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By: Doug Upstone
It was another great night for underdogs in the playoffs, as they swept the board in the NBA and NHL as we discuss. Aaron Rodgers is getting his wish of surrounding himself with former teammates in the Big Apple.
Will Jordy Nelson come out of retirement? While Yankees fans always want to blame GM Brian Cashman when they are unhappy, we explain the current real problem. This and a boatload of free picks in various forms and a question we are posing to you about baseball.
About Last Night…
NBA
The New York Knicks were 6.5-point favorites yesterday morning when the news dropped that Jimmy Butler would not play. That led to an avalanche of Knicks wagers and they closed at -10. Miami had other ideas and they were ahead a good chunk of the game at MSG, whose fans were very bewildered. New York made a late run to win by 6, but if you are a fan of the Blue and Orange, you are very nervous about the two contests in Miami.Golden State made 15 more threes than the Lakers (that’s 45 points for you counting at home) and still lost by five points.
The Warriors small ball kept them in the game, but their lack of size led to 10 L.A. blocked shots and Steve Kerr’s club didn’t attack the Lakers in those attempts. Golden was only 5-for-6 at the free throw line and was outscored by 20 points at the charity stripe. That few fouls called at home will not be acceptable by the Warriors heading into Game 2.
NHL
The bizarre world of Stanley Cup road teams and mostly underdogs winning continued last night with Florida and Seattle winning their second-round opening games.Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger gave up four goals in the first period leaving his team trailing 4-2. But 38-year-old Joe Pavelski played for the first time in the playoffs for the Stars and scored four times. But as has been the case the entire postseason, the visitor got the game-winning goal in OT.
Crazy as it gets.
MLB
In what could only be described as the weirdness of baseball, the two best teams in each league, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh squared off, with the Rays winning 4-1 as -155 home favorites. Interesting to see if the Pirates can take at least one contest.After losing eight straight at home to Toronto, Boston has pulled off two late-inning triumphs over the Blue Jays. The Jays' once red-hot bullpen has been hit hard in three consecutive losses. Can the Red Sox pull off the sweep?
The Yankees finally got back in the win column, beating Cleveland 4-2. New York is 7-0 when Gerrit Cole starts and he has an ERA of 1.35. That has not happened in a while in the Bronx.
Baltimore beat Kansas City, which is not a shocker, but this might be. As great as Tampa Bay has been at 24-6, winning 80% of their games, the Orioles are only 3.5 games behind them at 20-9.
Trendy Talk
NBA
- Boston is 4-16 ATS revenging a straight-up loss as a favorite.
- L.A. Lakers are 6-17 ATS after covering four of their last five against the spread. (Thursday)
NHL
- Carolina is 10-3 Under in home games after allowing one goal or less in their previous game.
- Vegas is 3-10 in home games after scoring three goals or more in four straight games.
- Florida is 7-1 Over having won four of their last five games. (Thursday)
- Dallas is 6-0 Over in home games revenging a loss as a home favorite. (Thursday)
MLB
- St. Louis is 3-15 in night games this season.
- Boston is 13-34 playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) the last two seasons.
- Milwaukee is 19-5 Over after scoring three runs or less in two straight games.
- Minnesota is 10-24 against the run line in road games having lost two of their last three games.
- Logan Gilbert and the Mariners are 13-3 in road games in the first half of the season since 2021.
- Logan Webb and the Giants are 0-10 as an underdog of +100 to +150.
What to Watch For and Win (Hopefully)
NBA
We have just two games in the middle of this week with the 76ers vs. Celtics Wednesday and the Lakers. vs. Warriors Thursday in a pair of Game 2s. We did research about who wins and covers for your NBA picks.MLB
Do you want lots of free MLB picks, parlays, and props? We have that all covered for Wednesday and Thursday action on the diamond.NHL
Road teams are an incredible 33-19 in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Will that continue for the next two nights? See what our experts surmise for your NHL picks.Golf
This week is the Wells Fargo Championship and we have odds analysis and a betting preview along with free picks.The Buzz
NFL – Setting Up Green Bay East
With the trade of Aaron Rodgers to the Jets, New York now has signed Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. How long before Marcedes Lewis joins the party?MLB – Yankees Cannot Shake Injuries
If you are wondering why New York is laboring to stay .500, look at this list of injuries. Aaron Judge, Scott Effross (Tommy John), Giancarlo Stanton, Jonathan Loaisiga, Josh Donaldson, Luis Severino, Tommy Kahnle, Lou Trivino (Tommy John), and Carlos Rodon.Yesterday, it was announced Rodon now has a back ailment and his return this month is now a question mark.
NBA – Chris Paul Sidelined in the Playoffs Again
An all too familiar scene for the Phoenix Suns happened Monday as Chris Paul pulled a groin and is out at least three games. An already thin Suns bench became more so and it’s hard to imagine Phoenix coming back down 0-2 against Denver no matter what Kevin Durant and Devin Booker do scoring-wise.Top Betting System
MLB - Mariners (-170) vs. Athletics
Play On Road favorites with a moneyline of -125 or more like Seattle, batting an ice-cold .190 or worse over their last five games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games. The logic is they are this size a road favorite and are bound to start hitting better. Match that with a dependable bullpen and that should be a winner. This system is 37-6,
Out the Door
MLB – Vegas, You Sure You Want This?
As Brent Musburger used to say, “You are Looking Live …”.
MLB – It’s May 3rd, Do You Think These Teams Will Be Leading Their Divisions at the All-Star Break and How Many?
- NL East - Braves
- NL Central - Pirates
- NL West - Dodgers
- AL East - Rays
- AL Central - Twins
- AL West - Rangers
What Bettors Like – Play or Fade?
NBA Top 1 Bet by Percentage - Highest First (53-33-1 Record 33-17 Run)
- Warriors (Thursday)
MLB - Top 5 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (40-24 Record)
- Mariners
- Mets Game 2
- Angels
- Orioles
- Orioles/Royals Over
NHL Top 3 Bets by Percentage - Highest First (50-38 Record and 26-17 Run)
- Oilers/Golden Knights Over
- Panthers/Maple Leafs Over (Thursday and below)
- Kraken/Stars Over
Let’s get some winners! See you back here Friday.
