makes it tougher though - no one dares hang an opinionated line these days for fear of getting crushed. No point in shopping around for value - those days HAVE been wiped thanks to technology and corporate blandness. Now you have to do your own homework and rely on the data you collect. The “easy” ways are over - it’s now back to the basics that made the most successful bookmakers successful way back when.

I’m fortunate to have been exposed to both some of the disciples of those old school minds and modern actuaries. I’m also stuck with a mind that cannot do math beyond the 5th grade level. Hang around sharp people and some of their wisdom wears off - that’s what I’ve picked up on most and these forums reinforce that.

no need for a line service anymore all the lines the same , need to bet openers to gain and edge

 

[pete0]

@djefferis

have u tried Bmaker or Caesers ?


i would love nothing more than to hang around sharps like u & JJ
I want to learn

 

[BigJay]

not gonna make any real money betting sports any longer. That’s the bottom line


Books have too many stop measures now

 

[djefferis]

@djefferis

have u tried Bmaker or Caesers ?


i would love nothing more than to hang around sharps like u & JJ
I want to learn

BM is the book who cut off Betpoints for me finally. I’ve often send BM and BO are the only 2 US facing offshores I’d trust with large balances. No Betpoints makes BM less valuable - BO rewards have slipped tremendously as I began taking payouts there. B105 is in the mix - but with lower rebates.

I’m not “sharp” at least by my definition - you don’t need to be the smartest capper to make money - just capitalized, on the look out and willing to take advantage of opportunities when they arise. My goal has always been find opportunities- make a little and then use that small profit to take the risk.

Plenty of excellent cappers around here to learn from and many who post their plays. Feels like many have specific sports they are strongest at - but we have a few who excel at just about anything they touch.

JJ is simply forum legend - as much as I make fun of his ability to pick losers and mush any side he takes - his contributions to gambling social media are undeniable. He was the original “influencer” and helped define the niche.

I’ll still be around - just curtailing my risk taking. Time to sit back a while - enjoy the rewards of my work and stop working so hard at this.

 

[jamesy2422]

BO rewards and bonuses have slipped drastically. I also do not like that they add fees on deposits other than crypto. And the fees are decent too. So no bonuses and then fees.

One of the big attractive parts of Bookmaker is the bet points cause they don't have some of the variety of other places. I still like them the best though.

I don't find one domestic book that has a good loyalty program. Fanatics is close but the rates are difference on earning freeplay cash than they used to be.