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NBA draft lottery: Resetting the race for the No. 1 pick and top prospect Victor Wembanyama
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALWhere is the NBA's race for last place headed?
In October, after presumptive 2023 No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama dazzled in a pair of matchups in the Las Vegas area against G League Ignite and fellow top prospect Scoot Henderson, one GM told ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Adrian Wojnarowski that Wembanyama's play would "start a race to the bottom like we've never seen."
Instead, many of this year's worst teams are playing their best basketball down the stretch. The Houston Rockets put together a three-game winning streak last week, highlighted by beating the Boston Celtics at home, while the San Antonio Spurs knocked off the top-seeded Denver Nuggets earlier this month.
Those results seem to indicate the NBA's 2019 lottery reform, which has given the bottom three teams in the standings equal odds at the top pick, is working as intended. However, shifting the chances for teams in the middle of the lottery has created more incentive for teams just outside the play-in race to pivot toward the future.
Let's look at how those changes are playing out as we reset the battle for NBA draft lottery positioning.
The top spot favorite
Detroit Pistons (16-57)
Having won just once since Feb. 10, the Pistons are the exception to this year's trend. Of Detroit's top five players this season by minutes per game, only rookie Jaden Ivey has seen action since March 1.
Cade Cunningham has been out since November due to a stress fracture of his tibia that required surgery. Saddiq Bey was traded at the deadline and Bojan Bogdanovic (Achilles tendinopathy) and Isaiah Stewart (hip soreness) have been sidelined lately. So too has sixth man Alec Burks (foot soreness).
Without those veterans, the Pistons have fallen to the bottom of the NBA standings with the franchise's worst winning percentage since 1979-80. It's a disappointing outcome to a season Detroit believed it might be competitive with the addition of Bogdanovic and Burks to a team that took a step forward this time last year. (The Pistons were 11-14 over their final 25 games of 2021-22.)
But barring an unexpected surge, the Pistons will be rewarded with at worst a top-five pick to join Cunningham and Ivey.
Even odds at the No. 1 pick
Houston Rockets (18-55)San Antonio Spurs (19-54)
Back when each spot in the lottery held different odds of landing the No. 1 pick, late-season runs by the league's basement dwellers were rare. Between 2012-13 and 2018-19, the final year of the old lottery odds, just four of the 21 teams that finished with bottom-three records won more than five of their final 20 games. (And one of those, the 2016-17 Brooklyn Nets, didn't control their pick due to their trade with the Celtics.)
The Rockets need just one win to surpass five in their final 20. The Spurs are two wins away. Because they're still guaranteed the same chance at the No. 1 pick and Wembanyama as long as they stay in the league's bottom three, Houston and San Antonio fans don't have to sweat out each win.
The Charlotte Hornets are four wins ahead of the Spurs and five ahead of the Rockets, an almost insurmountable difference with nine games remaining. As a result, both Houston and San Antonio have yet to shut down any key players.
The Rockets have been rewarded with the growth of No. 3 pick Jabari Smith Jr., who has shot 45% from the field after the All-Star break after hitting just 39% of his shots prior to it. No. 20 pick Malaki Branham is showing similar promise for San Antonio, averaging 13.7 PPG since Feb. 1.
All alone in fourth
Charlotte Hornets (23-50)The Hornets made their run around the All-Star break, winning their last two games before the celebratory weekend and their first three after that. In the last of those games, LaMelo Ball suffered a fractured right ankle that ended his season and Charlotte's on-court momentum. The Hornets have gone 3-7 since.
Already, Charlotte has all but clinched a bottom-four record. Meanwhile, the Hornets can't catch the Rockets and Spurs unless those teams continue winning at their recent pace. As a result, Charlotte in fourth entering the lottery is the next-likeliest outcome after Detroit in the top spot.
Could this be a race?
Orlando Magic (30-43)Portland Trail Blazers (32-40)
The Magic have also been in a category of their own nearly all season, closer to the play-in race than the league's bottom four. However, Orlando could have company. Having lost six of their past seven games, the Blazers are now just two wins ahead of the Magic in the standings.
As long as Damian Lillard is on the court and producing at a career-best level, Portland maintains a faint hope of getting back in the play-in race. The Blazers are 3.5 games back of 10th spot, but the bigger problem is how many teams they would have to jump to get from 13th to 10th.
As a result, Lillard told reporters after Sunday's loss to the LA Clippers that there "does come a point in time where you look around and you're like, 'When do you stop putting your competitive nature out front' and look at what a game of chess would look like at that point? You've got to make your decision based on that."
Play-in spots or ping-pong balls?
Indiana Pacers (33-40)Utah Jazz (35-37)
While the other teams in this range prioritize winning with the play-in tournament a possibility, the Pacers and Jazz -- expected to be near the bottom of the standings coming into the season -- continue to keep an eye on the draft.
Already, Utah's backcourt rotation pays little resemblance to the first half of the season with Malik Beasley and Mike Conley traded, Collin Sexton sidelined since late February with a hamstring strain and Jordan Clarkson missing time with minor injuries. Yet the Jazz have rolled right along with Talen Horton-Tucker putting up big numbers as a primary ball handler. They trail the No. 10 seed by a half game.
Although Indiana wasn't as future-focused at the deadline, retaining starting center Myles Turner with a new contract via renegotiation and extension, the Pacers aren't pushing for wins either. All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton has sat out due to a knee contusion and ankle sprain. As a result, Indiana has dropped 1.5 games out of the play-in, which might clarify this decision.
Pulling the plug would ensure the Pacers finish ahead of the Washington Wizards (32-41) in the reverse standings and might still give them time to catch Orlando or Portland.
