The Players INFO - Turning into golf INTRO

[RudyRuder]

Long discussion on golf gambling

1.5% of worldwide bets are golf but they are actually going to invest into gambling and gambling info via shot link

What a golfer makes per hole is already a thing at some sites and their hope is to hopefully have in game betting, selling shot link info to sports betting sites. Will be great and a perfect thing for Discord chat.

 

[RudyRuder]

Also do you guys know how to post stats from tables? For instance, I can post BMR odds listings just fine:

Time	ROT	NBAMon Mar 07, 2022		WAGERS	OPENER

NBA​

LIVE

563

Atlanta

44

2nd 5:36

-7 -110

-7½ -110

-7½ -112

-8 -102

-7½ -110

-

-

-7½ -110

-7½ -112

564

Detroit

42

+7 -110

+7½ -110

+7½ -108

+8 -108

+7½ -110

-

-

+7½ -110

+7½ -108

but im trying to post some golf stats and it turns out like this:


POS
PLAYER NAME
SCORE
THRU
TODAY
SG PUTT
SG ARG
SG APP
SG OTT
SG T2G
SG TOTAL
1

SCHEFFLER SCOTTIE
-5
F
E
+1.06
+0.31
+2.02
-0.09
+2.23
+3.32


I don't want to take a screenshot, upload somewhere, then post. Is there some easy way to make it a table format? I've tried to use the Add a table thing, but it doesnt copy each piece of info into each block

 

[BobbyFK]

Where are you trying to source the data from Rudy? Maybe paste it into Excel? I’m on the road right now but I’ll take a look when I get home

 

[pokerintherear]

justin thomas is the winner

 

[RudyRuder]

Player Name	Fav	Salary	Pos	Rnds	SG: TOT	SG: T2G	SG: BS	SG: SG	SG: OTT	SG: APP	SG: ARG	SG: P	DK Pts
Scottie Scheffler	9,200.0	12:45pm	4	Strokes Gained Total: 13.2 Per Round: 3.3 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">3.3	SG: T2G Total: 8.9 Per Round: 2.2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.2	SG: Ball Striking Total: 7.7 Per Round: 1.9 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.9	SG: Short Game Total: 5.5 Per Round: 1.4 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.4	SG: OTT Total: -0.4 Per Round: -0.1 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-0.1	SG: Approach Total: 8.1 Per Round: 2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">2	SG: Around Total: 1.2 Per Round: 0.3 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.3	SG: Putting Total: 4.3 Per Round: 1.1 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.1	DK Points Gained Total: 27.2 Avg Pts / Round: 6.8 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">6.8
Jon Rahm	11,100.0	7:51am*	4	Strokes Gained Total: 6.2 Per Round: 1.5 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.5	SG: T2G Total: 10.1 Per Round: 2.5 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.5	SG: Ball Striking Total: 11.4 Per Round: 2.9 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.9	SG: Short Game Total: -5.2 Per Round: -1.3 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-1.3	SG: OTT Total: 4.5 Per Round: 1.1 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.1	SG: Approach Total: 6.9 Per Round: 1.7 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.7	SG: Around Total: -1.3 Per Round: -0.3 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-0.3	SG: Putting Total: -3.9 Per Round: -1 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-1	DK Points Gained Total: 5.7 Avg Pts / Round: 1.4 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.4
Talor Gooch	7,200.0	12:23pm*	4	Strokes Gained Total: 10.2 Per Round: 2.5 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.5	SG: T2G Total: 9.2 Per Round: 2.3 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.3	SG: Ball Striking Total: 6.6 Per Round: 1.7 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.7	SG: Short Game Total: 3.6 Per Round: 0.9 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.9	SG: OTT Total: 0.3 Per Round: 0.1 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.1	SG: Approach Total: 6.3 Per Round: 1.6 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.6	SG: Around Total: 2.5 Per Round: 0.6 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.6	SG: Putting Total: 1 Per Round: 0.3 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.3	DK Points Gained Total: 20.7 Avg Pts / Round: 5.2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">5.2
Luke List	7,200.0	1:18pm*	2	Strokes Gained Total: -2.4 Per Round: -1.2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-1.2	SG: T2G Total: 4.8 Per Round: 2.4 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.4	SG: Ball Striking Total: 4.7 Per Round: 2.4 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.4	SG: Short Game Total: -7.1 Per Round: -3.6 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-3.6	SG: OTT Total: 1.8 Per Round: 0.9 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.9	SG: Approach Total: 2.9 Per Round: 1.5 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.5	SG: Around Total: 0 Per Round: 0 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0	SG: Putting Total: -7.1 Per Round: -3.6 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-3.6	DK Points Gained Total: 1.5 Avg Pts / Round: 0.7 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.7
Max Homa	7,500.0	1:07pm	4	Strokes Gained Total: 6.2 Per Round: 1.5 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.5	SG: T2G Total: 7.9 Per Round: 2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">2	SG: Ball Striking Total: 7.3 Per Round: 1.8 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.8	SG: Short Game Total: -1.1 Per Round: -0.3 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-0.3	SG: OTT Total: 1.6 Per Round: 0.4 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.4	SG: Approach Total: 5.7 Per Round: 1.4 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.4	SG: Around Total: 0.6 Per Round: 0.1 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.1	SG: Putting Total: -1.7 Per Round: -0.4 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-0.4	DK Points Gained Total: 6.2 Avg Pts / Round: 1.6 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.6
Billy Horschel	8,100.0	1:07pm	4	Strokes Gained Total: 12.2 Per Round: 3 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">3	SG: T2G Total: 7.6 Per Round: 1.9 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.9	SG: Ball Striking Total: 5.9 Per Round: 1.5 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.5	SG: Short Game Total: 6.3 Per Round: 1.6 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.6	SG: OTT Total: 1 Per Round: 0.2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.2	SG: Approach Total: 4.9 Per Round: 1.2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.2	SG: Around Total: 1.7 Per Round: 0.4 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.4	SG: Putting Total: 4.6 Per Round: 1.2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.2	DK Points Gained Total: 27.2 Avg Pts / Round: 6.8 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">6.8
Martin Laird	6,800.0	7:18am	4	Strokes Gained Total: 0.2 Per Round: 0 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0	SG: T2G Total: 3 Per Round: 0.7 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.7	SG: Ball Striking Total: 2.7 Per Round: 0.7 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.7	SG: Short Game Total: -2.5 Per Round: -0.6 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-0.6	SG: OTT Total: -2.1 Per Round: -0.5 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-0.5	SG: Approach Total: 4.8 Per Round: 1.2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.2	SG: Around Total: 0.3 Per Round: 0.1 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.1	SG: Putting Total: -2.8 Per Round: -0.7 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-0.7	DK Points Gained Total: -3.8 Avg Pts / Round: -0.9 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-0.9
Hideki Matsuyama	9,600.0	7:40am*	4	Strokes Gained Total: 5.2 Per Round: 1.3 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.3	SG: T2G Total: 6.3 Per Round: 1.6 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.6	SG: Ball Striking Total: 5.9 Per Round: 1.5 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.5	SG: Short Game Total: -0.7 Per Round: -0.2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-0.2	SG: OTT Total: 1.1 Per Round: 0.3 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.3	SG: Approach Total: 4.8 Per Round: 1.2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.2	SG: Around Total: 0.4 Per Round: 0.1 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.1	SG: Putting Total: -1.1 Per Round: -0.3 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-0.3	DK Points Gained Total: 11.2 Avg Pts / Round: 2.8 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.8
Viktor Hovland	10,100.0	7:51am*	4	Strokes Gained Total: 12.2 Per Round: 3 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">3	SG: T2G Total: 10.1 Per Round: 2.5 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.5	SG: Ball Striking Total: 9.2 Per Round: 2.3 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.3	SG: Short Game Total: 3 Per Round: 0.8 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.8	SG: OTT Total: 4.7 Per Round: 1.2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.2	SG: Approach Total: 4.5 Per Round: 1.1 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.1	SG: Around Total: 0.9 Per Round: 0.2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.2	SG: Putting Total: 2.1 Per Round: 0.5 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.5	DK Points Gained Total: 24.7 Avg Pts / Round: 6.2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">6.2
Danny Lee	6,000.0	1:29pm*	4	Strokes Gained Total: -1.8 Per Round: -0.5 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-0.5	SG: T2G Total: 4.6 Per Round: 1.1 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.1	SG: Ball Striking Total: 6.1 Per Round: 1.5 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.5	SG: Short Game Total: -7.9 Per Round: -2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-2	SG: OTT Total: 1.8 Per Round: 0.4 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.4	SG: Approach Total: 4.3 Per Round: 1.1 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.1	SG: Around Total: -1.5 Per Round: -0.4 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-0.4	SG: Putting Total: -6.4 Per Round: -1.6 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-1.6	DK Points Gained Total: -12.3 Avg Pts / Round: -3.1 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">-3.1
Gary Woodland	7,400.0	8:24am	4	Strokes Gained Total: 11.2 Per Round: 2.8 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">2.8	SG: T2G Total: 4.9 Per Round: 1.2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.2	SG: Ball Striking Total: 4 Per Round: 1 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1	SG: Short Game Total: 7.1 Per Round: 1.8 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.8	SG: OTT Total: 0.2 Per Round: 0 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0	SG: Approach Total: 3.9 Per Round: 1 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1	SG: Around Total: 0.9 Per Round: 0.2 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">0.2	SG: Putting Total: 6.3 Per Round: 1.6 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">1.6	DK Points Gained Total: 19.2 Avg Pts / Round: 4.8 " style="box-sizing: border-box;">4.8

 

[RudyRuder]

practicing...doesnt look any better


copying to excel didnt work either

 

[RudyRuder]

Weather: Only focus on wind in Florida because the rain is usually thunderstorms which is stoppage of play. Rain matters more in San Francisco or UK for The Open where they have to play through it. Although Sawgrass has a sub air system on the greens, it might even be better to get the thunderstorm tee times because then the conditions are a bit softer when play resumes. If there is any wind, it is usually out with the storm.



Morning/afternoon tee times: Due to the above, I don’t think the morning afternoon tee times matter that much in Florida unless the wind is up one of the two days. Here is an interesting article about the split in general: The impact of the luck of the draw (pgatour.com) . Being able to fix spike marks has cut this split to be more equal, but the dew in the mornings and dryness of the afternoons will always favor morning groups. That’s why if I am playing heads up fantasy or betting on a players score/birdies made, I tend to favor the morning players if all other things are equal.



Course: Pete Dye architect…which usually means shorter course than average and smaller greens. Justin Thomas won last year, but Lee Westwood and Brian Harman finished 2nd and T3, respectively. You’ve had guys like Fred Funk win and Jim Furyk finishing 2nd. Precision iron play is the most important here. The top 10 last year gained over 3times as many strokes gained approach than off the tee shots gained. This course is very comparable to Harbor Town (Pete Dye designed, so there is a crossover when you are looking for golfers to play here). For instance Webb Simpson won the Players (2018) and RBC (2020). Jim Furyk Players 2nd (2019) won RBC two times (2010 and 2015). Matt Kuchar won Players (2012) and RBC (2014). Plenty of guys show up like that.

Putting stats are important, but I haven’t heard what the greens will have. TifEagle Bermuda in the summer, but it is poa trivialis/bent in the winter. Without someone stating exactly what is on the greens, it is hard to gauge this stat. Morons will just say it is Bermuda, but I highly doubt that is fully grown in by this week in March.



Players: For instance, Doug Ghim loses .5464 strokes putting on Bermuda, but actually gains .185 on poa annua (different than trivialis, I know)—Just showing the comparison..almost 3/4th of a shot is lost per round depending on the putting surface.

Jordan Spieth is strong across the board putting gaining .298 on Bermuda and .332 on Bent. However, when asked about the course a year or two ago, he said he can’t figure out the greens (lost .4 strokes per round—though his iron play was worse, he still finished 20th).

Sergio Garcia – think I read he has made 18 straight cuts here and 20 out of 22 all time



So I think the key stat will be iron play.

Take a look at last week’s shots gained: approach top 10 in order:

Scheffler, Rahm, Gooch, Homa, Horschel, Laird, Matsuyama, Hovland, Lee, Woodland



Last year’s Players shots gained: approach top 10 in order:

Garcia, Kim, Hoffman, Gooch, Thoma, Spieth, Dechambeau, Reavie, Conners, Ghim



Last 2 years on all Pete Dye courses shots gained: approach top 10 in order:

Casey, Ancer, Zalatoris, Conners, Grillo, Henley, Ghim, Varner III, Garcia, Cink









So, I lean towards guys like Zalatoris, Conners, Ancer, and Casey

 

[RudyRuder]

Ancer only gained 0.9 strokes at the Genesis though and his iron play lately hasnt been what it was a year ago

If Conners could putt, he would be one of the best golfers in the world. He's losing a shot per round on poa greens but bermuda is his best surface only losing 0.144 per round

-----------if you change last weeks metrics to shots gained tee to green: conners is 1st

 

[RudyRuder]

nope

 

[RudyRuder]

i assume my graph didnt load?

 

[RudyRuder]

 

[RudyRuder]

that took way too long

 

[RudyRuder]

ok im getting better


tpc results last year;

 

[RudyRuder]

Below is useful for betting hole by hole and picking your players for Draftkings fantasy golf (3 birdies in a row) This week teeing off 1 is better since 9 and 11 are par 5s playing under par...So if you enter a daily fantasy golf, if everything else is equal, you'd want your players teeing off 1, not 10

 

[RudyRuder]

max of last 50 rounds ranked by shots gain app at TPC Sawgrass and Harbour Town..note GOOCH is 1st but only played 2 total rounds ---the Players in 2019

 

[RudyRuder]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ I copied the above wrong

What a weird turn of events, Max Homa is 1st

 

[Tanko]

There is a crap-load of information to absorb here. It looks like the first table (Post #5) is some kind of DraftKings data table. Hard to read and understand.


Summary what I've learned from first pass:

1. For match play consider tee time (morning is more leveraging than afternoon)
2. Green types impact player performance quite a bit (bermuda vs bent). Need to find out what web sites provides the player performance stats for this.
3. Key factors to compare golfers: Greens in Regulation, Sand Saves, Fairways Gained
4. Utilize data from similar golf courses to gain insight into who plays well on them (e.g. Pete Dye architecture).

I'm sure there is more but it was a lot of info.

From the data tables presented, if I had to pick one golfer, I'd go with Ghim but more review of the data is needed. Maybe look at most recent performance as well.

What did I miss Rudy? A lot I can assume. But, it gets me started on a sport I have no familiarity with.

 

[Enikk]

Thank-you. For sure will be using this in my arsenal of finding good match-ups. I see a bunch of players I enjoy fading (But are popular often over priced) at the bottom of your charts.

How the fvck are you posting those graphs. I have been spending hours trying to get my Leaderboards posted from excel. It was so much easier in past. I am just leaving link now.

 

[Enikk]

Oh how I loved betting on Jim Furyk match-ups. One of my all time favs for sure.

 

[RudyRuder]

There is a crap-load of information to absorb here. It looks like the first table (Post #5) is some kind of DraftKings data table. Hard to read and understand.


Summary what I've learned from first pass:

1. For match play consider tee time (morning is more leveraging than afternoon)
2. Green types impact player performance quite a bit (bermuda vs bent). Need to find out what web sites provides the player performance stats for this.
3. Key factors to compare golfers: Greens in Regulation, Sand Saves, Fairways Gained
4. Utilize data from similar golf courses to gain insight into who plays well on them (e.g. Pete Dye architecture).

I'm sure there is more but it was a lot of info.

From the data tables presented, if I had to pick one golfer, I'd go with Ghim but more review of the data is needed. Maybe look at most recent performance as well.

What did I miss Rudy? A lot I can assume. But, it gets me started on a sport I have no familiarity with.

I don't consider sand saves important. I was just combining stats. Ill have my full model soon

Probably tmw