The Top 25 Rookie NFL Quarterbacks Over Last 25 Years

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Ranking the best rookie QB seasons of the past 25 years​

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12. Baker Mayfield, 2018, Browns (585 adj. DYAR)​

Key stats: 51.2 QBR, 3,725 passing yards, 27 TDs, 14 INTs, 63.8% completion rate

Mayfield took over for an injured Tyrod Taylor in Week 3 and then got his first start in Week 4, but he really turned it on in the second half of the season. That began when Todd Haley was fired as offensive coordinator after Week 8 and replaced with Freddie Kitchens. With Kitchens running his offense, Mayfield started with a 297-yard performance against Kansas City in Week 9. Mayfield went from a 58% completion percentage with 6.6 yards per attempt in Weeks 3-8 to a 68% completion percentage with 8.6 yards per attempt from Week 9 onward. The Browns went 5-3 in those games.


It's hard to remember now just how much promise it seemed like Mayfield, Kitchens and the Browns had going into the 2019 season. They ended up 6-10, and Mayfield fell from 12th in passing DYAR to 25th.

 

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11. Mac Jones, 2021, Patriots (589 adj. DYAR)​

Key stats: 56.9 QBR, 3,801 passing yards, 22 TDs, 13 INTs, 67.6% completion rate

Yes, Jones was good as a rookie. ESPN's QBR, which attempts to adjust for things out of the quarterback's control, ranked him 16th in 2021, ahead of Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts.

One criticism Jones has gotten is that he feasted on an easy schedule, but that's not true. The Patriots played an average schedule of opposing pass defenses that year. They had a 45-7 victory over the Browns, who ranked sixth in pass defense DVOA that season. Jones had a positive DVOA against the top-10 pass defenses he faced. He averaged a very reasonable 7.1 yards per pass in those seven games compared to 7.4 yards per pass in other games.

In all of NFL history, there has never been another quarterback with a career path like Jones. Ther ha's never been another quarterback who was so good as a rookie and then so bad in his second and third seasons without injuries being involved. Mayfield's second year was similar, but then he bounced back to lead the Browns to the playoffs in his third season. Robert Griffin III declined substantially after a great rookie year, but injuries were to blame.


To find a player similar to Jones, you have to go to other positions. The best comparisons for Jones might be wide receivers such as Michael Clayton and Anthony Miller, who saw their careers collapse after great (Clayton) or promising (Miller) rookie seasons.

 

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10. Deshaun Watson, 2017, Texans (644 adj. DYAR)​

Key stats: 83.7 QBR, 1,699 passing yards, 19 TDs, 8 INTs, 61.8% completion rate; 269 rushing yards, 2 TDs

Because DYAR is a total value stat, it balances quality with quantity. Some of these quarterbacks were exceptional in short doses, while others were less exceptional but played well for a whole season. Watson is more of the former. Watson played in only seven games as a rookie before tearing his right ACL in a non-contact practice injury. He finished the season ranked seventh among all quarterbacks in passing DVOA (min. 200 passes) and added 35 carries for 270 yards and two touchdowns.

The Texans inexplicably went into the first week of the season with Tom Savage as their starting quarterback, but Savage was pulled halfway through that Week 1 game and Watson was given the job. He struggled with just 125 yards against the Bengals in his first start, then exploded with 301 yards against the Patriots in a 36-33 loss.

Watson had a passer rating over 100 in his last four starts, highlighted by a huge 403-yard game with four passing touchdowns against Seattle in Week 8. It was the last game before his injury.

 

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9. Peyton Manning, 1998, Colts (724 adj. DYAR)​

Key stats: 3,739 passing yards, 26 TDs, 28 INTs, 56.7% completion rate

You'll often hear that any quarterback can overcome a bad rookie season because after all, Manning led the league in interceptions (28). That's true, but Manning didn't have a bad rookie season. He ranked fifth in the league in passing touchdowns and 13th in net yards per pass attempt. He did this despite playing the NFL's second-toughest schedule of opposing pass defenses in 1998. Remember, this is back when the Colts were still in the AFC East. The two best pass defenses by DVOA that season were the Dolphins and the Jets, with the Bills ranked seventh and the Patriots 13th.

Manning had 135 passing DYAR in his first seven games, then 572 passing DYAR in his final nine games after the bye week. His completion rate and touchdown rate both went up in the second half of the season, and his six games with a passer rating of 75 or higher all came in Week 7 or later.

 

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8. Justin Herbert, 2020, Chargers (799 adj. DYAR)​

Key stats: 62.6 QBR, 4,336 passing yards, 31 TDs, 10 INTs, 66.6% completion rate; 234 rushing yards, 5 TDs

Herbert took over in Week 2 after a Chargers team doctor accidentally punctured Tyrod Taylor's lung just before kickoff while trying to administer a painkiller. Herbert immediately looked good, taking the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs to overtime in his first game.

The Chargers lost many one-score games that season, but Herbert played well most of the year. He did have a bit of a dip at midseason, with negative DYAR between Week 10 and Week 14, but then he rebounded with four good games and four Chargers wins to end the season on a high note. Herbert finished the season eighth in total passing DYAR, just ahead of a number of veterans including Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson.

 

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7. Cam Newton, 2011, Panthers (801 adj. DYAR)​

Key stats: 56.6 QBR, 4,051 passing yards, 21 TDs, 17 INTs, 60% completion rate; 706 rushing yards, 14 TDs

Newton is the reason I ordered this list by adjusted DYAR and not just by passing DYAR. Newton would rank just 15th among rookie seasons since 1998 if we looked solely at passing value. However, he led all quarterbacks in rushing value in his rookie season, and his talents completely changed the Carolina ground game.

Newton carried the ball 117 times for 706 yards and 14 touchdowns (these numbers remove kneel downs). The Carolina run offense went from dead last in DVOA in 2010 to first in 2011 with the second-highest run DVOA for any offense since 1981. (Only the 2000 Rams were better.)

This wasn't just about Newton's own value on his own runs. DeAngelo Williams went from 4.1 yards per carry to 5.4 yards per carry, and Jonathan Stewart went from 4.3 yards per carry to 5.4 yards per carry as well.

Newton passed the ball a ton early in the 2011 season, with more than 370 passing yards in three of his first four games. Then he didn't get over 300 passing yards again all season because he was throwing the ball less, even though he did have some efficient games later. In Week 16 against Tampa Bay, for example, Newton threw only 17 passes but completed 12 of them for 171 yards and three touchdowns, with only one sack and no interceptions. And, of course, he also had six carries for 65 yards and a rushing touchdown in that Christmas Eve contest.

Overall, Newton ranked 15th in passing DYAR, which is still pretty impressive for a rookie, even without considering his rushing value.

 

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6. Matt Ryan, 2008, Falcons (927 adj. DYAR)​

Key stats: 68.8 QBR, 3,440 passing yards, 16 TDs, 11 INTs, 61.1% completion rate; 104 rushing yards, TD

Two rookie quarterbacks led their teams to the postseason in 2008, and Ryan was the better of the two even if Joe Flacco is the one who has had the longer career.

Ryan threw "only" 16 passing touchdowns, but that hides just how efficient he was. He ranked third out of all quarterbacks with 7.4 net yards per pass attempt in 2008. He did this against a difficult schedule, with half of his games against teams that ranked in the top 10 for pass defense DVOA.

Ryan also got better as the season progressed. His best game by DYAR came in Week 6 against the Bears, when he went 22-of-30 for 301 yards with a touchdown and no picks or sacks just before the bye week. Even if you split the season after that game, however, he averaged 47 passing DYAR per game before the bye week and 73 passing DYAR per game afterward. He went from 7.2 yards per pass before the bye to 8.3 yards per pass after.

Ryan would rank second on our list if we counted only passing value, but he had negative rushing value in 2008. He failed on a couple of quarterback sneaks and had two fumbles on scrambles late in the season.

 

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5. Robert Griffin III, 2012, Commanders (956 adj. DYAR)​

Key stats: 68 QBR, 3,200 passing yards, 20 TDs, 5 INTs, 65.6% completion rate; 815 rushing yards, 7 TDs

This was probably the best season ever for rookie quarterback performance, with Russell Wilson coming up higher on this list and Andrew Luck just missing an appearance.

All three players combined quality passing stats with a lot of rushing value. Griffin, for example, ran the ball 120 times for 815 yards and seven touchdowns, although he also had seven fumbles on runs, so he finished only fifth in rushing DYAR among quarterbacks that season. No rookie quarterback has ever had more rushing yards than Griffin did in 2012.

As a passer, Griffin completed about 66% of his attempts and led the NFL with 8.1 yards per attempt. He also led the league with a 1.3% interception rate, which is remarkable for a rookie, and he took only 30 sacks. Griffin was eventually voted Rookie of the Year over Wilson and Luck.

Like Ryan and others on this list, Griffin didn't hit any kind of rookie wall. He went from 36 passing DYAR per game before Washington's Week 10 bye to 57 passing DYAR per game afterward.

Of course, he was never able to duplicate this season in large part because of knee injuries, which started with an LCL sprain in Week 14 and got much worse when Griffin tore his ACL and LCL in Washington's playoff loss to Seattle.

 

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4. Ben Roethlisberger, 2004, Steelers (993 adj. DYAR)​

Key stats: 2,621 passing yards, 17 TDs, 11 INTs, 66.4% completion rate; 144 rushing yards, TD

The No. 7 overall pick first took the field after a third-quarter injury to starter Tommy Maddox in a Week 2 loss to Baltimore. Beginning the next week against Miami, Roethlisberger led the Steelers to 13 straight wins, rested in Week 17 with many other Pittsburgh starters and then added an overtime win in the divisional round before the Steelers fell to the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Maddox never got the job back, and Roethlisberger held on as the Steelers' starting quarterback for 18 years.

Roethlisberger ranked second in the NFL with 8.9 yards per pass attempt and was fourth with a completion rate of 66%. He had 17 touchdown passes with 11 interceptions. One problem was taking sacks. Thirty sacks doesn't sound like a lot, but that was a 9.2% sack rate because he had fewer dropbacks than other starting quarterbacks.

Speaking of which, one of the secrets to Roethlisberger's success is that the Steelers controlled what he had to do with a strong running game. They had a very low pass-to-run ratio, and Roethlisberger had just 326 dropbacks in 14 games. That average of 23.3 dropbacks per game is the lowest among the quarterbacks on our list, with Russell Wilson second lowest at 27.0 dropbacks per game and Herbert the highest all the way up at 41.5.

Roethlisberger excelled despite a difficult schedule. The Steelers faced the fifth-hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses in 2004. He missed Week 1 against their easiest opponent, No. 30 Oakland, and Week 17 against their hardest opponent, No. 1 Buffalo. But half of the 14 games he played came against top-10 pass defenses by DVOA, including against division rivals Baltimore (second) and Cincinnati (sixth).

 

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3. C.J. Stroud, 2023, Texans (estimated 1161 adj. DYAR)​

Key stats: 54.7 QBR, 3,631 passing yards, 20 TDs, 5 INTs, 62.4% completion rate; 143 rushing yards, 3 TDs

This estimate comes from the 13 games Stroud has played so far, prorated to assume he'll play the final two games of the season. Right now, he ranks seventh in passing DYAR at 938 despite missing the past two games. He has more passing DYAR than Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts, among other star quarterbacks.

Stroud is third in the league with 8.2 yards per pass attempt, trailing only Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa. He also has the lowest interception rate at 1.1%. He's thrown only five picks all season.

It's certainly possible Stroud will not reach this level in his final two games, however, as he had slowed down in his previous four games before his concussion. In the first nine games of the season, Stroud averaged 108 passing DYAR per game. In Weeks 11 to 14, he averaged minus-9 passing DYAR per game. The issue was less a drop in yards per attempt and more a drop in touchdowns with an increase in sacks.

 

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2. Russell Wilson, 2012, Seahawks (1180 adj. DYAR)​

Key stats: 74.8 QBR, 3,118 passing yards, 26 TDs, 10 INTs, 64.1% completion rate; 489 rushing yards, 4 TDs

The Seahawks had spent free agent money on former Green Bay backup Matt Flynn, so folks were somewhat surprised when this third-round rookie won the starting job in training camp instead. By the end of the season, nobody was surprised by that decision, as Wilson made the Pro Bowl and led Seattle to an 11-5 record and a playoff win.

Wilson completed 64% of his passes and was fourth in the league with 7.9 yards per pass attempt. He threw 26 passing touchdowns with just 10 interceptions and then added 94 carries for 489 yards and four rushing touchdowns.

Like many of our other top rookies, Wilson got much better later in the season. The difference with Wilson is really substantial. In the first seven games, Wilson averaged just 6 passing DYAR per game and the Seahawks never reached 28 points. In the final nine games of the regular season, Wilson averaged 92 passing DYAR per game and the Seahawks scored at least 28 points five different times.

Why is Wilson listed above Griffin on our list when Griffin beat him for Offensive Rookie of the Year? Schedule strength.

Washington played the No. 26 toughest schedule of opposing pass defenses that season based on DVOA. Seattle played the second-hardest schedule. All four NFC West teams ranked in the top seven for pass defense DVOA that season, and the Seahawks also faced the No. 1 Bears, No. 9 Jets, No. 11 Panthers and No. 12 Packers. Wilson played only one game against one of the eight worst pass defenses of that season, a 50-17 victory over Buffalo (ranked 26th).

 

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1. Dak Prescott, 2016, Cowboys (1556 adj. DYAR)​

Key stats: 77.6 QBR, 3,667 passing yards, 23 TDs, 4 INTs, 67.8% completion rate; 282 rushing yards, 6 TDs

Prescott was originally the third-string quarterback when he showed up as a rookie fourth-round pick in 2016. He moved up the depth chart when Kellen Moore broke his leg in the first week of training camp and then became the starter with Tony Romo's back injury in Week 3 of the preseason. And then he shocked the football world by leading the Cowboys to a 13-3 record as one of the league's best starting quarterbacks.

Prescott's standard stats for 2016 are fantastic. He ranked fourth in the league in completing 68% of his passes. He ranked fourth with 7.3 net yards per pass. He threw 23 touchdown passes and somehow ended up with just four interceptions. That's an interception rate below 1%. He also took only 25 sacks, a very low number for a rookie. He finished fourth among all quarterbacks in passing DYAR; no other rookie has ever finished higher than seventh.

As a runner, he was efficient with nearly half his carries converting for a touchdown or a new set of downs.

Prescott's best game of the season came in a 27-17 win over Baltimore in Week 11. He completed 75% of his passes for 301 yards and three touchdowns with no picks and only one short sack of 2 lost yards. He was good in the playoffs as well, with 302 passing yards and three touchdowns against Green Bay. The Dallas defense was not as good, however, and the Cowboys lost 34-31.

 

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HONORABLE MENTION (PRE-1998)​

If we go back more than 25 years, Dan Marino would be seventh on this list with 853 adjusted DYAR in 1983. Marino's passing DVOA (value per play) for the Dolphins is the highest of any rookie quarterback with at least 200 pass attempts, but he started only nine games in his rookie season. Remarkably, he finished third in the MVP race despite the limited playing time.

Even further back, before we have play-by-play records, rookie Greg Cook led the AFL in 1969 with 9.4 yards per attempt (which would have also led the NFL) and an 88.3 passer rating. He did this despite tearing his rotator cuff in Week 3 against Kansas City. The rotator cuff deteriorated after the season and Cook missed the next three year. He played again only in a failed 1973 comeback season.