The Latest Trade Scenarios For Colts RB Jonathan Taylor

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Jonathan Taylor trade: Five offers for Colts, best team fits​

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The clock is ticking on a return to the field -- and a potential trade -- for Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, who is on the physically unable to perform list and is eligible to play in Week 5.

Taylor, 24, who is in the final season of the rookie deal he signed in 2020, requested a trade in July as he seeks a contract extension. His 2023 salary is $4.304 million, which ranks 18th among running backs. The Colts granted him permission to seek a trade in late August but didn't find a deal they liked before their self-imposed Aug. 29 deadline, which lined up with the NFL's deadline requiring teams to trim rosters to 53 players. The Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers were among the teams interested in a trade for Taylor, who didn't practice in the preseason while recovering from offseason surgery on his right ankle.

What's next for Taylor ahead of when he's eligible to return? Where could he land in a trade, and what could the Colts get for him? What happens if they don't find an offer they like before the Oct. 31 trade deadline?

We asked five NFL analysts to craft realistic trade offers for Taylor, then had Colts reporter Stephen Holder evaluate each one and pick the best offer, based on what he thinks the Indianapolis front office could do over the next few weeks. Before we get into the offers -- which include deals with four different teams -- Holder explains the latest on Taylor's situation. Here's how our simulated market played out, starting with why the team could take a deal soon and ending with a verdict:

The latest on a Jonathan Taylor trade​

The Colts have claimed they're willing to entertain the idea of extending Taylor's contract after this season, but there is clearly a reluctance to enter into a long-term deal. Reaching a different conclusion is difficult given the team's stance of refusing to open any dialogue about a new contract entering the final season of his rookie deal, as well as leaving open the possibility of using the franchise tag on Taylor in the spring. Everything in this conversation must begin with that reality.

The Colts' hesitation has resulted in a fractured relationship with Taylor. From that perspective, the motivation to trade him is obvious. If the Colts are not inclined to commit long-term and the relationship is possibly broken beyond repair, a trade is a reasonable off ramp for all involved. And if the Colts don't use the franchise tag in the spring, leaving Taylor open to explore his options, he will certainly look elsewhere, increasing the odds they lose him with no compensation.

On the other hand, Taylor's talent might make the Colts willing to take their chances that things will work out down the line. He led the NFL with 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2021 but played only 11 games and had just 861 rushing yards and four scores last season as he dealt with his right ankle injury. The context is important: They have a lack of explosive skill players and Taylor is, perhaps, the league's biggest home-run hitter at his position. Also, the idea of pairing him with rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson -- another dangerous runner -- is tantalizing.

If Taylor is moved, here's what matters: The Colts want real value from any potential trade. It's why no deal got done in August. They asked for a package of picks amounting to a first-round pick, but the reality is they'd settle for something a bit less. They seem determined to not just give him away and will play hardball, if necessary. Another complicating factor: A team that trades for Taylor will have to weigh whether to sign him to a new deal.

There's still a decent chance the Colts hang on to Taylor -- if cooler heads prevail. The early returns on Richardson look promising, which might alter the team's outlook for this season. The lack of depth at running back is also a factor. Zack Moss played 56 of 57 snaps in Week 2, providing an indication of where things stand. Taylor's big-play potential could influence how defenses play the Colts; through Week 2, they ranked 27th in the percentage of throws that resulted in explosive plays (8.3%). The presence of Taylor might help create some opportunities for more aggressive throws. -- Holder

 

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Five trade offers for Jonathan Taylor​

Cleveland Browns​

Dan Graziano's offer:

• Indianapolis gets: 2024 second-round pick
• Cleveland gets: Taylor

Inside the offer: The Browns unfortunately have a serious need they didn't have last week, having lost superstar back Nick Chubb to a season-ending left knee injury Monday night. Their identity is so tied to their run game, their quarterback looks so bad and there are aren't many backs with the character and skill set to replace everything Chubb gives them. They signed Kareem Hunt on Wednesday, but there's a reason he was still a free agent into the season. Trading for Taylor likely would mean Hunt would go back on the market.

The Colts get back a pick in the same round where they took Taylor in 2020, and they're rid of an ugly situation. The Browns still owe Chubb nearly $12 million in (non-guaranteed) salary in 2024, so the situation gets complicated if Taylor requires a new contract in order to play for them. Chubb's future is somewhat up in the air at the moment, though, and the Browns have the cap space to dump a whole bunch of money into this year if they need to do so to get a deal done for Taylor.

 

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Kansas City Chiefs​

Jeremy Fowler's offer:

• Indianapolis gets: 2024 third-round pick, 2025 third-round pick, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire
• Kansas City gets: Taylor

Inside the offer: Cleveland and Miami are sensible choices here, but both are low on future draft capital because of previous trades, making it harder to part with premium picks required to secure a player of Taylor's caliber. In this scenario, the Chiefs swoop in and get creative. Sure, I hear you, Andy Reid-doesn't-run-the-ball truthers. But this might be the year to tinker a bit.

Kansas City's receiving core is largely unproven, and tight end Travis Kelce was banged up to begin the season. The acquisition of Taylor could alleviate pressure. Meanwhile, Indy would stockpile midround picks while adding a change-of-pace back to help rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. Edwards-Helaire is a free agent in 2024 and could be a stopgap option for the Colts.

Working out a contract extension for Taylor could be arduous. The Chiefs -- who have played a hard line with defensive lineman Chris Jones and others recently -- might prefer Taylor as a short-term option they can franchise tag or let walk in free agency for a compensatory pick. They might prefer to offer four or five years on a extension for cap purposes, which could be a non-starter for Taylor, who likely wants to cash in on a shorter deal with more guaranteed money.

 

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Pittsburgh Steelers​

Seth Walder's offer:

• Indianapolis gets: 2024 fourth-round pick, RB Najee Harris
• Pittsburgh gets: Taylor

Inside the offer: Improving the Steelers' ground attack would take pressure off second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett, who looked like he could use the help Monday night. It also would build on what already was a strong roster ready to take a major step forward in the event Pickett breaks out.

Harris is a replacement-level back -- he failed to even reach 4.0 yards per carry and posted negative rush yards over expectation in each of his first two seasons -- so I'd be happy to part ways with him if I was the Steelers' general manager (don't tell the Colts I said that).


Indianapolis could sell Harris to its fan base as a bona fide running back only in his third season who represents a solid return for Taylor, along with a draft pick. From the Steelers' perspective, I would be hoping to sell Taylor on the rest of this season being a chance for him to prove his worth in a new offense and prove the Colts wrong. If all goes well, fresh contract talks could open up at the end of the season.

 

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Miami Dolphins​

Field Yates' offer:

• Indianapolis gets: Conditional 2024 second-round pick that could become a first-round pick
• Miami gets: Taylor

Inside the offer: Perhaps no team has been more closely linked to Taylor than Miami, an offense already loaded with explosive playmakers. The Dolphins have shown their willingness to move major draft capital for star players -- they've made moves for cornerback Jalen Ramsey, edge rusher Bradley Chubb and wide receiver Tyreek Hill, among other deals, since March 2022 -- and this would certainly qualify.

While Miami could soon have a strength-in-numbers backfield when Jeff Wilson Jr. returns from injured reserve to join Raheem Mostert -- who rushed for 121 yards and two scores in Week 2 -- and rookie De'Von Achane, Taylor is a different echelon of player. The Dolphins' reported interest in Taylor suggests to me it believes he is the final ingredient for a Super Bowl push.

The conditions of this proposal: The Dolphins would send the Colts their 2024 first-round pick if they make the AFC Championship Game this season. Otherwise, it would be a 2024 second-round pick.

 

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Miami Dolphins​

Mike Tannenbaum's offer:

• Indianapolis gets: 2024 second-round pick, S Jevon Holland
• Miami gets: Taylor

Inside the offer: Taylor would make an explosive offense even better, and as Yates said, he'd be an upgrade over the backs on the Miami roster. In return, Indianapolis would give up a pick likely to be in the top 50 and a young ascending safety who can be the quarterback of its defense for years to come. Holland, a second-round pick in 2021, is under contract through next season and could be looking at an extension next spring.

Taylor's potential new deal with the Dolphins could be similar to the one Derrick Henry signed with the Titans in 2020, which was for four years, $50 million with $25.5 million guaranteed. That $12.5 million average is below the top of the market -- Christian McCaffrey averages $16 million on his deal, while Alvin Kamara's averages $15 million -- but I don't see a running back hitting those numbers any time soon. This type of deal would make Taylor the NFL's third-highest-paid back, which is a compromise. Miami would have to get creative to make sure Taylor's contract fits into the salary cap this year.

 

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The verdict: The Colts accept Yates' Dolphins offer​

This is a risky proposition for Indianapolis. If Miami's regular-season success continues but it doesn't make the AFC title game, the Colts could wind up with the compensation being a late second-rounder. Adding Taylor would seem to significantly boost the Dolphins' odds of reaching the title game, though, thus sending the Colts a coveted first-round pick. That would position them to add an impact offensive playmaker with the pick next spring -- something they could certainly use. It's a high-risk, high-reward approach, but the kind the Colts can afford.

The offers that included players were enticing, as the Colts actually discussed proposed deals that included an exchange of players with Green Bay and Miami before the season, according to sources. They don't have an urgent need at safety, however, which makes Tannenbaum's offer that included Holland less appealing.


They also haven't operated with any urgency at the running back position given the fact they've abstained from any notable acquisitions there in Taylor's absence. That, plus the Colts' contract stance with Taylor, makes Walder's offer that included Harris an odd fit. Would Indianapolis be any more willing to extend Harris in a year or two?

If an interesting receiver had been offered, the choice might have been different, seeing how the Colts discussed options at the position with the Packers and Dolphins. Moving forward, they will have to decide whether they want to add some running back depth behind Moss.

In the long term, here's a fun possibility: If the Colts came away from this trade with a first-round pick, they would possess both the salary cap flexibility and draft capital to make an aggressive offseason trade for a marquee player, like they did for defensive tackle DeForest Buckner in 2020. -- Holder