LT Profits
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2023
- Messages
- 6,226
Current: Nationals / Reds OVER 10.5 -113 (Both Heritage and Bookmaker)
I bet this at -108 at Bookmaker earlier
Look for a high-scoring affair in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park Friday when Patrick Corbin and the Nationals visit Graham Ashcraft and the Reds.
One of Worst Last Three Years
Only on a bad team like Washington can Corbin maintain a rotation spot as he has been one of the worst starters in baseball the last three years. After posting ghastly ERAs of 5.82 in 2021 and 6.21 last season, Corbin has “improved” that to 5.07 this year, but at the same time he owns a career worst 4.52 xFIP.
He has a weak K/BB ratio of 6.21/2,57 per 9 and has been home run prone allowing 1.50 HR/9, which is not a good omen for this stadium. Those dingers are not a surprise considering Patrick’s career low 11.7% soft-contact rate (vs. 34.0% hard contact).
Worse Numbers Than Corbin?
Ashcraft was well regarded when he was called up last season, but he underwhelmed with a 4.89 ERA and 4.09 xFIP, and 2023 has been a bigger nightmare as his key numbers are surprisingly worse than Corbin’s.
While Corbin has been on the butt end of quite a few jokes the last three years, for this season at least it is Graham that has the higher ERA (5.31), higher xFIP (4.84) and lower K/BB ratio (6.51/3.69).
Finally, do not expect much relief after the shaky starters exit as these are two of the worst bullpens in baseball in xFIP, with the Reds 28th out of 30 teams at 4.76 and the Nationals 29th at 4.88, so the offenses should have an edge from start to finish.
For All Friday Plays:
I bet this at -108 at Bookmaker earlier
Look for a high-scoring affair in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park Friday when Patrick Corbin and the Nationals visit Graham Ashcraft and the Reds.
One of Worst Last Three Years
Only on a bad team like Washington can Corbin maintain a rotation spot as he has been one of the worst starters in baseball the last three years. After posting ghastly ERAs of 5.82 in 2021 and 6.21 last season, Corbin has “improved” that to 5.07 this year, but at the same time he owns a career worst 4.52 xFIP.
He has a weak K/BB ratio of 6.21/2,57 per 9 and has been home run prone allowing 1.50 HR/9, which is not a good omen for this stadium. Those dingers are not a surprise considering Patrick’s career low 11.7% soft-contact rate (vs. 34.0% hard contact).
Worse Numbers Than Corbin?
Ashcraft was well regarded when he was called up last season, but he underwhelmed with a 4.89 ERA and 4.09 xFIP, and 2023 has been a bigger nightmare as his key numbers are surprisingly worse than Corbin’s.
While Corbin has been on the butt end of quite a few jokes the last three years, for this season at least it is Graham that has the higher ERA (5.31), higher xFIP (4.84) and lower K/BB ratio (6.51/3.69).
Finally, do not expect much relief after the shaky starters exit as these are two of the worst bullpens in baseball in xFIP, with the Reds 28th out of 30 teams at 4.76 and the Nationals 29th at 4.88, so the offenses should have an edge from start to finish.
For All Friday Plays:
